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Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility: Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Petra Todd

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Kenneth I. Wolpin

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper studies the performance of a methodology that can be used to evaluate the impact of new policies that radically depart from existing ones. It uses data gathered from a randomized schooling subsidy experiment in Mexico (i) to estimate and validate a dynamic behavioral model of parental decisions about fertility and child schooling, (ii) to forecast long-term program impacts that extend beyond the life of the experiment, and (iii) to assess the impact of a variety of counterfactual policies. The behavioral model is estimated using data on families in the randomized-out control group and in the treatment group prior to the experiment, both of which did not receive any subsidy. Child wages provide a valuable source of variation in the data for identifying subsidy effects. Using the estimated model, we predict the effects of school subsidies according to the schedule that was implemented under the Mexican PROGRESA program.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Todd & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2002. "Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility: Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-022, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Sep 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:03-022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lise, Jeremy & Seitz, Shannon & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs," IZA Discussion Papers 758, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Emanuela di Gropello, 2006. "Meeting the Challenges of Secondary Education in Latin America and East Asia : Improving Efficiency and Resource Mobilization," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7173, December.
    3. Sadoulet, Elisabeth & de Janvry, Alain, 2003. "Targeting and Calibrating Educational Grants for Greater Efficiency," CUDARE Working Papers 25111, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. David M. Blau & Donna B. Gilleskie, 2006. "Health insurance and retirement of married couples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 935-953, November.
    5. Valdés, Nieves, 2008. "Did PROGRESA send drop-outs back to school?," UC3M Working papers. Economics we085926, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    6. Jere R. Behrman & Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2005. "Long-Term Impacts of the Oportunidades Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Rural Youth in Mexico," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 122, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & John Rust, 2005. "Induced Entry Effects of a $1 for $2 Offset in SSDI Benefits," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-03, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    8. Costas Meghir, 2006. "Dynamic models for policy evaluation," IFS Working Papers W06/08, Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    schooling; child labor; fertility; structural estimation; social experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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