Do Higher Tobacco Taxes Reduce Adult Smoking? New Evidence Of The Effect Of Recent Cigarette Tax Increases On Adult Smoking
There is a general consensus among policymakers that raising tobacco taxes reduces cigarette consumption. However, evidence that tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking is relatively sparse. In this paper, we extend the literature in two ways: using data from the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements we focus on recent, large tax changes, which provide the best opportunity to empirically observe a response in cigarette consumption, and employ a novel paired difference-in-differences technique to estimate the association between tax increases and cigarette consumption. Estimates indicate that, for adults, the association between cigarette taxes and either smoking participation or smoking intensity is negative, small and not usually statistically significant. Our evidence suggests that increases in cigarette taxes are associated with small decreases in cigarette consumption and that it will take sizable tax increases, on the order of 100%, to decrease adult smoking by as much as 5%.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 52 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 18830 Brookhurst Street, Suite 304, Fountain Valley, CA 92708 USA|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0095-2583
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0095-2583|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Willard G. Manning & John Mullahy, 1999.
"Estimating Log Models: To Transform or Not to Transform?,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manning, Willard G. & Mullahy, John, 2001. "Estimating log models: to transform or not to transform?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 461-494, July.
- Matthew C. Farrelly & Jeremy W. Bray & Terry Pechacek & Trevor Woollery, 2001. "Response by Adults to Increases in Cigarette Prices by Sociodemographic Characteristics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 156-165, July.
- Lovenheim, Michael F., 2008.
"How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling,"
National Tax Journal,
National Tax Association, vol. 61(1), pages 7-33, March.
- Michael F. Lovenheim, 2007. "How Far to the Border?: The Extent and Impact of Cross-Border Casual Cigarette Smuggling," Discussion Papers 06-040, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, revised Oct 2009.
- Philip DeCicca & Donald S. Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2010.
"Who Pays Cigarette Taxes? The Impact of Consumer Price Search,"
NBER Working Papers
15942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philip DeCicca & Donald Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2013. "Who Pays Cigarette Taxes? The Impact of Consumer Price Search," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 516-529, May.
- Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2007.
"Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program,"
NBER Working Papers
12831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2007. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program," NBER Technical Working Papers 0335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James R. Hines Jr., 2007.
"Taxing Consumption and Other Sins,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 49-68, Winter.
- Stehr, Mark, 2005. "Cigarette tax avoidance and evasion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-297, March.
- David Merriman, 2010. "The Micro-geography of Tax Avoidance: Evidence from Littered Cigarette Packs in Chicago," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 61-84, May.
- DeCicca, Philip & Kenkel, Donald & Liu, Feng, 2013.
"Excise tax avoidance: The case of state cigarette taxes,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1130-1141.
- Philip DeCicca & Donald S. Kenkel & Feng Liu, 2010. "Excise Tax Avoidance: The Case of State Cigarette Taxes," NBER Working Papers 15941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Craig A. Gallet & John A. List, 2003. "Cigarette demand: a meta-analysis of elasticities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(10), pages 821-835.
- Wasserman, Jeffrey & Manning, Willard G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Winkler, John D., 1991. "The effects of excise taxes and regulations on cigarette smoking," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-64, May.
- William N. Evans & Matthew C. Farrelly, 1998. "The Compensating Behavior of Smokers: Taxes, Tar, and Nicotine," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(3), pages 578-595, Autumn.
- Lewit, Eugene M. & Coate, Douglas, 1982.
"The potential for using excise taxes to reduce smoking,"
Journal of Health Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-145, August.
- Eugene M. Lewit & Douglas Coate, 1981. "The Potential for Using Excise Taxes to Reduce Smoking," NBER Working Papers 0764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John A. Tauras, 2006. "Smoke-Free Air Laws, Cigarette Prices, and Adult Cigarette Demand," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 333-342, April.
- DeCicca, Philip & McLeod, Logan, 2008. "Cigarette taxes and older adult smoking: Evidence from recent large tax increases," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 918-929, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:52:y:2014:i:1:p:155-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.