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Scoring bank loans that may go wrong: a case study

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  • J. S. Cramer

Abstract

A bank employs logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection to identify loans thatmay go wrong. Inspection shows that the logit model is inappropriate. A bounded logit model witha ceiling of (far) less than 1 fits the data much better.
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Suggested Citation

  • J. S. Cramer, 2004. "Scoring bank loans that may go wrong: a case study," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(3), pages 365-380.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:58:y:2004:i:3:p:365-380
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2004.00127.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Slagter, E. & Cramer, J.S., 1999. "Censored regression analysis in large samples with many zero observations," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9939-A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Manski, Charles F & Lerman, Steven R, 1977. "The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(8), pages 1977-1988, November.
    3. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2015. "How is credit scoring used to predict default in China?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-1, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Annemiek Vuren & Daniel Vuuren, 2007. "Financial Incentives in Disability Insurance in the Netherlands," De Economist, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 73-98, March.
    3. J.S. Cramer, 2005. "Omitted Variables and Misspecified Disturbances in the Logit Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-084/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Medema, Lydian & Koning, Ruud H. & Lensink, Robert, 2009. "A practical approach to validating a PD model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 701-708, April.

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