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Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model

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  • Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz
  • Parris, Brett W.

Abstract

Bangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz & Parris, Brett W., 2012. "Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 763-780, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:17:y:2012:i:06:p:763-780_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, Peter & Ali, Snigdha, 2014. "Exploring local perceptions of climate change impact and adaptation in rural Bangladesh:," IFPRI discussion papers 1322, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Anna Klabunde & Frans Willekens, 2016. "Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 73-97, February.
    3. Dobes Leo & Jotzo Frank & Stern David I., 2014. "The Economics of Global Climate Change: A Historical Literature Review," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 281-320, December.
    4. K S Kavi Kumar & Brinda Viswanathan, 2012. "Weather Variability And Agriculture: Implications For Long And Short-Term Migration In India," Working Papers id:5173, eSocialSciences.
    5. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:04:y:2013:i:02:n:s2010007813500073 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Linjun Lu & Qing-Chang Lu & ABM Sertajur Rahman, 2015. "Residence and Job Location Change Choice Behavior under Flooding and Cyclone Impacts in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.

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