An update on Bayesian updating
This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker-DeGroot-Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.
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References listed on IDEAS
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724, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
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