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Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data

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Abstract

A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A "ranking" assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method issued to analyze state probability data from the Intrade political betting market. The Intrade prices of various contracts are quite close to what would be expected under the ranking assumption. Under the joint hypothesis that the Intrade price ranking is correct and the ranking assumption is correct, President Bush should not have won any state ranked below a state that he lost. He did not win any such state. The ranking assumption is also consistent with the fact that the two parties spent essentially nothing in most states in 2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2004. "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1496, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1496
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d14/d1496.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Edward H. Kaplan & Arnold Barnett, 2003. "A New Approach to Estimating the Probability of Winning the Presidency," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(1), pages 32-40, February.
    4. Strömberg, David, 2002. "Optimal Campaigning in Presidential Elections: The Probability of Being Florida," Seminar Papers 706, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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    6. Snyder, James M, 1989. "Election Goals and the Allocation of Campaign Resources," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 637-660, May.
    7. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. "Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 225-250, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electoral College victory probabilities; political betting markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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