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The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data

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  • Chad D. Cotti
  • Charles J. Courtemanche
  • Johanna Catherine Maclean
  • Erik T. Nesson
  • Michael F. Pesko
  • Nathan Tefft

Abstract

We estimate the effect of e-cigarette tax rates on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from 2013 to 2019. We find that 90% of e-cigarette taxes are passed on to consumer retail prices. We then estimate reduced form and instrumental variables regressions to examine the effects of e-cigarette and cigarette taxes and prices on sales. We calculate an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.2 and particularly large elasticity of demand for flavored e-cigarettes. Further, we document a cigarette own-price elasticity of -0.4 and positive cross-price elasticities of demand between e-cigarettes and cigarettes, suggesting economic substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad D. Cotti & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Erik T. Nesson & Michael F. Pesko & Nathan Tefft, 2020. "The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 26724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26724
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff DeSimone & Daniel Grossman & Nicolas Ziebarth, 2023. "Regression Discontinuity Evidence on the Effectiveness of the Minimum Legal E-cigarette Purchasing Age," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 461-485.
    2. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams & Bo Feng & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "The effect of e‐cigarette taxes on pre‐pregnancy and prenatal smoking," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 908-940, September.
    3. Abouk, Rahi & Courtemanche, Charles & Dave, Dhaval & Feng, Bo & Friedman, Abigail S. & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Pesko, Michael F. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2023. "Intended and unintended effects of e-cigarette taxes on youth tobacco use," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Shamima Akter & Md. Mizanur Rahman & Thomas Rouyard & Sarmin Aktar & Raïssa Shiyghan Nsashiyi & Ryota Nakamura, 2024. "A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 8(12), pages 2367-2391, December.
    5. Donald S. Kenkel & Sida Peng & Michael F. Pesko & Hua Wang, 2020. "Mostly harmless regulation? Electronic cigarettes, public policy, and consumer welfare," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(11), pages 1364-1377, November.
    6. Michael F. Pesko & Casey Warman, 2022. "Re‐exploring the early relationship between teenage cigarette and e‐cigarette use using price and tax changes," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 137-153, January.
    7. Campus, Brooke & Fafard, Patrick & St. Pierre, Jessica & Hoffman, Steven J., 2021. "Comparing the regulation and incentivization of e-cigarettes across 97 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    8. Dave, Dhaval & Liang, Yang & Pesko, Michael F. & Phillips, Serena & Sabia, Joseph J., 2023. "Have recreational marijuana laws undermined public health progress on adult tobacco use?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Cotti, Chad D. & Courtemanche, Charles J. & Liang, Yang & Maclean, Johanna Catherine & Nesson, Erik T. & Sabia, Joseph J., 2024. "The Effect of E-Cigarette Flavor Bans on Tobacco Use," Working Papers 114, Wake Forest University, Economics Department.
    10. Friedson, Andrew I. & Rees, Daniel I., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Smoking in the Long Run," IZA Discussion Papers 13252, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Salvatore Barbaro & Nathalie Neu-Yanders, 2022. "Tobacco control and optimal taxation in a changing European market landscape," Working Papers 2204, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    12. Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "Effects of e-cigarette minimum legal sales ages on youth tobacco use in the United States," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 261-277, June.
    13. Henry Saffer & Daniel Dench & Michael Grossman & Dhaval Dave, 2020. "E-cigarettes and adult smoking: Evidence from Minnesota," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 207-228, June.
    14. Darden, Michael E. & Hotchkiss, Julie L. & Melinda Pitts, M., 2021. "The dynamics of the smoking wage penalty," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Piyush Anand & Vrinda Kadiyali, 2024. "Frontiers: Smoke and Mirrors: Impact of E-cigarette Taxes on Underage Social Media Posting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 479-487, May.
    16. Wang, Yikai & Hagedorn, Marcus, 2020. "Differential Fiscal Policy Induced Innovations in Consumer Markets," Economics Discussion Papers 28425, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    17. Hunt Allcott & Charlie Rafkin, 2020. "Optimal Regulation of E-cigarettes: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 27000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Sari, Emre & Moilanen, Mikko & Lindeboom, Maarten, 2023. "Role of grandparents in risky health behavior transmission: A study on smoking behavior in Norway," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 338(C).
    19. Michael F. Pesko & Charles J. Courtemanche & Johanna Catherine Maclean, 2020. "The effects of traditional cigarette and e-cigarette tax rates on adult tobacco product use," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 229-258, June.
    20. Henry Saffer & Selen Ozdogan & Michael Grossman & Daniel L. Dench & Dhaval M. Dave, 2024. "Comprehensive E-cigarette Flavor Bans and Tobacco Use among Youth, Young Adults, and Adults," NBER Working Papers 32534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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