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Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Tuan Anh Luong

    (IREEDS - Institute of Research in Economics, Environment and Data Science, De Monfort University)

  • Manh-Hung Nguyen

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • N.T. Khuong Truong

    (Curtin University)

  • Kien Le

    (Ho Chi Minh City Open University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which individual migration decisions in Vietnam can be driven by climate change, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual's decision to migrate. We find that doubling the amount of precipitation relative to the long-run local average reduces the probability of migration by 7.5 percent. This result could potentially be driven by individuals who work in the agriculture sector and could have experienced an increase in income as high precipitation could lead to high yield. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam as women are less likely to migrate when being affected by climate change. Policymakers could shift their focus to flood control and water management in affected areas, where people's livelihoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Tuan Anh Luong & Manh-Hung Nguyen & N.T. Khuong Truong & Kien Le, 2023. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," Post-Print hal-03980577, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03980577
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.11.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yunmeng, 2024. "Do natural disaster affect rural labor migration? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 996-1006.
    2. Kaizhi Yu & Yao Shi & Jiahan Feng, 2024. "The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Guan, Chenghua & Xu, Wanting & Yang, Peijin & Xiao, Yao & Rasul, Byann, 2025. "How does large-scale internal migration affect innovation? Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Wu, Zhiyang & Zhou, Tao & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Kong, Fanbin, 2023. "A hidden risk in climate change: The effect of daily rainfall shocks on industrial activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 161-180.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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