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Price Isn’t Everything: Behavioral Response Around Changes In Sin Taxes

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  • Alex Rees-Jones
  • Kyle Rozema

Abstract

In traditional economic models, taxes change behavior by changing prices. In empirical analyses, factors other than price are thought to be relevant, but any nonprice factors are usually assumed to be held constant as taxes vary. We contend that violations of this assumption are expected when laws are passed changing sin taxes. In support of this claim, we document that state-level cigarette tax increases are concomitant with increases in antismoking appropriations, media coverage on smoking, lobbying efforts, and place-based smoking restrictions. The influence of these nonprice factors is easily confused with price effects, and we find evidence suggesting that controlling for them substantially reduces the estimated demand responsivity to the tax itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Rees-Jones & Kyle Rozema, 2023. "Price Isn’t Everything: Behavioral Response Around Changes In Sin Taxes," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 5-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:nattax:doi:10.1086/723093
    DOI: 10.1086/723093
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Barigozzi & Laura Cornelsen & Mario Mazzocchi, 2025. "A tax is a signal: theory and evidence," Working Papers wp1206, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Alvarado, Miriam & Penney, Tarra L. & Unwin, Nigel & Murphy, Madhuvanti M. & Adams, Jean, 2021. "Evidence of a health risk ‘signalling effect’ following the introduction of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Cotti, Chad & Courtemanche, Charles & Maclean, Joanna Catherine & Nesson, Erik & Pesko, Michael F. & Tefft, Nathan W., 2022. "The effects of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette prices and tobacco product sales: Evidence from retail panel data," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams & Bo Feng & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Michael F. Pesko, 2023. "The effect of e‐cigarette taxes on pre‐pregnancy and prenatal smoking," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 908-940, September.
    5. Crowe, Bradley & Gardner, Graham & Haughey, Cara, 2025. "The effects of restricted abortion access on IUDs and vasectomies: Evidence from Texas," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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