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A practical approach to validating a PD model

  • Medema, Lydian
  • Koning, Ruud H.
  • Lensink, Robert

The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their credit scoring models are performing well. In this paper we take up the challenge to propose and implement a simple validation methodology that can be used by banks to validate their credit risk modelling exercise. We will contextualise the proposed methodology by applying it to a default model of mortgage loans of a commercial bank in the Netherlands.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 701-708

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:4:p:701-708
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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  1. Diebold, Francis X. & Chen, Celia, 1996. "Testing structural stability with endogenous breakpoint A size comparison of analytic and bootstrap procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 221-241, January.
  2. J.S. Cramer, 2000. "Scoring Bank Loans that may go wrong: A Case Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-090/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Dewald, William G & Thursby, Jerry G & Anderson, Richard G, 1986. "Replication in Empirical Economics: The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Project," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 587-603, September.
  5. Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
  6. Stein, Roger M., 2005. "The relationship between default prediction and lending profits: Integrating ROC analysis and loan pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1213-1236, May.
  7. Jürg M. Blum, 2007. "Why 'Basel II' May Need a Leverage Ratio Restriction," Working Papers 2007-04, Swiss National Bank.
  8. Dwyer, Douglas W. & Stein, Roger M., 2006. "Inferring the default rate in a population by comparing two incomplete default databases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 797-810, March.
  9. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  10. McCullough, B. D. & McGeary, Kerry Anne & Harrison, Teresa D., 2006. "Lessons from the JMCB Archive," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1093-1107, June.
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