IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26724.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • Chad D. Cotti
  • Charles J. Courtemanche
  • Johanna Catherine Maclean
  • Erik T. Nesson
  • Michael F. Pesko
  • Nathan Tefft

Abstract

We estimate the effect of e-cigarette tax rates on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from 2013 to 2019. We find that 90% of e-cigarette taxes are passed on to consumer retail prices. We then estimate reduced form and instrumental variables regressions to examine the effects of e-cigarette and cigarette taxes and prices on sales. We calculate an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.2 and particularly large elasticity of demand for flavored e-cigarettes. Further, we document a cigarette own-price elasticity of -0.4 and positive cross-price elasticities of demand between e-cigarettes and cigarettes, suggesting economic substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad D. Cotti & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Erik T. Nesson & Michael F. Pesko & Nathan Tefft, 2020. "The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 26724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26724
    Note: HE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26724.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2013. "Who Pays Cigarette Taxes? The Impact of Consumer Price Search," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 516-529, May.
    2. Erik Nesson, 2017. "The Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adolescent Smoking: Comparing Self-Reports and Biomarkers," American Journal of Health Economics, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 507-527, Fall.
    3. Henry Saffer & Daniel Dench & Dhaval Dave & Michael Grossman, 2018. "E-cigarettes and Adult Smoking," NBER Working Papers 24212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hamilton, Stephen F., 1999. "Tax incidence under oligopoly: a comparison of policy approaches," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 233-245, February.
    5. Dave, Dhaval & Dench, Daniel & Grossman, Michael & Kenkel, Donald S. & Saffer, Henry, 2019. "Does e-cigarette advertising encourage adult smokers to quit?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Pesko, Michael F. & Currie, Janet M., 2019. "E-cigarette minimum legal sale age laws and traditional cigarette use among rural pregnant teenagers," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 71-90.
    7. Hanson, Andrew & Sullivan, Ryan, 2009. "The Incidence of Tobacco Taxation: Evidence From Geographic Micro-Level Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 62(4), pages 677-698, December.
    8. Yuqing Zheng & Chen Zhen & Daniel Dench & James M. Nonnemaker, 2017. "U.S. Demand for Tobacco Products in a System Framework," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1086, August.
    9. Donald S. Kenkel, 2005. "Are Alcohol Tax Hikes Fully Passed Through to Prices? Evidence from Alaska," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 273-277, May.
    10. Dean R. Lillard & Andrew Sfekas, 2013. "Just passing through: the effect of the Master Settlement Agreement on estimated cigarette tax price pass-through," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 353-357, March.
    11. Friedman, Abigail S., 2015. "How does electronic cigarette access affect adolescent smoking?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 300-308.
    12. Kyle Rozema & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2017. "Taxing Consumption and the Take-up of Public Assistance: The Case of Cigarette Taxes and Food Stamps," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-27.
    13. Jérôme Adda & Francesca Cornaglia, 2006. "Taxes, Cigarette Consumption, and Smoking Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
    14. Keshar M. Ghimire & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "Medical marijuana and workers' compensation claiming," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 419-434, April.
    15. Erik Nesson, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Smokers' Responses to Tobacco Control Policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 206-225, February.
    16. Vinish Shrestha & Sara Markowitz, 2016. "The Pass-Through Of Beer Taxes To Prices: Evidence From State And Federal Tax Changes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1946-1962, October.
    17. William N. Evans & Matthew C. Farrelly, 1998. "The Compensating Behavior of Smokers: Taxes, Tar, and Nicotine," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 578-595, Autumn.
    18. Matthew Harding & Ephraim Leibtag & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2012. "The Heterogeneous Geographic and Socioeconomic Incidence of Cigarette Taxes: Evidence from Nielsen Homescan Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 169-198, November.
    19. Chaloupka, Frank J. & Warner, Kenneth E., 2000. "The economics of smoking," Handbook of Health Economics, in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 29, pages 1539-1627, Elsevier.
    20. Dhaval Dave & Bo Feng & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "The effects of e‐cigarette minimum legal sale age laws on youth substance use," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 419-436, March.
    21. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2019. "The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and E-Cigarette Taxes on Adult Tobacco Product Use," NBER Working Papers 26017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Abouk, Rahi & Adams, Scott, 2017. "Bans on electronic cigarette sales to minors and smoking among high school students," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-24.
    23. Cotti, Chad & Nesson, Erik & Tefft, Nathan, 2018. "The relationship between cigarettes and electronic cigarettes: Evidence from household panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 205-219.
    24. Chad Cotti & Erik Nesson & Nathan Tefft, 2016. "The Effects of Tobacco Control Policies on Tobacco Products, Tar, and Nicotine Purchases among Adults: Evidence from Household Panel Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 103-123, November.
    25. Besley, Timothy, 1989. "Commodity taxation and imperfect competition : A note on the effects of entry," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 359-367, December.
    26. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams & Bo Feng & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking," NBER Working Papers 26126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Stern, Nicholas, 1987. "The effects of taxation, price control and government contracts in oligopoly and monopolistic competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 133-158, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donald S. Kenkel & Sida Peng & Michael F. Pesko & Hua Wang, 2020. "Mostly harmless regulation? Electronic cigarettes, public policy, and consumer welfare," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1364-1377, November.
    2. Michael F. Pesko & Casey Warman, 2022. "Re‐exploring the early relationship between teenage cigarette and e‐cigarette use using price and tax changes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 137-153, January.
    3. Campus, Brooke & Fafard, Patrick & St. Pierre, Jessica & Hoffman, Steven J., 2021. "Comparing the regulation and incentivization of e-cigarettes across 97 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    4. Friedson, Andrew I. & Rees, Daniel I., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run," IZA Discussion Papers 13252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Salvatore Barbaro & Nathalie Neu-Yanders, 2022. "Tobacco control and optimal taxation in a changing European market landscape," Working Papers 2204, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    6. Henry Saffer & Daniel Dench & Michael Grossman & Dhaval Dave, 2020. "E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 207-228, June.
    7. Darden, Michael E. & Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Melinda Pitts, M., 2021. "The dynamics of the smoking wage penalty," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Wang, Yikai & Hagedorn, Marcus, 2020. "Differential Fiscal Policy Induced Innovations in Consumer Markets," Economics Discussion Papers 28425, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    9. Hunt Allcott & Charlie Rafkin, 2020. "Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 27000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258, June.
    2. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2019. "The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and E-Cigarette Taxes on Adult Tobacco Product Use," NBER Working Papers 26017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Cotti, Chad & Nesson, Erik & Tefft, Nathan, 2018. "The relationship between cigarettes and electronic cigarettes: Evidence from household panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 205-219.
    4. Hunt Allcott & Charlie Rafkin, 2020. "Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 27000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams & Bo Feng & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko, 2019. "The Effect of E-Cigarette Taxes on Pre-pregnancy and Prenatal Smoking," NBER Working Papers 26126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lesley Chiou & Erich Muehlegger, 2014. "Consumer Response to Cigarette Excise Tax Changes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 67(3), pages 621-650, September.
    7. Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2015. "Reservation Prices: An Economic Analysis of Cigarette Purchases on Indian Reservations," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 68(1), pages 93-118, March.
    8. Donald S. Kenkel & Sida Peng & Michael F. Pesko & Hua Wang, 2020. "Mostly harmless regulation? Electronic cigarettes, public policy, and consumer welfare," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1364-1377, November.
    9. Panayiota Lyssiotou & Elena Savva, 2021. "Who pays taxes on basic foodstuffs? Evidence from broadening the VAT base," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(1), pages 212-247, February.
    10. Rahi Abouk & Charles J. Courtemanche & Dhaval M. Dave & Bo Feng & Abigail S. Friedman & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2021. "Intended and Unintended Effects of E-cigarette Taxes on Youth Tobacco Use," NBER Working Papers 29216, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kenchington, David G. & Shohfi, Thomas D. & Smith, Jared D. & White, Roger M., 2022. "Do sin tax hikes spur cheating in interpersonal exchange?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Hyunchul Kim & Dongwon Lee, 2021. "Racial demographics and cigarette tax shifting: evidence from scanner data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 1011-1037, August.
    13. DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013. "Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
    14. Nicoletta Berardi & Patrick Sevestre & Marine Tépaut & Alexandre Vigneron, 2016. "The impact of a ‘soda tax’ on prices: evidence from French micro data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(41), pages 3976-3994, September.
    15. Erik Nesson, 2017. "Heterogeneity in Smokers' Responses to Tobacco Control Policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 206-225, February.
    16. Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees & Joseph J. Sabia, 2013. "Cigarette Taxes and How Youths Obtain Cigarettes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 66(2), pages 371-394, June.
    17. Henry Saffer & Daniel Dench & Michael Grossman & Dhaval Dave, 2020. "E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 207-228, June.
    18. Michael F. Pesko & Casey Warman, 2022. "Re‐exploring the early relationship between teenage cigarette and e‐cigarette use using price and tax changes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 137-153, January.
    19. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2013. "Tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 77-88.
    20. Aisha Baisalova, 2022. "Exploring Border Effects: Sensitivity of Cigarette Consumption to Excise Tax," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp726, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.