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Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Miriam Manchin
  • Alex Newnham
  • Elena Nikolova

Abstract

We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. Using high-resolution data, we find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today’s migrants in a given location by 0.48 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations and are driven by climate variability during growing season, suggesting that climate risk affected migration through agriculture. Our findings suggest that the persistent effect of historical climate risk on current migration patterns is through differences in historical prosperity.

Suggested Citation

  • Miriam Manchin & Alex Newnham & Elena Nikolova, 2025. "Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration," Development Working Papers 503, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:csl:devewp:503
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    File URL: https://dagliano.unimi.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/WP503.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Migration; Climate Risk; Historical Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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