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A Generalized Model for Predictive Data Mining

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Listed:
  • James V. Hansen

    (Brigham Young University)

  • James B. McDonald

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

This paper describes a flexible model for predictive data mining, EGB2, which optimizes over a parameter space to fit data to a family of models based on maximum-likelihood criteria. It is also shown how EGB2 can integrate asymmetric costs of Type I and Type II errors, thereby minimizing expected misclassification costs. Importantly, it has been shown that standard methods of computing maximum-likelihood estimators are generally inconsistent when applied to sample data having different proportions of labels than are found in the universe from which the sample is drawn. We show how a choice estimator based on weighting each observation's contribution to the log-likelihood function, can contribute to estimator consistency and how this feature can be implemented in EGB2.

Suggested Citation

  • James V. Hansen & James B. McDonald, 2002. "A Generalized Model for Predictive Data Mining," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 179-186, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:infosf:v:4:y:2002:i:2:d:10.1023_a:1016050803099
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1016050803099
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-428, October.
    2. Quandt, Richard E., 1983. "Computational problems and methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 699-764, Elsevier.
    3. Clarke, Darral G. & McDonald, James B., 1992. "Generalized bankruptcy models applied to predicting consumer credit behavior," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 47-62, February.
    4. Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1988, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larsen, Bradley J. & Oswald, Florian & Reich, Gregor & Wunderli, Dan, 2012. "A test of the extreme value type I assumption in the bus engine replacement model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 213-216.

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