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Citations of
James Hamilton

For current contact information and a more complete listing of works, please see here

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Working papers

  1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "Monetary policy response to oil price shocks," Working Paper Series 2009-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]

  2. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Daron Acemoglu & Amy Finkelstein & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2009. "Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," NBER Working Papers 14744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    2. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    3. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut – The “China Factor” and the OPEC Cartel," Ruhr Economic Papers 0128, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]

  3. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Martín Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," NBER Working Papers 14875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    2. Nunley, John & Zietz, Joachim, 2008. "The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants," MPRA Paper 16317, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008. [Downloadable!]

  4. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    2. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]

  5. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Coffinet, J., 2008. "La prévision des taux d’intérêt à partir de contrats futures : l’apport de variables économiques et financières," Documents de Travail 193, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    2. Ghent, Andra, 2007. "Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures," MPRA Paper 1708, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]

  6. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    2. Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Documents de Travail 239, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    4. Minakshy Iyer, 2006. "An Index of Uncertainty for Business Cycle Leading Indicators," Working Papers id:751, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
    5. Troy Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33. [Downloadable!]
    6. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
    7. Willem Boshoff, 2005. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle," Working Papers 02/2005, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    10. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    11. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Papers 367, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
    13. Munechika Katayama, . "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]

  7. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's Real About the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 11161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
    2. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    3. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on "what's real about the business cycle?"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 453-458. [Downloadable!]
    4. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    5. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]

  8. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-44, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Pablo A. Guerron, 2006. "Time-Dependent Portfolio Adjustment: Yet Another Look at the Dynamics," Working Paper Series 006, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
    5. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    6. Peter M. Summers & Penelope A. Smith, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2009-006, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
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    8. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models," CREATES Research Papers 2009-07, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity," Cahiers de recherche 0926, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
    11. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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    12. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/31, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
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    14. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    15. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Comparison of Alternative Asymptotic Frameworks to Analyze a Structural Change in a Linear Time Trend," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-030, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    16. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2004. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 391-396, March. [Downloadable!]
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    17. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of "business cycles"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
    18. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  9. Michael C. Davis & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," NBER Working Papers 9741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Douglas D. Davis & Oleg Korenok, 2005. "Posted - Offer Markets In Near Continuous Time: an Experimental Investigation," Working Papers 0504, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew, 2004. "The Real Thing: Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886–1959," MPRA Paper 1046, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2009. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 15255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Levy, Daniel & Lee, Dongwon & Chen, Allan (Haipeng) & Kauffman, Robert & Bergen, Mark, 2007. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," MPRA Paper 1472, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2009. "Factor intensity and price rigidity: evidence and theory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    6. Leon Bettendorf & Stephanie van der Geest & Gerard Kuper, 2005. "Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-040/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Muehlegger, Erich, 2006. "Gasoline Price Spikes and Regional Gasoline Content Regulation: A Structural Approach," Working Paper Series rwp06-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    8. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 11043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    9. Arto Kovanen, 2006. "Why Do Prices in Sierra Leone Change So Often? A Case Study Using Micro-level Price Data," IMF Working Papers 06/53, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    10. Bakytzhanova Zhuldyz, 2005. "Asymmetric fuel pricing in transition economies: The case of Moscow," EERC Working Paper Series 05-18e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
    11. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    13. Erich J. Muehlegger, 2004. "Gasoline Price Spikes and Regional Gasoline Content Regulations - A Structural Approach," Working Papers 0421, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    14. Shanjun Li & Roger von Haefen & Christopher Timmins, 2008. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," NBER Working Papers 14450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    15. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775. [Downloadable!]

  10. Ana Maria Herrera & James Hamilton, 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-10, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]

    Cited by:

    1. Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Jane Sneddon Little, 2000. "Recent developments in U.S. energy markets: a background note," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
    3. José De Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites The Dust? Oil Prices And Inflation," Working Papers wp238, University of Chile, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    4. Montoro Carlos, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2007-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
    5. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
    8. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    11. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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    12. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
    13. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2002. "Oil Price Shock: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-32, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    14. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3). [Downloadable!]
    15. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    16. Winkler, Roland & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006,19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    17. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    18. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    19. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 2/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
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    20. Al-Amin, Abul Quasem & Siwar, Chamhuri & Jaafar, Abdul hamid, 2008. "Impacts of External Price Shocks on Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 9308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    21. Jochen Moebert, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]

  11. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    2. M Sensier & M Artis & C R Birchenhall & D R Osborn, 2002. "Domestic and International Influences on Business Cycle Regimes in Europe," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 11, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2004. "The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, 1875-1997," Working Paper 0402, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    4. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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    5. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    6. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    7. Dong Heon Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 440, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    8. J.Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "An interpretation of an affine term structure model of Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 33(2 Year 20), pages 155-184, December. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Alessandro Calza & Joao Sousa & Marta Manrique Simon, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    10. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    11. D H Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0401, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    12. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    13. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps - evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 890, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    15. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    16. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    17. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    18. Abdullah Al-Hassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 09/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    19. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    20. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    21. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    22. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    23. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    24. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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    25. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Forecasting stock market volatility conditional on macroeconomic conditions," NCER Working Paper Series 18, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    26. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    27. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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    28. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    29. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    30. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    31. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
    32. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    33. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    34. Edward E. Leamer, 2001. "The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions," NBER Working Papers 8192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    35. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    36. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    37. J. Breitung & B. Candelon, . "Testing for short and long-run causality: The case of the yield spread and economic growth," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-96, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    38. Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2002. "Nonlinear Autoregresssive Leading Indicator Models of Output in G-7 Countries," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    39. Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Structural Break Threshold VARs for Predicting US Recessions using the Spread," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_37, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    41. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    42. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]

  12. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2007. "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07020, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Reconsidering the macroeconomics of the oil price in Germany: testing for causality in the frequency domain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 441-453, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Departmental Working Papers 200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Shalizi, Zmarak, 2007. "Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4209, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    5. Korhonen, Iikka & Ledyaeva, Svetlana, 2008. "Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    6. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    8. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    10. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Amstad, Marlene & Hildebrand, Philipp, 2005. "The oil price and monetary policy – a new paradigm," MPRA Paper 15562, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    12. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2004. "Structural Change and Forecasting Long-Run Energy Prices," Working Papers 04-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    13. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    14. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    15. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    16. G. Peersman & I. Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro Area Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/582, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    20. Edith Skriner, . "Forecasting Global Flows," FIW Working Paper series 009, FIW. [Downloadable!]
    21. Dong Heon Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 440, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. John Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2005. "Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov 18. [Downloadable!]
    23. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    24. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    26. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    27. Montoro Carlos, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2007-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
    28. Chen, Natalie & Graham, Liam & Oswald, Andrew, 2008. "Oil Prices, Profits, and Recessions: An Inquiry Using Terrorism as an Instrumental Variable," CEPR Discussion Papers 6937, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    29. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    31. Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(2), pages 21-27, 07. [Downloadable!]
    32. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    33. D H Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0401, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    34. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    35. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    36. Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2008. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Working Papers 2008-044, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    37. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, . "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    38. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK. [Downloadable!]
    39. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "A flexible nonlinear inference to Okun's relationship," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 325-331, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    40. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    41. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Macroeconomics 0512004, EconWPA, revised 31 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    42. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    43. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    44. Ashima Goyal & Arjun Singh, 2006. "Through a glass darkly: Deciphering the impact of oil price shocks," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-012, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India. [Downloadable!]
    45. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 505-516. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    46. Michele Cavallo & Tao Wu, 2006. "Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information," Working Paper Series 2006-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    47. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2007. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models," Staff Reports 285, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    48. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    49. Patrick Kline, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1645, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    50. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    51. Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue & Olivier Bonroy, 2004. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Trade," International Trade 0407004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    52. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Anticipated and unanticipated effects of crude oil prices and oil inventory changes on gasoline prices," Microeconomics 0406001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    53. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    54. Martin Schneider, 2004. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes on Growth and Inflation," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 27-36, July. [Downloadable!]
    55. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Julien Fouquau, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Working Papers hal-00387103_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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    56. Cheng, Ai-ru & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Rothman, Philip, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of Stock Market Behavior in the Middle East and North Africa," MPRA Paper 13437, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    57. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    58. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
    59. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32. [Downloadable!]
    60. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2009. "US Industry-Level Returns and Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 15670, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    61. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    62. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    63. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Non-Linear Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Production," Monash Economics Working Papers 39/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    64. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen & Chih-Chiang Hsu, 2004. "Structural Break or Asymmetry? An Empirical Study of the Stock Wealth Effect on Consumption," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 690, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    65. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    66. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2009. "Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    67. Ashima Goyal, 2009. "Through a Glass Darkly: Deciphering the Impact of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers id:1826, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
    68. Olivier Bonroy & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue, 2005. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Finance 0501003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    69. David A. Penn, 2006. "What do we know about oil prices and state economic performance?," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Oct, pages 131-139. [Downloadable!]
    70. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
    71. Stan Radchenko & Oleg Korenok, 2004. "The role of permanent and transitory components in business cycle volatility moderation," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 149, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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    72. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    73. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    74. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    75. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "A note on oil dependence and economic instability," Working Papers 2006-060, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    76. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    77. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Limited Information Bayesian Analysis of a Simultaneous Equation with an Autocorrelated Error Term and its Application to the U.S. Gasoline Market," Econometrics 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    78. Owen Humpage & Eduard Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    79. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    80. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," International Finance Discussion Papers 897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    81. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
    82. Elif C. Arbatli, 2008. "Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Working Papers 08-48, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    83. Robalo, Pedro Brito & Salvado, João Cotter, 2008. "Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp529, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
    84. David R. Stockman, 2006. "Oil Shocks and Macroeconomic Activity: A Putty-Clay Perspective," Working Papers 06-15, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    85. Andrea Nobili & Stefano Neri, 2006. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    86. David I. Stern & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2004. "Energy and Economic Growth," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0410, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    87. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    88. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2009. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 09-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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    89. Yash P. Mehra & Christopher Herrington, 2008. "On the sources of movements in inflation expectations : a few insights from a VAR model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 121-146. [Downloadable!]
    90. Marc D. Weidenmier & Joseph H. Davis & Roger Aliaga-Diaz, 2008. "Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program," NBER Working Papers 14362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    91. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    92. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    93. Kline, Patrick, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Working Papers 43, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    94. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    95. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher & Samuel B. Thompson, 2004. "Volatility Comovement: A Multifrequency Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    96. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    97. Frode Brevik & Axel Kind, 2004. "What is going on in the oil market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 442-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    98. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    99. Douglas A. Irwin & Joseph H. Davis, 2003. "Trade Disruptions and America's Early Industrialization," NBER Working Papers 9944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    100. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]

  13. James D. Hamilton, 1999. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Yoon-Jin Lee & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Specification Testing for Multivariate Time Series Volatility Models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 696, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    3. D. Bond & M.J. Harrision & E.J. O, Brien, 2005. "Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Estimation of Hamilton’s Random Field Regression Model," Trinity Economics Papers tep4, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring Long Memory and Nonlinearity in Irish Real Exchange Rates using Tests based on Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 200901, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
    5. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2007. "Demand for Money: A Study in Testing Time Series for Long Memory and Nonlinearity," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
    6. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    7. C. L. Chua & G. C. Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "A Latent Variable Approach to Forecasting the Unemployment Rate," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    8. Dong Heon Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 440, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2007. "Testing the Opportunistic Approach to Monetary Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2007/02, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Jie He & Patrick Richard, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 09-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
    11. D H Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0401, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    12. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J & Hession, Niall & O’Brien, Edward J., 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/06, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2007. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models," Staff Reports 285, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    14. Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue & Olivier Bonroy, 2004. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Trade," International Trade 0407004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    15. D. Bond & M. Harrison & E.J. O'Brien, 2003. "Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Implementation of Hamilton's Methodology," Trinity Economics Papers 200312, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    16. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
    17. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    18. Benjamin N. Dennis & Talan Iscan, 2007. "Agricultural Distortions, Structural Change, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive distort35, Dalhousie, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    19. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    20. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen & Chih-Chiang Hsu, 2004. "Structural Break or Asymmetry? An Empirical Study of the Stock Wealth Effect on Consumption," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 690, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    21. Douglas James Hodgson, 2009. "A Test for the Presence of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market With an Application to the Bank of Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-14, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    22. Olivier Bonroy & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue, 2005. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Finance 0501003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    23. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    24. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2009. "The Dependence Structure of Macroeconomic Variables in the US," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/31, University of Stavanger. [Downloadable!]
    25. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
    26. Jorda, Oscar, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 03-8, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Özlem Önder, 2006. "The Stability Of The Turkish Phillips Curve And Alternative Regime Shifting Models," Working Papers 0602, Ege University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Derek Bond & Niall Hession & Michael J Harrison & Edward J O’Brien, 2007. "Nonlinearity as an Explanation of the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Working Papers 200801, School Of Economics, University College Dublin. [Downloadable!]
    29. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    30. Bond, Derek & Dyson, Kenneth, 2006. "Long memory and non-linearity in Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 252, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    31. Costas Milas & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2009. "Financial Market Conditions, Real Time, Nonlinearity and European Central Bank Monetary Policy: In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Assessment," Working Papers 200923, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    32. René Lalonde & Nicolas Parent, 2006. "The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States," Working Papers 06-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    33. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity: The Irish Experience Re-visited," Trinity Economics Papers tep200615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    34. Chihwa Kao & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Detecting Neglected Nonlinearity in Dynamic Panel Data with Time-Varying Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 753, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  14. James D. Hamilton, 1997. "The Supply and Demand for Federal Reserve Deposits," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-27, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Bindseil & Franz Seitz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - the first 18 months," Working Paper Series 44, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    2. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "Whither the liquidity effect: the impact of Federal Reserve Open Market Operations in recent years," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    3. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    4. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Yi Wen, 2002. "What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective," Working Papers 2002-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Claudio Morana & Nuno Cassola, 2003. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data," Working Paper Series 235, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    7. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "A study of U.S. monetary policy implementation: demand for reserves on a period average basis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]

  15. James D. Hamilton & Josefina Monteagudo, 1997. "The Augmented Solow Model and the Productivity Slowdown," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-28, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Neri, F., 2001. "Schooling Quality and Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers wp01-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    2. de la Fuente, Angel & Doménech, Rafael, 2002. "Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make? An Update and Further Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 3587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Davide Fiaschi, 2004. "Nonlinear Growth and the Productivity Slowdown," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 162, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Adele Bergin & Ide Kearney, 2004. "Human Capital, The Labour Market and Productivity Growth in Ireland," Papers WP158, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
    5. Noh-Sun Kwark & Yong-Sang Shyn, 2006. "International R&D spillovers revisited: Human capital as an absorptive capacity for foreign technology," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 179-196, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    6. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    7. Rosa Capolupo, . "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    8. Luc Everaert & Francisco Nadal-De Simone, 2003. "Capital Operating Time and Total Factor Productivity Growth in France," IMF Working Papers 03/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    9. Angel de la Fuente, 2002. "Convergence across countries and regions: theory and empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 555.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. ?gel de la Fuente & Rafael Dom?ech, . "Human Capital In Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 446.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Dr. (elect.) Julia Korosteleva & Dr. Colin Lawson, . "The Belarusian Case of Transition: Whither Financial Repression?," Working Papers 2006_4, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Arcand Jean-Louis & Béatrice d'Hombres, 2005. "Explaining the Negative Coefficient Associated with Human Capital in Augmented Solow Growth Regressions," Macroeconomics 0510010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Javier Alonso Meseguer, . "Estimación de una función de producción MRW para la Economía Española, 1910-1995," Studies on the Spanish Economy 197, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Ville Kaitila, 2005. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Economics Working Papers 031, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. K. Renuka Ganegodage & Kiyoshi Taniguchi & Xiaojun Wang, 2003. "Learning by Eating: A case study on the cost of hunger in Sri Lanka," Working Papers 03-05, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA). [Downloadable!]

  16. James D. Hamilton, 1996. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, . "Assessing Money Supply Rules," Working Papers 2003_9, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, . "Optimal Allotment Policy in Central Bank Open Market Operations," IEW - Working Papers iewwp201, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Seth B. Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates' volatility," Staff Reports 175, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Working Papers 1998-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Working Papers 1999-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004. "The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Marco Lippi & Daniel L. Thornton, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Response of U.S. Interest Rates to News," LEM Papers Series 2004/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, . "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Department of Economics 99-06, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Craig Furfine, 1998. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    11. Livio Stracca & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2004. "Demand and supply in the ECB's main refinancing operations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 94, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    12. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2004. "Liquidity, information, and the overnight rate," Working Paper Series 378, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility in the Euro Area Money Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    14. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Manipulation in Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 113-148, March. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Daniel L. Thornton, 2006. "The daily liquidity effect," Working Papers 2006-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    16. Marius Jurgilas, 2005. "Interbank market under the currency board: Case of Lithuania," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 448, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    17. W. Douglas McMillin & William D. Lastrapes, . "Cross-Country Variation in the Liquidity Effect," Departmental Working Papers 2001-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
    18. Marius Jurgilas, 2006. "Interbank Markets under Currency Boards," Working papers 2006-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    19. Ulrich Bindseil & Franz Seitz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - the first 18 months," Working Paper Series 44, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    20. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "Whither the liquidity effect: the impact of Federal Reserve Open Market Operations in recent years," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    21. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 29-48. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Alessandro Prati & Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola, 2001. "The overnight interbank market: evidence from the G-7 and the Euro zone," Staff Reports 135, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Yi Wen, 2002. "What's unique about the federal funds rate? evidence from a spectral perspective," Working Papers 2002-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Andreas Schabert, . "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks with Changes in Open Market Operations," Working Papers 2003_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Andreas Schabert, 2003. "On the Relevance of Open Market Operations," Working Paper Series in Economics 4, University of Cologne, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    26. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed," Working Papers 2001-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Open market operations and the federal funds rate," Working Papers 2005-063, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Christian Ewerhart, 2002. "A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary poicy implementation," Working Paper Series 197, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    29. Steen Ejerskov & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2003. "How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look at the empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 244, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    30. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    31. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Johann Scharler, 2007. "The Liquidity Effect in Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems," Economics working papers 2007-18, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    33. Vladimir Kotomin & Drew Winters, 2006. "Quarter-End Effects in Banks: Preferred Habitat or Window Dressing?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 61-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2009. "Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," TÜSİAD-Koç University Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0906, TUSIAD-Koc University Economic Research Forum. [Downloadable!]
    35. Fumio Hayashi, 2000. "Is There a Liquidity Effect in the Japanese Market?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1898, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    36. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 393, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    37. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "A study of U.S. monetary policy implementation: demand for reserves on a period average basis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    38. Todd Keister & Antoine Martin & James McAndrews, 2008. "Divorcing money from monetary policy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 41-56. [Downloadable!]
    39. William Whitesell, 2006. "Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    40. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Optimal Time-Consistent Monetary Policy in a Phillips Curve World," Working Papers 99-15, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    41. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2003. "Optimal allotment policy in the eurosystem’s main refinancing operations?," Working Paper Series 295, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

  17. James D. Hamilton & Gang Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and The Business Cycle," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-18, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    2. Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Adnan Kasman, 2003. "Volatility of ISE and Business Cycle," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 67-84. [Downloadable!]
    3. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," NBER Working Papers 11736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Georgios Kouretas & Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange Daily Returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "The Contagion Effect Between the Volatilities of the NASDAQ-100 and the IT.CA :A Univariate and A Bivariate Switching Approach," Econometrics 0307002, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    6. Acuña, Andrés & Pinto, Cristián, 2007. "Eficiencia del Mercado Accionario Chileno: Un Enfoque Dinámico usando Tests de Volatilidad
      [Chilean Stock Market Efficiency: A Dynamic Approach using Volatility Tests]      ," MPRA Paper 7387, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    7. Monica Billio & Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Granger-causality in Markov Switching Models," Working Papers 2006_20, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Spillovers across High Yield Markets," Finance 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    9. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    10. Dima Bogda & Pirtea Marilen & Murgea Aurora & Mura Petru Ovidiu, 2008. "Recent Changes On Romanian Capital Market’S Volatility In The Framework Of A Component Garch Model," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 25. [Downloadable!]
    11. Rita De Siano, 2000. "Financial Variables As Leading Indicators: An Application To The G7 Countries," Working Papers 6_2000, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy. [Downloadable!]
    12. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Documents de Travail 73, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    13. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    14. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 9817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    15. Baele, Lieven, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets: Evidence from a Regime Switching Model," EIFC - Technology and Finance Working Papers 33, United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies. [Downloadable!]
    16. L. Baele, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 03/189, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2005. "Structural Breaks and Common Factors in the Volatility of the Fama-French Factor Portfolios," ICER Working Papers 23-2005, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    18. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Anne Peguin-Feissolle & Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Working Papers halshs-00410540_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Olivier, Jacques & Tay, Anthony, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 6893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    21. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
    22. Roland G. Shami & Catherine S. Forbes, 2002. "Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    23. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    24. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    25. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2007. "A Metropolis-in-Gibbs Sampler for Estimating Equity Market Factors," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    26. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach," Econometrics 0307003, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    27. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    28. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 15260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    29. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Forecasting stock market volatility conditional on macroeconomic conditions," NCER Working Paper Series 18, National Centre for Econometric Research. [Downloadable!]
    30. L. Vanessa Smith & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "Firm Level Volatility-Return Analysis using Dynamic Panels," Discussion Papers 08/09, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    31. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Peel, David, 2006. "Simulating Stock Returns Under Switching Regimes - A New Test of Market Efficiency," CEPR Discussion Papers 5614, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    33. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont. [Downloadable!]
    34. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    35. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    36. Shami, R.G. & Forbes, C.S., 2000. "A structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/2000, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
    37. Alessandro Palandri, 2009. "The Effects of Interest Rate Movements on Assets’ Conditional Second Moments," CREATES Research Papers 2009-32, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    38. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    39. Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2002. "Stock Market Cycles and Stock Market Development in Spain," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    40. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    41. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    42. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    43. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "The Bad Government: A Source of Uncertainty and Business Fluctuations," Microeconomics 0407010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    44. Renatas Kizys & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and International Financial Integration," Kiel Working Papers 1197, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    45. Nicole Davis & Ali M. Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    46. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]

  18. James D. Hamilton, 1995. "This is what happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-36, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0731, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    2. RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2002. "Does the Barro-Gordon Model Explain the Behavior of US Inflation? a Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence," Cahiers de recherche 2002-07, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Guidi, Francesco, 2009. "The economic effects of oil prices shocks on the UK manufacturing and services sector," MPRA Paper 16171, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    4. Pablo Pincheira & Álvaro García, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 413, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    8. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    10. Hilde C. Bjørnland and Håvard Hungnes, 2005. "The commodity currency puzzle," Discussion Papers 423, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Parry, Ian & Portney, Paul & Harrington, Winston & Gruenspecht, Howard, 2003. "The Economics of Fuel Economy Standards," Discussion Papers dp-03-44, Resources For the Future. [Downloadable!]
    12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    13. John Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2005. "Why hasn't the jump in oil prices led to a recession?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov 18. [Downloadable!]
    14. Paul Edelstein & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. A. Arize, 2000. "U.S. petroleum consumption behavior and oil price uncertainty: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 463-477, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    16. Melolinna, Marko, 2008. "Using financial markets information to identify oil supply shocks in a restricted VAR," Research Discussion Papers 9/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    17. Chen, Natalie & Graham, Liam & Oswald, Andrew, 2008. "Oil Prices, Profits, and Recessions: An Inquiry Using Terrorism as an Instrumental Variable," CEPR Discussion Papers 6937, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. Lippi, Francesco & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Clements, Michael P & Harvey, David I, 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 774, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    22. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "The relative price effects of monetary shocks," Working Papers 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    25. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2008. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Working Papers 14563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    26. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    27. J. Isaac Miller & Ronald Ratti, 2008. "Crude Oil and Stock Markets: Stability, Instability, and Bubbles," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 20 Jan 2009. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Michele Cavallo & Tao Wu, 2006. "Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information," Working Paper Series 2006-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    29. Stephen P.A. Brown & David B. Oppedahl & Mine K. Yücel, 1996. "Oil prices and aggregate economic activity: a study of eight OECD countries," Working Papers 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    30. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, 2009. "Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 02/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    31. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    32. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    33. Williams Olatubi & Sung No, 2003. "On the vulnerability of the oil and gas industry to oil price changes," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 31(4), pages 363-375, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. Jean-Philippe Stijns, 2003. "An Empirical Test of the Dutch Disease Hypothesis using a Gravity Model of Trade," International Trade 0305001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    35. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    36. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2009. "US Industry-Level Returns and Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 15670, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    37. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    38. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2005. "On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states," Working Papers 04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    39. Francisco Peñaranda & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2009. "The emergence of biofuels and the co-movement between crude oil and agricultural prices," Economics Working Papers 1174, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
    40. Junhee Lee & Joonhyuk Song, 2009. "Nature of Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    41. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56. [Downloadable!]
    42. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
    43. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Hungnes, Håvard, 2003. "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway," Memorandum 23/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    44. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    45. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]
    46. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    47. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2002. "The cyclical behavior of state employment during the postwar period," Working Papers 02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    48. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    49. Tweneboah , George & Adam, Anokye M., 2008. "Implications of Oil Price Shocks for Monetary Policy in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model," MPRA Paper 11968, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    50. Owen Humpage & Eduard Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    51. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Working Papers 2008-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    52. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009. [Downloadable!]
    53. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    54. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "On the Driving Forces Behind Cyclical Movement, in Employment and Job Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 5775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    55. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments," Working Paper 0510, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    56. Robalo, Pedro Brito & Salvado, João Cotter, 2008. "Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp529, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia. [Downloadable!]
    57. Cara S. Lown & Robert W. Rich, 1997. "Is there an inflation puzzle?," Research Paper 9723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    58. Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2001. "Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 2906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    59. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2001. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey," Working Papers 0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    60. Carruth, A.A. & Hooker, M.A. & Oswald, A.J., 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 496, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    61. Bhattacharya, Jyotirmoy, 2008. "Oil Shocks: How Destabilizing are they?," MPRA Paper 12116, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    62. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2002. "Is the Technology-Driven Real Business Cycle Hypothesis Dead?," NBER Working Papers 8726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    63. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2009. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 09-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    64. P. Rothman & D.J.C. van Dijk & P.H.B.F. Franses, 1999. "A multivariate STAR analysis of the relationship between money and output," Econometric Institute Report 170, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    65. Marc D. Weidenmier & Joseph H. Davis & Roger Aliaga-Diaz, 2008. "Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program," NBER Working Papers 14362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    66. Alessia Campolmi, 2008. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country model," MNB Working Papers 2008/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
    67. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    68. Frode Brevik & Axel Kind, 2004. "What is going on in the oil market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 442-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    69. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    70. Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, . "Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence For Some Europesan Countries," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    71. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    72. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2009. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," MPRA Paper 14703, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    73. Al-Amin, Abul Quasem & Siwar, Chamhuri & Jaafar, Abdul hamid, 2008. "Impacts of External Price Shocks on Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 9308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    74. Munechika Katayama, . "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
    75. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    76. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]

  19. James D. Hamilton & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 1995. "What do the Leading Indicators Lead?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-22, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
    2. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    4. Gert Peersam & Frank Smets, 2002. "The industry effects of monetary policy in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 165, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
    6. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Dept. SEGeS. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20. [Downloadable!]
    8. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
    9. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 27, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    10. Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    11. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 125-145, January-J. [Downloadable!]
    12. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17. [Downloadable!]
    13. R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk, 2002. "Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series," Econometric Institute Report 295, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    14. Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2002. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Working Paper Series 133, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Denise R. Osborn & Paul W. Simpson, 2000. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production Over the Business Cycle," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1059, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
    17. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2001. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 1997. "Measuring Lag Structure in Forecasting Models - the Introduction of Time Distance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 97-24, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    20. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisén, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    21. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    23. Frank Smets & Gert Peersman, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 052, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

  20. James D. Hamilton, 1995. "Specification Testing in Markov-Switching Time Series Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-34, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Robert Gagné & Simon van Norden & Bruno Versaevel, 2003. "Testing Optimal Punishment Mechanisms Under Price Regulation: the Case of the Retail Market for Gasoline," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-57, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Hassler., John, 1997. "Regime Shifts and Volatility Spillovers on International Stock Markets," Seminar Papers 603, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Documents de Travail 239, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Nilsson, Birger, 2002. "Financial Liberalization and the Changing Characteristics of Nordic Stock Returns," Working Papers 2002:4, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    5. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
    6. Fernando Alexandre & Vasco J. Gabriel & Pedro Bação, 2007. "The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment," NIPE Working Papers 15/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 598, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 29 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Ken Nyholm, 2003. "Inferring the private information content of trades: a regime-switching approach

      The views presented in the paper are not necessarily shared by," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 457-470. [Downloadable!]

    9. Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    10. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Arielle Beyaert, Juan J. P rez-Castej, 2000. "Switching regime models in the Spanish inter-bank market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 93-112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    13. Spencer Thompson & Nathan Lead, 1999. "Modelling Share Price Behaviour Across Time," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 071, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    14. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 2001. "Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit: Households' Choice of Electricity Supplier," Econometrics 0012001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew & Makarov, Igor, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity In Hedge Fund Returns," Working papers 4288-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Patrick K. Asea & S. Brock Blomberg, 1997. "Lending Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    17. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael Clements, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 058, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Robert Breunig & Alison Stegman, 2003. "Testing for Regime Switching in Singaporean Business Cycles," Departmental Working Papers 2003-20, Australian National University, Economics RSPAS. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    19. A. Warne, . "Causality in Nonlinear Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-26, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    20. Nielsen, Steen & Olesen, Jan Overgaard, 2001. "Regime-Switching Stock Returns And Mean Reversion," Working Papers 11-2000, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    21. Masahito Kobayashi, 2005. "Testing for Volatility Jumps in the Stochastic Volatility Process," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 143-157, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    22. Patricia Alvarez-Plata & Mechthild Schrooten, 2003. "The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov-Switching Model Estimation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 348, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "Global Yield Curves and Sovereign Bond Market Integration," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0902, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
    24. Kólver Hernández & Asli Leblebicioglu, 2008. "A Regime Switching Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Working Papers 08-17, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]

  21. James D. Hamilton, 1995. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-09, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Andreas M, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    2. S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 187-216, November. [Downloadable!]
    3. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, . "Optimal Allotment Policy in Central Bank Open Market Operations," IEW - Working Papers iewwp201, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Michele Manna & Philipp Hartmann & Andres Manzanares, 2001. "The microstructure of the Euro money market," Working Paper Series 080, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Falko Fecht & Kjell G. Nyborg & Jörg Rocholl, 2009. "The Price of Liquidity: Bank Characteristics and Market Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. Michele Manna, 2002. "Using money market rates to assess the alternatives of fixed vs. variable rate tenders: the lesson from 1989-1998 data for Germany," Working Paper Series 186, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    7. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004. "The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    8. Bergin, Paul & Jorda, Oscar, 2000. "Monetary Policy Coordination: A New Empirical Approach," Working Papers 01-2, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, . "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Department of Economics 99-06, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Juan Ayuso & Rafael Repullo, 2000. "A Model of the Open Market Operations of the European Central Bank," Banco de España Working Papers 0016, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    12. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2007. "Monetary policy implementation: A European Perspective," Discussion Papers 2007/10, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    13. Anne Vila Wetherilt, . "Money market operations and volatility of UK money market rates," Bank of England working papers 174, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    14. Craig Furfine, 1998. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    15. Livio Stracca & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2004. "Demand and supply in the ECB's main refinancing operations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 94, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    16. Morten L. Bech & Enghin Atalay, 2008. "The topology of the federal funds market," Staff Reports 354, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "The execution of monetary policy: a tale of two central banks," Staff Reports 165, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Offermanns, Christian J. & Nautz, Dieter, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between the Euro overnight rate, the ECB´s policy rate and the term spread," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    19. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Monetary policy in the information economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 297-370. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Elizabeth Klee, 2007. "Operational problems and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    21. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Banks' reserve management, transaction costs, and the timing of the Federal Reserve intervention," Staff Reports 109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    22. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    24. Kempa, Michal, 2007. "What determines commercial banks’ demand for reserves in the interbank market," Research Discussion Papers 30/2007, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    25. Anne Vila Wetherilt, 2003. "Money market operations and short-term interest rate volatility in the United Kingdom," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 701-719, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    26. Välimäki, Tuomas, 2001. "Fixed rate tenders and the overnight money market equilibrium," Research Discussion Papers 8/2001, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    27. Ulrich Bindseil & Franz Seitz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - the first 18 months," Working Paper Series 44, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    28. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2008. "Monetary Policy Implementation and the Federal Funds Rate," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-025, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    29. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "Whither the liquidity effect: the impact of Federal Reserve Open Market Operations in recent years," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    30. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    31. Aleksander Berentsen & Cyril Monet, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Channel System," IEW - Working Papers iewwp295, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    32. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2005. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," Discussion Papers 2005/13, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bertola, Giuseppe & Prati, Alessandro, 2002. "The Overnight Interbank Market: Evidence from the G7 and the Euro Zone," CEPR Discussion Papers 3090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    34. Nadja Kamhi, 2006. "LVTS, the Overnight Market, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 06-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    35. Emilio Barucci & Claudio Impenna & Roberto Reno, 2003. "The Italian Overnight Market: Microstructure Effects, the Martingale Hypothesis and the Payment System," CEIS Research Paper 24, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
    36. Thomas B. King, 2003. "Discipline and liquidity in the market for federal funds," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2003-02, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    37. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez, 2000. "The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed with the EMU?," Economics Working Papers 474, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    38. Ulrike Neyer & Jürgen Wiemers, 2004. "The Influence of a Heterogeneous Banking Sector on the Interbank Market Rate in the Euro Area," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(III), pages 395-428, September. [Downloadable!]
    39. Flemming Reinhardt Würtz, 2003. "A comprehensive model on the Euro overnight rate," Working Paper Series 207, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    40. Philip N. Jefferson, 1997. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    41. Joe Ganley, 2004. "Surplus Liquidity: Implications for Central Banks," Lectures, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 3. [Downloadable!]
    42. Antoine Martin & Cyril Monnet, 2008. "Monetary policy implementation frameworks: a comparative analysis," Staff Reports 313, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    43. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    44. Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    45. Christian Ewerhart, 2002. "A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary poicy implementation," Working Paper Series 197, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    46. Jardet, C. & Le Fol, G., 2007. "Euro money market interest rates dynamics and volatility: How they respond to recent changes in the operational framework," Documents de Travail 167, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
    47. Steen Ejerskov & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2003. "How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look at the empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 244, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    48. Kempa , Michal, 2006. "Money market volatility, A simulation study," Research Discussion Papers 13/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    49. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2003. "The daily market for funds in Europe: what has changed with the EMU," Banco de España Working Papers 0313, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    50. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    51. Paolo Angelini, 2002. "Liquidity and Announcement Effects in the Euro Area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 451, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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    52. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2007. "Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions," Working Paper 0706, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    53. George Monokroussos, 2006. "A Dynamic Tobit Model for the Open Market Desk's Daily Reaction Function," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 390, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    54. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    55. Ken B. Cyree & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2003. "On the pervasive effects of Federal Reserve settlement regulations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 27-46. [Downloadable!]
    56. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertoli & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Banks' Reserve Management, Transaction Costs, and the Timing of Federal Reserve Intervention," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0123, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    57. Ulrich Bindseil, 2001. "Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors: Quality, publication and the control of the overnight rate," Working Paper Series 070, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    58. Juan Ayuso & Rafael Repullo, 2001. "Why Did the Banks Overbid? An Empirical Model of the Fixed Rate Tenders of the European Central Bank," Banco de España Working Papers 0105, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    59. Vladimir Kotomin & Drew Winters, 2006. "Quarter-End Effects in Banks: Preferred Habitat or Window Dressing?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 61-82, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    60. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & James Proudman & John Spicer, . "Persistence and volatility in short-term interest rates," Bank of England working papers 116, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    61. Vitor Gaspar & Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2001. "The ECB monetary policy strategy and the money market," Working Paper Series 069, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    62. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2007. "Forecasts of U.S. short-term interest rates: a flexible forecast combination approach," Working Papers 2005-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    63. Claudio Morana & Nuno Cassola, 2003. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: evidence from high frequency data," Working Paper Series 235, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    64. R. Spence Hilton & Alessandro Prati & Leonardo Bartolini, 2006. "Money Market Integration," IMF Working Papers 06/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    65. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "The determinants of the overnight interest rate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 393, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    66. Doug Rolph, 1999. "Federal Funds Futures, Spot Rates, and Expected Changes in Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 853, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    67. William Whitesell, 2003. "Tunnels and reserves in monetary policy implementation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    68. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Crashes and Recoveries in Illiquid Markets," NBER Working Papers 14119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    69. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
    70. Emilio Barucci & Claudio Impenna & Roberto Reno, 2003. "The Italian overnight market: microstructure effects, the martingale hypothesis and the payment system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 475, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    71. J. Benson Durham, 2005. "Jump-diffusion processes and affine term structure models: additional closed-form approximate solutions, distributional assumptions for jumps, and parameter estimates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    72. Nathaniel John Porter & TengTeng Xu, 2009. "What Drives China's Interbank Market?," IMF Working Papers 09/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    73. William Whitesell, 2006. "Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    74. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Predicting monetary policy using federal funds future prices," Working Paper Series 85, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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    75. Leonardo Bartolini & Svenja Gudell & Spence Hilton & Krista Schwarz, 2005. "Intraday trading in the overnight federal funds market," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
    76. Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    77. Giuseppe Bruno & Ernesto Maurizio Ordine & Antonio Scalia, 2005. "BanksÂ’ participation in the Eurosystem auctions and money market integration," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 562, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    78. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2003. "Optimal allotment policy in the eurosystem’s main refinancing operations?," Working Paper Series 295, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    79. Bergin, Paul & Jorda, Oscar, 2002. "Measuring Monetary Policy Interdependence," Working Papers 06-9, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    80. Frédérique BEC, Charbel BASSIL, 2008. "Federal Funds Rate Stationarity: New Evidence," THEMA Working Papers 2008-35, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]

  22. James D. Hamilton & Raul Susmel, 1993. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Changes in Regime," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-28, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    2. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2000. "Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 7813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2005. "Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching: Bivariate Modeling of US and European Short Rates," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_59, Finance Lab, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Markus Haas, 2007. "Volatility Components and Long Memory-Effects Revisited," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(2). [Downloadable!]
    6. Andrew Ang & Li Gu & Yael V. Hochberg, 2006. "Is IPO Underperformance a Peso Problem?," NBER Working Papers 12203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    7. Giovanni Gallipoli & Gianluigi Pelloni, 2008. "Aggregate Shocks vs Reallocation Shocks: an Appraisal of the Applied Literature," Working Paper Series 27-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    8. Ernst Konrad, 2009. "The impact of monetary policy surprises on asset return volatility: the case of Germany," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 111-135, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    9. Georgios Kouretas & Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange Daily Returns," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2007. "Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007033, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
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    12. Michael Dueker, 1995. "Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility," Working Papers 1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    13. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working papers 2008-24, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "The Contagion Effect Between the Volatilities of the NASDAQ-100 and the IT.CA :A Univariate and A Bivariate Switching Approach," Econometrics 0307002, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    16. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    17. John Simon, 1996. "A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9611, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    18. Khurshid Kiani, 2009. "Inflation in Transition Economies: An Empirical Analysis," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 34-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    20. Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional root model," Economics Papers 2002-W7, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 01 Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
    21. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2001. "Long Maturity Forward Rates," Finance Working Papers 01-12, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    22. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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    23. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    24. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Determination Of Volatility And Mean Returns: An Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 103-118. [Downloadable!]
    25. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Spillovers across High Yield Markets," Finance 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    26. J L Ford & Bagus Santoso & N J Horsewood, 2007. "Asian Currency Crises: Do Fundamentals still Matter? A Markov-Switching Approach to Causes and Timing," Discussion Papers 07-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham. [Downloadable!]
    27. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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    28. Klaassen, F., 1999. "Long swings in exchange rates : are they really in the data," Discussion Paper 8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    29. Sebastian Edwards & Raúl Susmel, 1999. "Contagion and Volatility in the 1990s," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 153, Universidad del CEMA. [Downloadable!]
    30. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech & Helmut Stix, 2001. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the EMS. The Post 1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 168, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
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    31. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1996. "The Distribution of Exchange Rates in the EMS," NBER Working Papers 4834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    32. Don U.A. Galagedera & Roland Shami, 2003. "Association between Markov regime-switching market volatility and beta risk: Evidence from Dow Jones industrial serurities," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 20/03, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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    33. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-45, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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    34. Menelaos Karanasos & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, . "Cross-Sectional Aggregation and Persistence in Conditional Variance," Discussion Papers 00/09, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    35. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Pollard, 2007. "A switching ARCH (SWARCH) model of stock market volatility: some evidence from Latin America," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 445-462, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    36. Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Regime switching: Italian financial markets over a century," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 67-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    37. Wai Mun Fong & Kim Hock See, 2003. "Basis variations and regime shifts in the oil futures market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 499-513, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    38. H. Herwartz & H. Reimers, . "Empirical modeling of the DEM/USD and DEM/JPY foreign exchange rate: Structural shifts in GARCH-models and their implications," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-83, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    39. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2001. "Volatility Dependence and Contagion in Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    40. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    41. Luc Bauwens & Arie Preminger & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Cahiers de recherche 06-08, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée. [Downloadable!]
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    42. Andrew Patton, 2006. "Volatility Forecast Comparison using Imperfect Volatility Proxies," Research Paper Series 175, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    43. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2005. "Structural Breaks and Common Factors in the Volatility of the Fama-French Factor Portfolios," ICER Working Papers 23-2005, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    44. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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    45. Klaassen, F., 1998. "Improving garch volatility forecasts," Discussion Paper 52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    46. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2007. "Realized Correlation Tick-by-Tick," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-02, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    47. Anne Peguin-Feissolle & Gilles Dufrénot & Dominique Guegan, 2006. "Changing-regime volatility : A fractionally integrated SETAR model," Working Papers halshs-00410540_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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    48. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H.H. Tan, 2007. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in southeast Asia," International Finance Discussion Papers 889, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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    49. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    50. Ramón Cobo-Reyes & Gabriel Pérez Quirós, 2005. "The effect of oil price on industrial production and on stock returns," ThE Papers 05/18, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
    51. Kian-Ping Lim & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Tsen Wong, 2003. "Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis, Behavioural Finance and Episodic Transient Dependencies: The Case of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Finance 0312012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    52. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    53. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Volatility Transmission in Financial Markets: A New Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_10, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    54. Heiko Hesse & Nathaniel Frank, 2009. "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Interventions During the First Phase of the Subprime Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/206, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    55. Spencer Thompson & Nathan Lead, 1999. "Modelling Share Price Behaviour Across Time," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 071, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    56. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    57. David Revelt & Kenneth Train, 2001. "Customer-Specific Taste Parameters and Mixed Logit: Households' Choice of Electricity Supplier," Econometrics 0012001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    58. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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    59. Issler, João Victor, 1999. "Estimating and Forecasting the Volatility of Brazilian Finance Series Using Arch Models (Preliminary Version)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 347, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    60. C. Stéphan & S. Skander, 2003. "Statistical analysis of financial time series under the assuption of local stationarity," THEMA Working Papers 2003-23, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
    61. Giampiero M. Gallo, Barbara Pacini, 2000. "The effects of trading activity on market volatility," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 163-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    62. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    63. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    64. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach," Econometrics 0307003, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
    65. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    66. Christian Jochum, 2001. "Is the covariance of international stock market returns regime dependent?," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 247-268, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    67. Michel Beine & Sebastien Laurent, 2000. "Structural Change and Long Memory in Volatility: New Evidence from Daily Exchange Rates," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0312, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    68. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2002. "Credibility of EMS Interest Rate Policies: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 361, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
    69. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility Spillovers, Interdependence and Comovements: A Markov Switching Approach," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2007_11, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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    70. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    71. Catalin Starica & Stefano Herzel & Tomas Nord, 2005. "Why does the GARCH(1,1) model fail to provide sensible longer- horizon volatility forecasts?," Econometrics 0508003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    72. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
    73. Renzo G. Avesani & Giampiero M. Gallo, 1999. "Interest Rate Volatility Regimes and Exchange Rate Behavior in a Target Zone," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-21, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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    74. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Research series 200711-27, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    75. Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    76. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    77. Éric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter E. Rossi, 1995. "Models and Priors for Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-18, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    78. L. Vanessa Smith & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "Firm Level Volatility-Return Analysis using Dynamic Panels," Discussion Papers 08/09, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    79. Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    80. W. Härdle & H. Herwartz & V. Spokoiny, . "Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modelling," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-7, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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    81. Richard T. Baillie & Claudio Morana, 2007. "Modeling Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Conditional Variances: an Adaptive FIGARCH Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 11-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    82. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    83. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    84. Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    85. Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    86. Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers tecipa-336, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    87. Frömmel, Michael, 2006. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries' Exchange Rates," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-333, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
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    88. José Luis Fernández-Serrano & M. Dolores Robles Fernández, 2004. "Política monetaria y cambios de régimen en los tipos de interés del mercado interbancario español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 349-376, May. [Downloadable!]
    89. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont. [Downloadable!]
    90. Massimiliano Cecconi & Giampiero M. Gallo & Marco J. Lombardi, 2002. "GARCH-based Volatility Forecasts for Market Volatility Indices," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2002_06, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
    91. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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    92. Blix, Mårten, 1997. "Rational Expectations in a VAR with Markov Switching," Seminar Papers 627, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    93. Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2006. "Volatility Transmission Across Markets: A Multi-Chain Markov Switching Model," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica "G. Parenti". [Downloadable!]
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    94. Braga de Macedo, Jorge & Catela Nunes, Luís & Covas, Francisco, 1999. "Moving the Escudo into the Euro," CEPR Discussion Papers 2248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    95. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Measuring Volatility Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    96. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington. [Downloadable!]
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    97. Melike Bildirici & Sadiye Oktay, 2009. "Volatility of Stock Return in ISE in Political Instability Period: Regime-Switching AP-GARCH Test," Working Papers 0010, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
    98. Carlos C. Bautista, 2005. "How volatile are East Asian stocks during high volatility periods?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 319-326, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    99. Michael Dueker, 1995. "Compound volatility processes in EMS exchange rates," Working Papers 1994-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    100. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2002. "Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
    101. James Morley, 2000. "Is There a Positive Intertemporal Tradeoff Between Risk and Return After All?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0915, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    102. Alistair Mees & Berndt Pilgram, 2000. "Non-Linear Markov Modelling Using Canonical Variate Analysis: Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1162, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    103. Van Norden, S. & Schaller, H., 1996. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching and Stock Market Crashes," Working Papers 96-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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    104. David Ardia, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of a Markov-Switching Threshold Asymmetric GARCH Model with Student-t Innovations," DQE Working Papers 6, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 08 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    105. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    106. Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2005. "A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios," Econometrics 0506009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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    107. Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2006. "Long And Short-Run Linkages In Cee Stock Markets: Implications For Portfolio Diversification And Stock Market Integration," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp832, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    108. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006. "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 369-381. [Downloadable!]
    109. M. Bigeco & E. Grosso & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "Recognizing and Forecasting the Sign of Financial Local Trends using Hidden Markov Models," Working Paper CRENoS 200803, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    110. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    111. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0011, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    112. Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions And Accurate Model For Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    113. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    114. Takayuki Shiohama, 2006. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of the Change Point for Semiparametric GARCH models," Discussion Paper Series a471, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    115. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    116. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    117. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnattaer & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Switching ARCH Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1381, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]

  23. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Goldberg, M.D. & Frydman, R., 1995. "Imperfect Knowledge and Behavior in the Foreign Exchange Market," Working Papers 95-30, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    2. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1991. "Re-examining the Empirical Performance of the Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate: A Problem of Structural Change," Working Papers 91-69, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    3. Frydman, R. & Goldberg, M.D., 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 03-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    4. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    5. Maurice Peat & Max Stevenson, 1995. "Testing for Nonlinearities in Economic and Financial Time Series," Working Paper Series 48, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1033, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2003. "Imperfect Knowledge and Asset Price Dynamics: Modeling the Forecasting of Rational Agents, Dynamic Prospect Theory and Uncertainty Premia on Foreign Exchange," Discussion Papers 03-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1010, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Goldberg, M.D. & Frydman, R., 1993. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models and Shifts in the Co-Integrating Vector," Working Papers 93-41, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    10. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2009. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," CREATES Research Papers 2009-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Michael D. Goldberg & Roman Frydman, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
    12. Yangru Wu, 1996. "Mean Reversion In Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 85-104, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    13. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2002. "Imperfect Knowledge, Temporal Instability and an Uncertainty Premium: Towards a Resolution of the Excess-Returns Puzzle in the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 02-17, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics, revised Nov 2002. [Downloadable!]
    14. Simon van Norden, 1995. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Econometrics 9502001, EconWPA, revised 09 Aug 1995. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth Froot, 1990. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 3470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:

  24. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Óscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, . "Us Deficit Sustainability Revisited: A Multiple Structural Change Approach," Working Papers 19-05 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. Harashima, Taiji, 2006. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in an Inflationary Economy," MPRA Paper 905, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
    3. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Sustainability Of Current Account For Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(1), pages 82-88. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    4. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries with an Application to Ecuador," RES Working Papers 4371, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    5. Mário Jorge Mendonça & Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires & Luiz Alberto Medrano, 2008. "Administração e Sustentabilidade da Dívida Pública no Brasil: Uma Análise para o Período 1995-2007," Discussion Papers 1342, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers 2007/20, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    7. Toshihiro Ihori & Atsushi Nakamoto, 2005. "Japan's fiscal policy and fiscal reconstruction," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 153-172, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. E. Telatar & N. Bolatoglu & F. Telatar, 2004. "A new approach on testing the behaviour of the governments towards sustainability of fiscal policy in a small-open and politically instable economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 333-336, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    9. Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Carlos José Fonseca Marinheiro, 2005. "Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 32, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Luis Gil-Alana, 2009. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence of Fractional Cointegration in an Asymmetric Modeling," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 143-155, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Jha, Raghbendra, 2001. "Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
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    13. Hans Genberg & Astrit Sulstarova, 2005. "Macroeconomic Volatility, Debt Dynamics, and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads," Working Papers 182005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. Troy Davig, 2005. "Periodically expanding discounted debt: a threat to fiscal policy sustainability?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 829-840. [Downloadable!]
    15. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Banco de España Working Papers 0103, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    16. Issouf Samake & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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    17. Alan J. Auerbach, 1994. "The U.S. Fiscal Problem: Where We Are, How We Got Here and Where We're Going," NBER Working Papers 4709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    18. Maxwell J. Fry, 1990. "Taiwan'S Current Account Surplus: Incipient Dutch Disease?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 93-112, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    19. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2002. "Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit," Economics Working Paper Archive 358, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    20. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2006. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico," Staff General Research Papers 12700, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Silika Prohl, 2008. "Sustainability of Swiss Fiscal Policy," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 144(I), pages 57-83, March. [Downloadable!]
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    22. Alain Paquet, 1998. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 59, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
    23. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves, 1998. "Assessing effective sustainability of fiscal policy within the G-7," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9815, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
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    24. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-372, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    25. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1990. "Taxing choices in deficit reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 556, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    26. Merih Uctum & Thom Thurston & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Public debt, the unit root hypothesis and structural breaks: a multi-country analysis," Post-Print halshs-00081527_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    27. Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Papers hal-00322091_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Vittorio U. Grilli, 1988. "Seigniorage in Europe," NBER Working Papers 2778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    30. Moorthy , Vivek & Singh, Bhupal & Dhal, Sarat Chandra, 2000. "Bond financing and debt stability: theoretical issues and empirical analysis for India," MPRA Paper 12148, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    31. Raghbendra Jha & Anurag Sharma, 2001. "Structural Breaks and Unit Roots: A Further Test of the Sustainability of the Indian Fiscal Deficit," ASARC Working Papers 2001-08, Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    32. Hess Chung & Eric Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," Caepr Working Papers 2007-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
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    33. Harald Badinger, 2006. "Fiscal shocks, output dynamics and macroeconomic stability: an empirical assessment for Austria (1983–2002)," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 267-284, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    34. Michael Getzner & Ernst Glatzer & Reinhard Neck, 2001. "On the Sustainability of Austrian Budgetary Policies," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 21-40, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    35. Carlos Díaz Alvarado & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ugo Panizza, 2004. "Viabilidad fiscal en países de mercados emergentes con un enfoque en Ecuador," RES Working Papers 4372, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    36. Kannan, R & Singh, Bhupal, 2007. "Debt-deficit dynamics in India and macroeconomic effects: A structural approach," MPRA Paper 16480, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007. [Downloadable!]
    37. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    38. Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira & Sampaio, Raquel Menezes Bezerra & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2006. "Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 631, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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    39. Thomas J. Finn, 1988. "A Note on the Real Federal Deficit," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 263-270, Jul-Sep. [Downloadable!]
    40. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2005. "Non-linear adjustments in fiscal policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/04, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University. [Downloadable!]
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    41. John Considine & David Duffy, 2006. "Partially sighted persons and the public debt elephant," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 237-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    42. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
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    43. Viviane Luporini, 2001. "The behavior of the Brazilian federal domestic debt," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td161, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
    44. Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 748, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    45. Hüseyin Kalyoncu, 2006. "International Intertemporal Solvency In Oecd Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(1), pages 44-49. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    46. John Considine & Liam A. Gallagher, 2004. "UK Debt Sustainability: Some Nonlinear Evidence and Theoretical Implications," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    47. Subrata Ghatak & José R. Sánchez-Fung, 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?," Discussion Papers 384, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    48. Annie Corbin, 2004. "Capital mobility and adjustment of the current account imbalances: a bounds testing approach to cointegration in 12 countries (1880-2001)," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 257-276. [Downloadable!]
    49. Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "The sustainability of Portuguese fiscal policy from a historical perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 155-179, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    50. Peter A. Prazmowski, 2005. "A recursive cointegration test using the Kalman filter and its application to fiscal equilibrium in the Dominican Republic," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 155-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    51. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational accounts: a meaningful alternative to deficit accounting," Working Paper 9103, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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    52. Cuddington, John T., 1997. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1784, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    53. Barbie, Martin & Hagedorn, Marcus & Kaul, Ashok, 2001. "Government Debt as Insurance against Macroeconomic Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 412, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    54. Alan J. Auerbach, 1990. "Public Sector Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    55. Maria do Rosario Correia & Reinhard Neck & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christian Richter, 2008. "An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 209-223, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    56. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Prudent Budgetary Policy: Political Economy of Precautionary Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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    57. Buiter, Willem H & Sibert, Anne, 2006. "Deflationary Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 5637, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    58. Oliver Kirchkamp & Michele Bernasconi & Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0608, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
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    59. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption – Saving Decisions: Evidence from Finland," Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    60. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2005. " Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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    61. Alfred Greiner & Uwe Koeller & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Testing the sustainability of German fiscal policy: evidence for the period 1960–2003," Empirica, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 127-140, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    62. Stanley Fischer, 1992. "Macroeconomic Stability and Growth," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(87), pages 171-186. [Downloadable!]
    63. António Afonso, 2006. "Sustainability of fiscal policy in the EU-15," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(1), pages 34-38, 04. [Downloadable!]
    64. Chadha, J.S. & Nolan, C., 2003. "On the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0303, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    65. Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach," CEIS Research Paper 111, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
    66. Srdjan Redepagic & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Working Papers 200746, Faculty of economics, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    67. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 1999. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    68. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 1998. "Public Debt Sustainability and Endogenous Seigniorage in Brazil: Time-Series Evidence From 1947-92 (Revised Version)," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 334, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    69. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    70. Yilmaz Akyüz, 2007. "Debt Sustainability in Emerging Markets: A Critical Appraisal," Working Papers 61, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
    71. Amir Kia, 2005. "Sustainability of the Fiscal Process in Developing Countries- Egypt, Iran and Turkey: A Multicointegration Approach," Carleton Economic Papers 05-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    72. Philip M. Bodman, 1997. "The Australian Trade Balance And Current Account: A Time Series Perspective," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 39-57, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    73. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2003. "Is the Budget Deficit Sustainable when Fiscal Policy is nonlinear? The Case of Spain, 1961-2001," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/32, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
    74. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers 2000/12, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    75. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    76. Shaghil Ahmed & John H. Rogers, 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits: are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," International Finance Discussion Papers 494, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    77. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves & Jolivaldt, Philippe, 1998. "Feedback covariates unit root tests : an application to the sustainability of fiscal policy," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9810, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
    78. António Afonso & Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: a New Approach," Working Papers 2009/19, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    79. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2005. "Regime Changes And The Sustainability Of Fiscal Imbalance In East Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    80. Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2001. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," Economics Working Papers 558, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2003. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    81. Gang Gong & Alfred Greiner & Willi Semmler, 2001. "Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 3-19, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    82. Alfred Greiner & Uwe Koeller & Willi Semmler, 2005. "Testing Sustainability of German Fiscal Policy. Evidence for the Period 1960 – 2003," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    83. Ales Krejdl, 2006. "Fiscal Sustainability - Definition, Indicators and Assessment of Czech Public Finance Sustainability," Working Papers 2006/3, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    84. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank independence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td125, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. [Downloadable!]
    85. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Working Papers 142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    86. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2009. "Assessing Long-Term Fiscal Developments: Evidence from Portugal," NIPE Working Papers 1/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    87. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    88. Andrea, SILVESTRINI, 2007. "Testing fiscal sustainability in Poland : a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007040, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    89. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    90. Ryuzo Miyao, 2004. "Economic Fundamentals or Financial Panic? An Empirical Study on the Origins of the Asian Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 151, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University. [Downloadable!]
    91. Toshihiro Ihori & Atsushi Nakamoto, 2005. "Japan's Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Reconstruction," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-99, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
    92. Alberto Bagnai, 2004. "Keynesian And Neoclassical Fiscal Sustainability Indicators, With Applications To Emu Member Countries," Working Papers 75, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:

  25. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, . "A model for the federal funds rate target," Department of Economics 99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    Published as:

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "When did the FOMC begin targeting the federal funds rate? what the verbatim transcripts tell us," Working Papers 2004-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    2. Thornton, Daniel L., 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target : is it open market or open mouth operations?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    3. Marcel Fratzscher, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 154, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    4. Kevin D. Hoover & Oscar Jorda, . "Measuring Systematic Monetary Policy," Department of Economics 00-05, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Michael C. Davis, 2007. "The dynamics of daily retail gasoline prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 713-722. [Downloadable!]
    6. Peter Christoffersen & Denis Pelletier, 2003. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-05, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    8. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, . "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Department of Economics 99-06, California Davis - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    9. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    10. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: an empirical investigation," Working Papers 2000-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Dieter Nautz & Christian J. Offermanns, 2007. "The dynamic relationship between the euro overnight rate, the ECB's policy rate and the term spread," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 287-300. [Downloadable!]
    12. Jeffrey M. Lacker, 2003. "Payment system disruptions and the Federal Reserve following September 11, 2001," Working Paper 03-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    13. Offermanns, Christian J. & Nautz, Dieter, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between the Euro overnight rate, the ECB´s policy rate and the term spread," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    14. Adrian Pagan, 1999. "The Getting of Macroeconomic Wisdom," CEPR Discussion Papers 412, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    15. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Arabinda Basistha & Richard Startz, 2004. "Why were changes in the federal funds rate smaller in the 1990s?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 339-354. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Leonardo Bartolini & Giuseppe Bertola & Alessandro Prati, 2000. "Day-to-day monetary policy and the volatility of the federal funds interest rate," Staff Reports 110, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Michael C. Davis & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," NBER Working Papers 9741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    19. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2008. "Monetary Policy Implementation and the Federal Funds Rate," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-025, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    20. Jorda, Oscar & Salyer, Kevin, 2001. "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 01-6, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    21. Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," Working Papers 0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    22. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee & Santosh Mishra, 2008. "Jumps in cross-sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 585-606. [Downloadable!]
    23. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts Based on Daily Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 5008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    24. Selva Demiralp & Òscar Jordà, 2002. "The announcement effect: evidence from open market desk data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 29-48. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
    26. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
    27. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2003. "Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 502, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    28. Michael J. Dueker, 2003. "Dynamic forecasts of qualitative variables: a Qual VAR model of U.S. recessions," Working Papers 2001-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. J. de Dios Tena & Edoardo Otranto, 2008. "A Realistic Model for Official Interest Rates," Working Paper CRENoS 200802, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
    30. Selva Demiralp, 2001. "Monetary policy in a changing world: rising role of expectations and the anticipation effect," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    31. Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    32. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 61-72. [Downloadable!]
    33. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    34. Brooks, Robert & Harris, Mark & Spencer, Christopher, 2007. "An Inflated Ordered Probit Model of Monetary Policy: Evidence from MPC Voting Data," MPRA Paper 8509, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    35. Santosh Mishra & Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Jumps in Rank and Expected Returns. Introducing Varying Cross-sectional Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 356, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    36. Clive G. Bowsher, 2003. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2003-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    37. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    38. Jorda, Oscar & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2000. "Stochastic Processes Subject to Time Scale Transformations: An Application to High-Frequency FX Data," Working Papers 00-2, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    39. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    40. Zhiwei Zhang, 2001. "Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 01/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    41. Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101. [Downloadable!]

Articles

  1. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  2. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  3. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's real about the business cycle?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 435-452. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  4. Davis, Michael C & Hamilton, James D, 2004. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-37, February.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  5. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Banco de España Working Papers 0731, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    2. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    3. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    4. Jane Sneddon Little, 2000. "Recent developments in U.S. energy markets: a background note," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    6. Eric Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical analysis of policy interventions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    7. Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "Monetary policy response to oil price shocks," Working Paper Series 2009-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    8. Montoro Carlos, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2007-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
    9. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    10. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    11. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    12. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2008. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Working Papers 14563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    13. Peng-fei Wang & Yi Wen, 2005. "Another look at sticky prices and output persistence," Working Papers 2005-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    14. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
    15. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2005. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," Macroeconomics 0512004, EconWPA, revised 31 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    16. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 505-516. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    17. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    18. Christophe Kamps & Christian Pierdzioch, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules and Oil Price Shocks," Kiel Working Papers 1090, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    19. Martin Schneider, 2004. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes on Growth and Inflation," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 27-36, July. [Downloadable!]
    20. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
      Other versions:
    21. Jin, Hyun & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2005. "Analysis of Multiple Structural Breaks in Relative Farm Prices in the United States, 1913-2003," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19118, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
    22. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    23. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    24. Mardi Dungey, 2001. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," CEPR Discussion Papers 443, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    25. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
    26. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    27. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    28. Johann Scharler, 2006. "Do Bank-Based Financial Systems Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility by Smoothing Interest Rates?," Working Papers 117, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    29. Owen Humpage & Eduard Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    30. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," International Finance Discussion Papers 897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    31. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2002. "Oil Price Shock: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-32, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    32. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and counterfactual experiments," Working Paper 0510, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    33. Bhattacharya, Jyotirmoy, 2008. "Oil Shocks: How Destabilizing are they?," MPRA Paper 12116, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    34. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2007. "Wavelet Variance Analysis of Output in G-7 Countries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3). [Downloadable!]
    35. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel & John Thompson, 2003. "Business cycles: the role of energy prices," Working Papers 03-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    36. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    37. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    38. Winkler, Roland & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006,19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    39. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices: Trends and Forecast," IMF Working Papers 08/133, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    40. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    41. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2005. "Oil prices, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy," Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    42. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    43. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    44. Al-Amin, Abul Quasem & Siwar, Chamhuri & Jaafar, Abdul hamid, 2008. "Impacts of External Price Shocks on Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 9308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    45. Jochen Moebert, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
    46. Munechika Katayama, . "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]

  6. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "Comment on "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods"," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1691-1693, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens & Marco Terrones, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    2. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    3. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers FARGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - Latec/Fargo (Research center in Finance,organizational ARchitecture and GOvernance). [Downloadable!]
    4. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," Faculty Working Papers 08/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
      Other versions:
    5. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]

  7. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  8. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  9. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

    See citations under working paper version above.

  10. James D. Hamilton & Baldev Raj, 2002. "New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-162. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Luigi Luini & Patrizia Sbriglia, 2005. "Social Learning in Market Games," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 003, University of Siena. [Downloadable!]
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    2. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
    3. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Ihle, R. & von Cramon-Taubadel, S., 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
    5. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]

  11. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
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  12. Hamilton, James D. & Monteagudo, Josefina, 1998. "The augmented Solow model and the productivity slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 495-509, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hamilton, James D., 1998. "The supply and demand for Federal Reserve deposits," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Comment on "U.S. Oil Consumption, Oil Prices, and the Macroeconomy."," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-56.

    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009. [Downloadable!]

  15. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "Specification testing in Markov-switching time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 127-157, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hamilton, James D & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 1996. "What Do the Leading Indicators Lead?," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(1), pages 27-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Hamilton, James D, 1992. "Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 157-78, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    2. Ritschl, Albrecht & Woitek, Ulrich, 2000. "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2547, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    3. James Harrigan & Kenneth Kuttner, 2004. "Lost Decade in Translation: Did the US Learn from Japan's Post-Bubble Mistakes?," NBER Working Papers 10938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. Donald W.K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1993. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1053, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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    5. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2006. "Was the New Deal contractionary?," Staff Reports 264, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    6. Eugene N. White & John Landon-Lane & Adam Klug, 2002. "How Could Everyone Have Been So Wrong? Forecasting The Great Depression With The Railroads," Departmental Working Papers 200209, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    7. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "A multivariate unobserved components model of cyclical activity," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1994. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," NBER Working Papers 4814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2005. "Great expectations and the end of the depression," Staff Reports 234, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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    10. Randall E. Parker & Phillip Rothman & Original: August 2000. This version: June 2003., . "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre-World War I and Interwar Periods," Working Papers 0302, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    11. Ritschl, Albrecht & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2003. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-war Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 4112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    12. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    13. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2000. "Re-examining the contributions of money and banking shocks to the U.S. Great Depression," Staff Report 270, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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    14. Randall E. Parker & James S. Fackler, . "Was Debt Deflation Operative during the Great Depression?: A Note," Working Papers 0102, East Carolina University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    15. Albrecht Ritschl & Ulrich Woitek, . "Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? A Bayesian VAR Analysis for the U.S. Economy," IEW - Working Papers iewwp050, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
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    16. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Benjamin Pugsley, 2007. "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Hamilton, James D, 1991. "A Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Estimating Parameters for Mixtures of Normal Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-39, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    2. Eric Ghysels, 1993. "A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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    3. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2004/479, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    4. Spencer Thompson & Nathan Lead, 1999. "Modelling Share Price Behaviour Across Time," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 071, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
    5. Charles Engel, 1994. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    6. Alberto Suarez & Santiago Carrillo, 2000. "Computational Tools For The Analysis Of Market Risk," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 144, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    7. Conor Dolan & Han Maas, 1998. "Fitting multivariage normal finite mixtures subject to structural equation modeling," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 227-253, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    8. René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1999. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Carleton Economic Papers 99-17, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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    9. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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    10. Tsung-Wu Ho, 2001. "Finite-sample properties of the bootstrap estimator in a Markov-switching model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 835-842, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    11. Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2003. "Business Cycle in the Industrial Production of Brazilian States," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] e75, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
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    12. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4). [Downloadable!]
    13. Ignacio Mauleon, Javier Perote, 2000. "Testing densities with financial data: an empirical comparison of the Edgeworth–Sargan density to the Student’s t," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 225-239, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    14. Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 84, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Rabault, 1993. "Une application du modèle de Hamilton à l'estimation des cycles économiques," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 30, pages 03, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
    2. P. de Grauwe & I. Vansteenkiste, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals a Non-Linear Relationship?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 78, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    3. P. Ruben Mercado, 2001. "Macroeconomic Volatility during Argentina’s Import Substitution Stage," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 151-161, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    4. David Jamieson Bolder, 2002. "Towards a More Complete Debt Strategy Simulation Framework," Working Papers 02-13, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    5. Chung-Hua Shen & Shyh-Wei Chen & Mei-Rong Lin, 2008. "Common wave behavior for mergers and acquisitions in OECD countries? a unique analysis using new Markov switching panel model approach," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
    6. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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