IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/ygt2k_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian Indirect Estimation of Historical Fertility in Europe and US Using Online Genealogical Data

Author

Listed:
  • Omenti, Riccardo
  • Alexander, Monica
  • Barban, Nicola

Abstract

A growing number of social scientists use online genealogical data as an alternative digital census of historical populations for the examination of past demographic dynamics. However, the non-representativeness of this data source requires the development of bias-adjusting methods to obtain accurate demographic estimates. We address this challenge by proposing an indirect estimation framework to investigate fertility trends in seven European countries and the United States of America for the historical period 1751-1910, integrating data from the big genealogical database FamiLinx with more traditional data sources. The proposed methods produce total fertility rate (TFR) estimates using minimal data, specifically women aged 15-49 and children under age 5, while accounting for child mortality, age-specific fertility patterns, and biases inherent in online genealogical data. Our methodological approaches demonstrate that, when combined with reliable demographic data, online genealogical data can be fruitfully used to examine fertility patterns in countries and historical periods lacking well-functioning national civil registration systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Omenti, Riccardo & Alexander, Monica & Barban, Nicola, 2025. "Bayesian Indirect Estimation of Historical Fertility in Europe and US Using Online Genealogical Data," OSF Preprints ygt2k_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ygt2k_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ygt2k_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/687e1638951849b28af72113/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/ygt2k_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mathew E. Hauer & Carl P. Schmertmann, 2020. "Population Pyramids Yield Accurate Estimates of Total Fertility Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 221-241, February.
    2. J. David Hacker, 2016. "Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(6), pages 1657-1692, December.
    3. Martin Dribe & J. David Hacker & Francesco Scalone, 2014. "The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: A comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(2), pages 135-149, July.
    4. Hannaliis Jaadla & Alice Reid & Eilidh Garrett & Kevin Schürer & Joseph Day, 2020. "Revisiting the Fertility Transition in England and Wales: The Role of Social Class and Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1543-1569, August.
    5. Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2020. "A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1171-1192, June.
    6. Mark C. Wheldon & Adrian E. Raftery & Samuel J. Clark & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Reconstructing Past Populations With Uncertainty From Fragmentary Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 108(501), pages 96-110, March.
    7. Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emilio Zagheni, 2023. "Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    8. Yuan Hsiao & Lee Fiorio & Jonathan Wakefield & Emilio Zagheni, 2024. "Modeling the Bias of Digital Data: An Approach to Combining Digital With Official Statistics to Estimate and Predict Migration Trends," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 53(4), pages 1905-1943, November.
    9. Jakub Bijak & John Bryant, 2016. "Bayesian demography 250 years after Bayes," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(1), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Guillaume Blanc, 2024. "Demographic Transitions, Rural Flight, and Intergenerational Persistence: Evidence from Crowdsourced Genealogies," Lewis Lab Working Papers Series 0006, Arthur Lewis Lab, The University of Manchester.
    11. Chen-Hao Hsu & Oliver Posegga & Kai Fischbach & Henriette Engelhardt, 2021. "Examining the trade-offs between human fertility and longevity over three centuries using crowdsourced genealogy data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(8), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Monica Alexander & Leontine Alkema, 2018. "Global estimation of neonatal mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical splines regression model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(15), pages 335-372.
    13. Ridhi Kashyap, 2021. "Has demography witnessed a data revolution? Promises and pitfalls of a changing data ecosystem," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(S1), pages 47-75, December.
    14. Colasurdo, Andrea & Omenti, Riccardo, 2024. "Using Online Genealogical Data for Demographic Research: An Empirical Examination of the FamiLinx Database," SocArXiv 62yxm, Center for Open Science.
    15. Weir, David R., 1984. "Fertility Transition in Rural France, 1740–1829," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 612-614, June.
    16. John Wilmoth & Sarah Zureick & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Mie Inoue & Cheryl Sawyer, 2012. "A flexible two-dimensional mortality model for use in indirect estimation," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(1), pages 1-28.
    17. Marco Cozzani & Saverio Minardi & Nicola Barban & Giulia Corti, 2023. "Birth month and adult lifespan: A within-family, cohort, and spatial examination using FamiLinx data in the United States (1700–1899)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(9), pages 201-218.
    18. Monica Alexander & Emilio Zagheni & Magali Barbieri, 2017. "A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(6), pages 2025-2041, December.
    19. Guillaume Blanc, 2023. "The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2309, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. Nina Cesare & Hedwig Lee & Tyler McCormick & Emma Spiro & Emilio Zagheni, 2018. "Promises and Pitfalls of Using Digital Traces for Demographic Research," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(5), pages 1979-1999, October.
    21. Andrea Colasurdo & Riccardo Omenti, 2024. "Using online genealogical data for demographic research: An empirical examination of the FamiLinx database," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(41), pages 1299-1350.
    22. repec:osf:socarx:62yxm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Catherine Linard & Marius Gilbert & Robert W Snow & Abdisalan M Noor & Andrew J Tatem, 2012. "Population Distribution, Settlement Patterns and Accessibility across Africa in 2010," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miriam Manchin & Alex Newnham & Elena Nikolova, 2025. "Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration," Development Working Papers 503, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    2. Andrea Colasurdo & Riccardo Omenti, 2024. "Using online genealogical data for demographic research: An empirical examination of the FamiLinx database," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(41), pages 1299-1350.
    3. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & James Raymer, 2025. "Multiregional Population Forecasting: A Unifying Probabilistic Approach for Modelling the Components of Change," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 41(1), pages 1-44, December.
    4. Andrea Tamburini & Arkadiusz Wi?niowski & Dilek Yildiz, 2023. "Bayesian multi-dimensional mortality reconstruction," VID Working Papers 2305, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    5. Nina Boberg-Fazlic & Markus Lampe & Pablo Martinelli Lasheras & Paul Sharp, 2020. "Winners and Losers from Enclosure: Evidence from Danish Land Inequality 1682-1895," Working Papers 0178, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    6. Alexander, Monica, 2018. "Deaths without denominators: using a matched dataset to study mortality patterns in the United States," SocArXiv q79ye, Center for Open Science.
    7. Blanc, Guillaume & Wacziarg, Romain, 2020. "Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. repec:osf:socarx:62yxm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rachel S. Franklin & Jacques Poot, 2021. "Guest Editorial: Spatial demography in regional science," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 139-141, April.
    10. Carl P. Schmertmann & Marcos R. Gonzaga, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1363-1388, August.
    11. J. David Hacker & Evan Roberts, 2017. "The impact of kin availability, parental religiosity, and nativity on fertility differentials in the late 19th-century United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(34), pages 1049-1080.
    12. Boberg-Fazlić, Nina & Lampe, Markus & Martinelli Lasheras, Pablo & Sharp, Paul, 2022. "Winners and losers from agrarian reform: Evidence from Danish land inequality 1682–1895," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    13. Samuel J. Clark, 2019. "A General Age-Specific Mortality Model With an Example Indexed by Child Mortality or Both Child and Adult Mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 1131-1159, June.
    14. Monica Alexander & Kivan Polimis & Emilio Zagheni, 2022. "Combining Social Media and Survey Data to Nowcast Migrant Stocks in the United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(1), pages 1-28, February.
    15. Ameer Dharamshi & Magali Barbieri & Monica Alexander & Celeste Winant, 2025. "Jointly estimating subnational mortality for multiple populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(3), pages 71-110.
    16. Douglas R. Leasure & Ridhi Kashyap & Francesco Rampazzo & Claire A. Dooley & Benjamin Elbers & Maksym Bondarenko & Mark Verhagen & Arun Frey & Jiani Yan & Evelina T. Akimova & Masoomali Fatehkia & Rob, 2023. "Nowcasting Daily Population Displacement in Ukraine through Social Media Advertising Data," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(2), pages 231-254, June.
    17. repec:osf:socarx:syzwx_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:osf:socarx:q79ye_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. David J Sharrow & Samuel J Clark & Adrian E Raftery, 2014. "Modeling Age-Specific Mortality for Countries with Generalized HIV Epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    20. Monica Alexander & Adrian E. Raftery, 2024. "Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(1), pages 1-16.
    21. Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal & Diego Alburez-Gutierrez & Emilio Zagheni, 2023. "Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    22. Hannaliis Jaadla & Alice Reid & Eilidh Garrett & Kevin Schürer & Joseph Day, 2020. "Revisiting the Fertility Transition in England and Wales: The Role of Social Class and Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1543-1569, August.
    23. Herbert Susmann & Monica Alexander & Leontine Alkema, 2022. "Temporal Models for Demographic and Global Health Outcomes in Multiple Populations: Introducing a New Framework to Review and Standardise Documentation of Model Assumptions and Facilitate Model Compar," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 90(3), pages 437-467, December.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ygt2k_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.