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An update on Bayesian updating

  • Holt, Charles A.
  • Smith, Angela M.

This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker-DeGroot-Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8F-4TGS79B-2/2/8b9a680747d300006f885bd5e6f3f03f
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 69 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 125-134

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:69:y:2009:i:2:p:125-134
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

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  1. Grether, David M., . "Recent Psychological Studies of Behavior Under Uncertainty," Working Papers 82, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  2. Goeree, Jacob & Palfrey, Thomas & Rogers, Brian & McKelvey, Richard, 2004. "Self-correcting Information Cascades," Working Papers 1197, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  3. Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J.H., 1997. "What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect," Discussion Paper 1997-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. George Wu & Richard Gonzalez, 1996. "Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1676-1690, December.
  5. Grether, David M., 1990. "Testing Bayes Rule and the Representativeness Heuristic: Some Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 724, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  6. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
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