Retirement Expectations and Pension Reforms
We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations and wealth accumulation decisions. We rely on self-reported expectations to measure perceived social security benefits and to a series of pension reforms as a source of exogenous variations in pension wealth. Two parameters are crucial to estimate pension wealth: the age at which workers expect to retire and the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income (the replacement rate). The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large representative sample of the Italian population, elicits these expectations from 1989 to 2000, a period spanning intense pension reforms. These reforms had different impact on different cohorts and employment groups, providing a quasi-experimental framework to study the effect of pension reforms on expectations and household saving. We find substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth. However, the Italian pension reforms of the 1990s had only limited impact on household saving rates, because people have not yet fully adjusted their expectations of future benefits
|Date of creation:||02 Feb 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Public Economics, 2006, vol. 90, pages 2167-2213|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: I-80126 Napoli|
Phone: +39 081 - 675372
Fax: +39 081 - 675372
Web page: http://www.csef.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001.
"Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving,"
wp012, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1989.
"The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations,"
in: The Economics of Aging, pages 335-358
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "The Timing of Retirement: A Comparison of Expectations and Realizations," NBER Working Papers 2291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002.
"Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions,"
JCPR Working Papers
273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 8718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS," NBER Working Papers 4560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agar Brugiavini, 1997.
"Social Security and Retirement in Italy,"
NBER Working Papers
6155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Agar Brugiavini, 2003. "Social Security and Households' Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 1075-1119.
- Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-26, Sept./Oct.
- Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
- Richard Disney & Sarah Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lia Ambrosio)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.