IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v189y2025ics0305750x25000087.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

When the State steps down: Reduced police surveillance and gang-related deaths in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Mancha, André

Abstract

Violent crime is prevalent in developing countries, requiring substantial investments in law enforcement. This paper shows how police surveillance is crucial to deterring homicides in violent areas. I investigate the impact of reduced law enforcement on crime by leveraging data on police strikes, violent deaths, victims’ records, and criminal groups. Following a police strike, homicides in Brazilian states increase temporarily by 45%, and 88% of deaths in neighborhoods with many criminal groups are of suspected gang members. My theoretical model describes the mechanism behind increased killings, demonstrating that police strike amplifies the expected gains from gang conflicts and retaliation. This pushes criminals to attack rivals, even when territories are evenly divided.

Suggested Citation

  • Mancha, André, 2025. "When the State steps down: Reduced police surveillance and gang-related deaths in Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:189:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000087
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X25000087
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106925?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2011. "Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2157-2181, August.
    2. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    3. Christopher Blattman & Gustavo Duncan & Benjamin Lessing & Santiago Tobón, 2025. "Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(3), pages 1497-1531.
    4. Pinotti, Paolo & Bhalotra, Sonia & Britto, Diogo & Sampaio, Breno, 2021. "Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Novaes, Lucas M., 2024. "The Violence of Law-and-Order Politics: The Case of Law Enforcement Candidates in Brazil," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    7. Diogo G. C. Britto & Paolo Pinotti & Breno Sampaio, 2022. "The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1393-1423, July.
    8. Klick, Jonathan & Tabarrok, Alexander, 2005. "Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 267-279, April.
    9. Cl'ement de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultf{oe}uille, 2020. "Difference-in-Differences Estimators of Intertemporal Treatment Effects," Papers 2007.04267, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    10. Jonathan Roth & Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna, 2023. "Efficient Estimation for Staggered Rollout Designs," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(4), pages 669-709.
    11. Derek Deadman & Ziggy MacDonald, 2004. "Offenders as victims of crime?: an investigation into the relationship between criminal behaviour and victimization," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 53-67, February.
    12. Trudeau, Jessie, 2022. "Limiting aggressive policing can reduce police and civilian violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    13. Justin McCrary, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1236-1243, September.
    14. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    15. Keith Finlay & Michael Mueller‐Smith & Brittany Street, 2023. "Criminal Justice Involvement, Self‐Employment, and Barriers in Recent Public Policy," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 11-34, January.
    16. Melissa Dell, 2015. "Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(6), pages 1738-1779, June.
    17. Levitt, Steven D, 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 270-290, June.
    18. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    19. Gabriela Calderón & Gustavo Robles & Alberto Díaz-Cayeros & Beatriz Magaloni, 2015. "The Beheading of Criminal Organizations and the Dynamics of Violence in Mexico," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 59(8), pages 1455-1485, December.
    20. Magaloni, Beatriz & Franco-Vivanco, Edgar & Melo, Vanessa, 2020. "Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 552-572, May.
    21. Steven D. Levitt, 2002. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1244-1250, September.
    22. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    23. Vicente Cardoso & Marcelo Resende, 2018. "Police and Crime: Further Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 7064, CESifo.
    24. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    25. Rafael Di Tella & Ernesto Schargrodsky, 2004. "Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 115-133, March.
    26. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1981. "On the Usefulness of Controlling Individuals: An Economic Analysis of Rehabilitation, Incapacitation, and Deterrence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 307-322, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mikdash, Maya & Zaiour, Reem, 2024. "The impact of police shootings on gun violence and civilian cooperation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2022. "The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Philip A. Curry & Anindya Sen & George Orlov, 2016. "Crime, apprehension and clearance rates: Panel data evidence from Canadian provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 481-514, May.
    4. Cho, Sungwoo & Gonçalves, Felipe & Weisburst, Emily, 2021. "Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 14907, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Anna Harvey, 2020. "Applying regression discontinuity designs to American political development," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(3), pages 377-399, December.
    6. Trudeau, Jessie, 2022. "Limiting aggressive policing can reduce police and civilian violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Cheng, Cheng & Long, Wei, 2018. "Improving police services: Evidence from the French Quarter Task Force," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-18.
    8. Fabbri, Marco & Klick, Jonathan, 2021. "The ineffectiveness of ‘observe and report’ patrols on crime," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Emiliano Tealde, 2015. "Do Police Displace Crime? The Effect of the Favela Pacification Program in Rio de Janeiro," Department of Economics University of Siena 717, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    10. Laura Jaitman, 2019. "Frontiers in the economics of crime: lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-36, December.
    11. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    12. Reyes, Luis Carlos, 2014. "Estimating the Causal Effect of Forced Eradication on Coca Cultivation in Colombian Municipalities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 70-84.
    13. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin & Robert Witt, 2010. "Crime Displacement and Police Interventions: Evidence from London's "Operation Theseus"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Crime: Lessons For and From Latin America, pages 359-374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Steven N. Durlauf & Daniel S. Nagin, 2010. "The Deterrent Effect of Imprisonment," NBER Chapters, in: Controlling Crime: Strategies and Tradeoffs, pages 43-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Paul Heaton & Priscillia Hunt & John MacDonald & Jessica Saunders, 2016. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Private Law Enforcement: Evidence from University Police," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 889-912.
    16. Alexander F. McQuoid & J. Britton Haynes Jr., 2017. "The Thin (Red) Blue Line: Police Militarization and Violent Crime," Departmental Working Papers 56, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    17. Harvey, Anna & Mattia, Taylor, 2024. "Reducing racial disparities in crime victimization: Evidence from employment discrimination litigation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    18. O’Flaherty, Brendan & Sethi, Rajiv, 2015. "Urban Crime," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1519-1621, Elsevier.
    19. Elisa Facchetti, 2025. "Police infrastructure, police performance, and crime: evidence from austerity cuts," IFS Working Papers W24/16, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Amanda Ross & Anne Walker, 2014. "Low Priority Laws and the Allocation of Police Resources," Working Papers 14-06, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:189:y:2025:i:c:s0305750x25000087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.