Scoring Rules for Subjective Probability Distributions
The theoretical literature has a rich characterization of scoring rules for eliciting the subjective beliefs that an individual has for continuous events, but under the restrictive assumption of risk neutrality. It is well known that risk aversion can dramatically affect the incentives to correctly report the true subjective probability of a binary event. Alternatively, one must carefully calibrate inferences about true subjective probabilities from elicited subjective probabilities over binary events, recognizing the incentives that risk averse agents have to report the same probability for the two outcomes and reduce the variability of payoffs from the scoring rule. We characterize the comparable implications of the general case of a risk averse agent when facing a popular scoring rule over continuous events, and find that these concerns do not apply with anything like the same force. For empirically plausible levels of risk aversion, one can reliably elicit most important features of the latent subjective belief distribution without undertaking calibration for risk attitudes.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2012|
|Date of revision:||Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (404) 651-3990
Fax: (404) 651-3996
Web page: http://excen.gsu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2014.
"Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-140.
- Glenn W. Harrison & Jimmy MartÃnez-Correa & J. Todd Swarthout, 2012. "Eliciting Subjective Probabilities with Binary Lotteries," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2012-16, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Delavande, Adeline & Giné, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2011.
"Measuring subjective expectations in developing countries: A critical review and new evidence,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 151-163, March.
- Delavande, Adeline & Gine, Xavier & McKenzie, David, 2009. "Measuring Subjective Expectations in Developing Countries: A Critical Review and New Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4824, The World Bank.
- Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr. & Robert L. Winkler, 2007. "Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1745-1755, November.
- Cox, James C & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 1995. "Inducing Risk-Neutral Preferences: Further Analysis of the Data," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 65-79, July.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2011.
"Measuring and interpreting expectations of equity returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 352-370, 04.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
- Reinhard Selten & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1999.
"Money Does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse,"
Theory and Decision,
Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 213-252, June.
- Selten, Reinhard & Abdolkarim Sadrieh & Klaus Abbink, 1995. "Money does Not Induce Risk Neutral Behavior, but Binary Lotteries Do even Worse," Discussion Paper Serie B 343, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Theo Offerman & Joep Sonnemans & Gijs Van De Kuilen & Peter P. Wakker, 2009. "A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes ," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1461-1489.
- Glenn W. Harrison & Jimmy MartÃnez-Correa & J. Todd Swarthout, 2012.
"Inducing Risk Neutral Preferences with Binary Lotteries: A Reconsideration,"
Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series
2012-02, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2013. "Inducing risk neutral preferences with binary lotteries: A reconsideration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 145-159.
- Andersen, Steffen & Fountain, John & Harrison, Glenn W. & Rutström, Elisabet E., 2009.
"Estimating Subjective Probabilities,"
05-2009, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
- Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn W. Harrison & E. Elisabet RutstrÃ¶m, 2010. "Estimating Subjective Probabilities," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2010-08, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Glenn W. Harrison & J. Todd Swarthout, 2012. "The Independence Axiom and the Bipolar Behaviorist," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2012-01, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Grether, David M., 1992.
"Testing bayes rule and the representativeness heuristic: Some experimental evidence,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 31-57, January.
- Grether, David M., 1990. "Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 724, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Holt, Charles A. & Smith, Angela M., 2009. "An update on Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 125-134, February.
- Robert F. Nau, 2006. "Uncertainty Aversion with Second-Order Utilities and Probabilities," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 136-145, January.
- repec:bla:restud:v:76:y:2009:i:4:p:1461-1489 is not listed on IDEAS
- Edi Karni, 2009. "A Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 603-606, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:exc:wpaper:2012-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (J. Todd Swarthout)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.