IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eejocm/v48y2023ics1755534523000295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Trinh, Tra Thi
  • Munro, Alistair

Abstract

Forecasting the future impact of climate change on migration is difficult, for many reasons, including the interactive and dynamic nature of many decisions and the heterogeneity of behavior. One popular solution, agent-based models (ABM) cope well with dynamics and heterogeneity, but often lack rigorous foundations in terms of individual behavior. Moreover, given limited exposure to actual climate change, it can be a challenge to build adequate behavioral models of migration choice based on historical data. To tackle this issue, we build an ABM of future migration using a bespoke choice experiment (CE) designed to examine intention to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In the CE, respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income gain from migration, migration networks, neighbors' choice, and crop choice restriction. The simulation runs to 2050 and is based on two scenarios of future global emissions of greenhouse gases—Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results suggest potentially high levels of migration as a result of climate change and the particular importance of positive feedback from pre-existing migration and neighbor's choices. The results also suggest that crop-restriction regulations have a significant impact on migration for coastal provinces of VMD. Finally, we find that migration drivers vary significantly across provinces, which suggests the policymakers point to targeted action for each province. In summary, the study demonstrates how integrating CE into ABM can foster the predictive modeling of climate-induced migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Trinh, Tra Thi & Munro, Alistair, 2023. "Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100428
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755534523000295
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100428?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ibanez, Marcela & Carlsson, Fredrik, 2010. "A survey-based choice experiment on coca cultivation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 249-263, November.
    2. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    3. Fu, Zhaohao & Hao, Lingxin, 2018. "Agent-based modeling of China’s rural–urban migration and social network structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1061-1075.
    4. Tra Thi Trinh & Alistair Munro, 2022. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    5. Michał Burzyński & Christoph Deuster & Frédéric Docquier & Jaime de Melo, 2022. "Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1145-1197.
    6. Clark Gray & Richard Bilsborrow, 2013. "Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(4), pages 1217-1241, August.
    7. An T. N. Dang & Lalit Kumar & Michael Reid, 2020. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    8. Koubi, Vally & Spilker, Gabriele & Schaffer, Lena & Bernauer, Thomas, 2016. "Environmental Stressors and Migration: Evidence from Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 197-210.
    9. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Cristina Cattaneo & Michel Beine & Christiane J Fröhlich & Dominic Kniveton & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Marina Mastrorillo & Katrin Millock & Etienne Piguet & Benjamin Schraven, 2019. "Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 189-206.
    11. Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens, 2016. "Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-97, February.
    12. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    13. Tijan L. Bah & Cátia Batista, 2018. "Understanding willingness to migrate illegally: Evidence from a lab in the field experiment," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp1803, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    14. Stefan Holm & Renato Lemm & Oliver Thees & Lorenz M. Hilty, 2016. "Enhancing Agent-Based Models with Discrete Choice Experiments," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 19(3), pages 1-3.
    15. Thanh P. Bui & Katsushi S. Imai, 2019. "Determinants of Rural-Urban Inequality in Vietnam: Detailed Decomposition Analyses Based on Unconditional Quantile Regressions," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2610-2625, December.
    16. van Dalen, H.P. & Henkens, C.J.I.M., 2013. "Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands 2005-2010," Other publications TiSEM 511bab2c-f350-423e-9843-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Lall, Somik V. & Selod, Harris & Shalizi, Zmarak, 2006. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries : a survey of theoretical predictions and empirical findings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3915, The World Bank.
    18. Chau Trinh Nguyen & Frank Scrimgeour, 2022. "Measuring the impact of climate change on agriculture in Vietnam: A panel Ricardian analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 37-51, January.
    19. Le Pira, Michela & Marcucci, Edoardo & Gatta, Valerio & Inturri, Giuseppe & Ignaccolo, Matteo & Pluchino, Alessandro, 2017. "Integrating discrete choice models and agent-based models for ex-ante evaluation of stakeholder policy acceptability in urban freight transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 13-25.
    20. Roman Hoffmann & Anna Dimitrova & Raya Muttarak & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Jonas Peisker, 2020. "A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(10), pages 904-912, October.
    21. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    22. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2013. "Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands, 2005-10," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 225-241, July.
    23. R G Sargent, 2013. "Verification and validation of simulation models," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 12-24, February.
    24. K. Warner & M. Hamza & A. Oliver-Smith & F. Renaud & A. Julca, 2010. "Climate change, environmental degradation and migration," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(3), pages 689-715, December.
    25. Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz & Parris, Brett W., 2012. "Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 763-780, December.
    26. Fredrik Carlsson & Peter Martinsson, 2003. "Design techniques for stated preference methods in health economics," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 281-294, April.
    27. Etienne Piguet, 2010. "Linking climate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 517-524, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simone Bertoli & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport & Ilse Ruyssen, 2022. "Weather shocks and migration intentions in Western Africa: insights from a multilevel analysis [Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 289-323.
    2. Beine, Michel & Jeusette, Lionel, 2021. "A meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 293-344, September.
    3. Els BEKEART & Ilse RUYSSEN & Sara SALOMONE, 2021. "Domestic and International Migration Intentions in Response to Environmental Stress: A Global Cross-country Analysis," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 383-436, September.
    4. Luis G. BECERRA - VALBUENA & Katrin MILLOCK, 2021. "Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 437-477, September.
    5. Tra Thi Trinh & Alistair Munro, 2022. "Climate change and migration decisions: A choice experiment from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," GRIPS Discussion Papers 22-07, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    6. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Truong, N.T. Khuong & Le, Kien, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: The importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 326-336.
    8. Marchetta, Francesca & Sahn, David E. & Tiberti, Luca & Dufour, Johany, 2021. "Heterogeneity in Migration Responses to Climate Shocks: Evidence from Madagascar," IZA Discussion Papers 14052, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Maya Moore & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2023. "Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2955-2975, April.
    10. Berlemann, Michael & Haustein, Erik & Steinhardt, Max F., 2021. "From Stocks to Flows – Evidence for the Climate-Migration-Nexus," IZA Discussion Papers 14450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2021. "How climate change leads to emigration: Conditional and long‐run effects," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2323-2349, November.
    12. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Katrin Millock, 2021. "Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi," Post-Print halshs-03325853, HAL.
    13. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Katrin Millock, 2021. "Gendered migration responses to drought in Malawi," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03325853, HAL.
    14. Nathan Delacrétaz & Bruno Lanz & Amir Delju & Etienne Piguet & Martine Rebetez, 2021. "Impacts of rainfall shocks on out-migration are moderated more by per capita income than by agricultural output in Turkiye," IRENE Working Papers 21-06, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    16. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. John Aoga & Juhee Bae & Stefanija Veljanoska & Siegfried Nijssen & Pierre Schaus, 2020. "Impact of weather factors on migration intention using machine learning algorithms," Papers 2012.02794, arXiv.org.
    19. Kerstin K. Zander & Stephen T. Garnett & Harald Sterly & Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson & Barbora Šedová & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Carmen Richerzhagen & Hunter S. Baggen, 2022. "Topic modelling exposes disciplinary divergence in research on the nexus between human mobility and the environment," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Migration; Choice experiment; Drought and saline intrusion; Flood; Agent-based model; Vietnam; Mekong rivers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-choice-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.