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Estimating the Impact of Large Cigarette Tax Hikes: The Case of Maternal Smoking and Infant Birth Weight

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  • Diana S. Lien
  • William N. Evans

Abstract

Using a statistical matching procedure to choose control groups, we find that four states that adopted large cigarette tax hikes had corresponding decreases in smoking participation of pregnant women. Using the tax hike as an instrument for smoking in birth-weight equations and pooling data across experiments, we find that smoking during pregnancy doubles the chance an infant is born with a low birth weight. Our estimates are similar to singleequation estimates where maternal smoking is treated as exogenous.

Suggested Citation

  • Diana S. Lien & William N. Evans, 2005. "Estimating the Impact of Large Cigarette Tax Hikes: The Case of Maternal Smoking and Infant Birth Weight," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:40:y:2005:i:2:p373-392
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colman, Greg & Grossman, Michael & Joyce, Ted, 2003. "The effect of cigarette excise taxes on smoking before, during and after pregnancy," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1053-1072, November.
    2. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    3. William N. Evans & Jeanne S. Ringel & Diana Stech, 1999. "Tobacco Taxes and Public Policy to Discourage Smoking," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 13, pages 1-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Sumner, Daniel A, 1981. "Measurement of Monopoly Behavior: An Application to the Cigarette Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 1010-1019, October.
    5. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-161, April.
    6. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2003. "Cluster-Sample Methods in Applied Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 133-138, May.
    7. Barnett, Paul G. & Keeler, Theodore E. & Hu, Teh-wei, 1995. "Oligopoly structure and the incidence of cigarette excise taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 457-470, July.
    8. Jonathan Gruber & Botond Köszegi, 2001. "Is Addiction "Rational"? Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1261-1303.
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