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The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France

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  • Guillaume Blanc

Abstract

This research shows that secularization accounts for the remarkably early fertility decline in France. The demographic transition, a turning point in history and an essential condition for development, first took hold in France, before the French Revolution and more than a century earlier than in any other country. Why it happened so early is one of the ‘big questions of history’ because it challenges traditional explanations and because of data limitations. Using a novel dataset crowdsourced from publicly available genealogies, I comprehensively document, for the first time, the decline in fertility and its timing with a representative sample of the population. Then, drawing on a wide range of sources and data, I document an important process of secularization in the eighteenth century and find a strong and robust association with the timing of the transition across regions and individuals. Finally, I discuss the persistent impact of the transition on economic growth and explore the drivers of secularization.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Blanc, 2023. "The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2309, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Paula E. Gobbi & Anne Hannusch & Pauline Rossi, 2026. "Family Institutions and the Global Fertility Transition," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 40(1), pages 47-70, Winter.
    3. Galor, Oded, 2026. "The Wealth of Nations: Origins of Prosperity and Seeds of Inequality," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1704, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Victor Gay & Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2023. "Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Changeand Fertility Decline," Working Papers ECARES 2023-20, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emilio Zagheni, 2025. "Analysing Biases in Genealogies Using Demographic Microsimulation," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Seung-Hun Chung & Neha Deopa & Kritika Saxena & Lyman Stone, 2025. "Religiously inspired baby boom: evidence from Georgia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-31, March.
    7. Omenti, Riccardo & Alexander, Monica & Barban, Nicola, 2025. "Bayesian Indirect Estimation of Historical Fertility in Europe and US Using Online Genealogical Data," OSF Preprints ygt2k_v1, Center for Open Science.
    8. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Vegard Skirbekk & Jessica Nisén, 2024. "Secularization and low fertility: how declining church membership changes couples and their childbearing," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-040, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. Oded Galor, 2024. "Unified Growth Theory: Roots of Growth and Inequality in the Wealth of Nations," NBER Working Papers 33288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Miriam Manchin & Alex Newnham & Elena Nikolova, 2025. "Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration," Development Working Papers 503, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    11. Galor, Oded, 2024. "Unified Growth Theory: Engines of Growth and Inequality in the Wealth of Nations," IZA Discussion Papers 17491, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. Henrik-Alexander Schubert & Christian Dudel, 2025. "Subnational birth squeezes: male-female TFR differences across eight high- and middle-income countries over time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2025-025, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Guillaume Blanc & Romain Wacziarg, 2025. "Malthusian Migrations," NBER Working Papers 33542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

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