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Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments

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  • Eisenhauer, Philipp

    () (University of Chicago)

  • Heckman, James J.

    () (University of Chicago)

  • Mosso, Stefano

    () (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML) and simulated method of moments (SMM) estimation for dynamic discrete choice models. We construct and estimate a simplified dynamic structural model of education that captures some basic features of educational choices in the United States in the 1980s and early 1990s. We use estimates from our model to simulate a synthetic dataset and assess the ability of ML and SMM to recover the model parameters on this sample. We investigate the performance of alternative tuning parameters for SMM.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisenhauer, Philipp & Heckman, James J. & Mosso, Stefano, 2014. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models by Maximum Likelihood and the Simulated Method of Moments," IZA Discussion Papers 8548, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8548
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly & Huong Thu Le & Francis Mitrou & Catherine L. Taylor & Stephen R. Zubrick, 2020. "Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: the role of time investments," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1381-1418, October.
    2. Francesconi, Marco & Heckman, James J., 2016. "Symposium on Child Development and Parental Investment: Introduction," IZA Discussion Papers 9977, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Francesconi, Marco & Heckman, James J, 2015. "Symposium on Child Development and Parental Investment: Introduction," Economics Discussion Papers 16868, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Bhalotra, Sonia & Delavande, Adeline & Font-Gilabert, Paulino & Maselko, Joanna, 2020. "Maternal investments in children: the role of expected effort and returns," ISER Working Paper Series 2020-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Franco Peracchi & Claudio Rossetti, 2019. "A nonlinear dynamic factor model of health and medical treatment," EIEF Working Papers Series 1901, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2019.
    6. Fossen, Frank M. & Glocker, Daniela, 2017. "Stated and revealed heterogeneous risk preferences in educational choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 1-25.
    7. Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Andersen, Steffen & d’Astous, Philippe & H. Shore, Stephen, 2020. "Cross-Program Differences in Returns to Education and the Gender Earnings Gap," Working papers 48, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    8. Nguyen, Ha Trong & Connelly, Luke & Le, Huong Thu & Mitrou, Francis & Taylor, Catherine & Zubrick, Stephen, 2018. "Explaining the evolution of ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: The role of time investments," MPRA Paper 90534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. James J. Heckman & John Eric Humphries & Gregory Veramendi, 2018. "Returns to Education: The Causal Effects of Education on Earnings, Health, and Smoking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(S1), pages 197-246.
    10. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli & Costas Meghir & Giovanni L. Violante, 2019. "Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2569-2624.
    11. James J. Heckman & Chase O. Corbin, 2016. "Capabilities and Skills," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 342-359, July.
    12. Bruins, Marianne & Duffy, James A. & Keane, Michael P. & Smith, Anthony A., 2018. "Generalized indirect inference for discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 177-203.
    13. Heckman, James J. & Humphries, John Eric & Veramendi, Gregory, 2016. "Dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 276-292.
    14. Bo Honoré & Thomas Jørgensen & Áureo de Paula, 2020. "The informativeness of estimation moments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(7), pages 797-813, November.
    15. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly & Huong Thu Le & Francis Mitrou & Catherine L. Taylor & Stephen R. Zubrick, 0. "Ethnicity differentials in academic achievements: the role of time investments," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 0, pages 1-38.
    16. Flávio Cunha & James Heckman, 2016. "Decomposing Trends in Inequality in Earnings into Forecastable and Uncertain Components," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 31-65.
    17. Sieg, Holger & Wang, Yu, 2018. "The impact of student debt on education, career, and marriage choices of female lawyers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 124-147.
    18. Holger Sieg & Yu Wang, 2017. "The Impact of Student Debt on Education, Career, and Marriage Choices of Female Lawyers," NBER Working Papers 23453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. B. S. Potanin, 2019. "Estimating the Effect of Higher Education on an Employee’s Wage," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 319-326, May.
    20. Philipp Eisenhauer & Jano's Gabler & Lena Janys, 2021. "Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty," Papers 2103.01115, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    21. Solomon W. Polachek & Tirthatanmoy Das & Rewat Thamma-Apiroam, 2015. "Micro- and Macroeconomic Implications of Heterogeneity in the Production of Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(6), pages 1410-1455.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    returns to education; dynamic discrete choice; simulation-based estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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