An update on Bayesian updating
This paper reports an experiment in which subjects are asked to assess probabilities for unknown events, with treatments that vary the extremity of the prior information. Probabilities are elicited using a Becker-DeGroot-Marshak procedure that does not depend on assumptions about risk aversion. The focus is on the pattern of biases in information processing.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Grether, David M., 1992.
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- Theo Offerman & Joep Sonnemans, 2004.
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Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(3), pages 533-554, October.
- Offerman, T.J.S. & Sonnemans, J.H., 1997. "What's causing overreaction? : An experimental investigation of recency and the hot hand effect," Discussion Paper 1997-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006.
"Self-Correcting Information Cascades,"
321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Goeree, Jacob & Palfrey, Thomas & Rogers, Brian & McKelvey, Richard, 2004. "Self-correcting Information Cascades," Working Papers 1197, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Jacob Goeree & Thomas Palfrey & Brian Rogers, 2004. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000153, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
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