IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2205.10310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard Goff

Abstract

This paper studies the identifying power of bunching at kinks when the researcher does not assume a parametric choice model. I find that in a general choice model, identifying the average causal response to the policy switch at a kink amounts to confronting two extrapolation problems, each about the distribution of a counterfactual choice that is observed only in a censored manner. I apply this insight to partially identify the effect of overtime pay regulation on the hours of U.S. workers using administrative payroll data, assuming that each distribution satisfies a weak non-parametric shape constraint in the region where it is not observed. The resulting bounds are informative and indicate a relatively small elasticity of demand for weekly hours, addressing a long-standing question about the causal effects of the overtime mandate.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard Goff, 2022. "Treatment Effects in Bunching Designs: The Impact of Mandatory Overtime Pay on Hours," Papers 2205.10310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2205.10310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2205.10310
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Kline & Melissa Tartari, 2016. "Bounding the Labor Supply Responses to a Randomized Welfare Experiment: A Revealed Preference Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 972-1014, April.
    2. Einav, Liran & Finkelstein, Amy & Schrimpf, Paul, 2017. "Bunching at the kink: Implications for spending responses to health insurance contracts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 27-40.
    3. Soren Blomquist & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang & Whitney K. Newey, 2014. "Individual heterogeneity, nonlinear budget sets, and taxable income," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Tore Olsen & Luigi Pistaferri, 2011. "Adjustment Costs, Firm Responses, and Micro vs. Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from Danish Tax Records," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 749-804.
    5. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    6. Michael Carlos Best & Anne Brockmeyer & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem, 2015. "Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(6), pages 1311-1355.
    7. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    8. John H. Johnson IV, 2003. "The Impact of Federal Overtime Legislation on Public Sector Labor Markets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(1), pages 43-69, January.
    9. Charles C. Brown & Daniel S. Hamermesh, 2019. "Wages and Hours Laws: What Do We Know? What Can Be Done?," NBER Working Papers 25942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 180-212, August.
    11. Henrik J. Kleven & Mazhar Waseem, 2013. "Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 669-723.
    12. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2005. "An IV Model of Quantile Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 245-261, January.
    13. Dora L. Costa, 2000. "Hours of Work and the Fair Labor Standards Act: A Study of Retail and Wholesale Trade, 1938–1950," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(4), pages 648-664, July.
    14. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Stephen J. Trejo, 2000. "The Demand for Hours of Labor: Direct Evidence from California," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 38-47, February.
    15. Michael Carlos Best & Anne Brockmeyer & Henrik Jacobsen Kleven & Johannes Spinnewijn & Mazhar Waseem, 2016. "Erratum: Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 303-303.
    16. Hjort, Jonas & Li, Xuan & Sarsons, Heather, 2020. "Across-Country Wage Compression in Multinationals," CEPR Discussion Papers 14465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Hart,Robert A., 2004. "The Economics of Overtime Working," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521801423, September.
    18. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    19. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonard Goff, 2022. "Identifying causal effects with subjective ordinal outcomes," Papers 2212.14622, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    2. Myunghyun Song, 2024. "Identification and Inference in General Bunching Designs," Papers 2411.03625, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marx Benjamin M., 2024. "Dynamic Bunching Estimation with Panel Data," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 225-249.
    2. Andreas R. Kostøl & Andreas S. Myhre, 2021. "Labor Supply Responses to Learning the Tax and Benefit Schedule," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3733-3766, November.
    3. Bertanha, Marinho & McCallum, Andrew H. & Seegert, Nathan, 2023. "Better bunching, nicer notching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    4. Quach, Simon, 2020. "The Labor Market Effects of Expanding Overtime Coverage," MPRA Paper 100613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Akcigit, Ufuk & Lequien, Matthieu & Stantcheva, Stefanie, 2017. "Tax simplicity and heterogeneous learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86613, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. R. Lardeux, 2018. "Who Understands The French Income Tax? Bunching Where Tax Liabilities Start," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-04, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    7. Simeon Schächtele, 2020. "Tax Responses at Low Taxable Incomes: Evidence from Germany," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 411-439, June.
    8. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    9. Drahomir Klimsa & Robert Ullmann, 2023. "Threshold-dependent tax enforcement and the size distribution of firms: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 1002-1035, August.
    10. Marcelo Bergolo & Gabriel Burdin & Mauricio De Rosa & Matias Giaccobasso & Martín Leites, 2019. "Tax bunching at the Kink in the Presence of Low Capacity of Enforcement: Evidence From Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    11. Irene Di Marzio & Sauro Mocetti & Enrico Rubolino, 2024. "The market externalities of tax evasion," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1467, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Glogowsky, Ulrich, 2021. "Behavioral responses to inheritance and gift taxation: Evidence from Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    13. Sören Blomquist & Whitney K. Newey & Anil Kumar & Che-Yuan Liang, 2021. "On Bunching and Identification of the Taxable Income Elasticity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(8), pages 2320-2343.
    14. Wian Boonzaaier & Jarkko Harju & Tuomas Matikka & Jukka Pirttilä, 2019. "How do small firms respond to tax schedule discontinuities? Evidence from South African tax registers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1104-1136, October.
    15. Myunghyun Song, 2024. "Identification and Inference in General Bunching Designs," Papers 2411.03625, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    16. Miguel Almunia & David Lopez-Rodriguez, 2018. "Under the Radar: The Effects of Monitoring Firms on Tax Compliance," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, February.
    17. Philippe Aghion & Maxime Gravoueille & Matthieu Lequien & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2017. "Tax Simplicity or Simplicity of Evasion? Evidence from Self-Employment Taxes in France," NBER Working Papers 24049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bussy, Adrien, 2023. "Corporate tax evasion: Evidence from international trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Li Liu & Ben Lockwood & Miguel Almunia & Eddy H. F. Tam, 2021. "VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and U.K. Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 151-164, March.
    20. Asatryan, Zareh & Peichl, Andreas, 2016. "Responses of firms to tax, administrative and accounting rules: Evidence from Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2205.10310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.