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Citations of

James Hamilton

Contents:

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Hamilton, James D., 1987. "Monetary factors in the great depression," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 145-169, March.

    Mentioned in:

    1. The Gold Standard
      by Josh in The everyday economist on 2007-11-13 13:42:43
    2. Branislav Žúdel: Ešte raz k inflácii
      by Kriteko in Kritická ekonómia on 2012-02-03 07:53:29
  2. James D. Hamilton, 1988. "Role Of The International Gold Standard In Propagating The Great Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 6(2), pages 67-89, 04.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Return to the gold standard
      by James Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2012-09-01 09:31:48
    2. Gold conspiracies
      by JP Koning in Moneyness on 2012-09-20 14:02:00
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Divergent Unemployment Rates
      by Mark Thoma in Economist's View on 2009-02-17 08:33:00
    2. Sectoral Rigidities
      by ryan in The bellows on 2009-02-10 01:10:03
    3. A macroeconomic naif's questions are answered
      by Michael J Roberts in Greed, Green and grains on 2009-02-09 04:07:00
    4. Divergent Unemployment Rates
      by Tim Duy in tim duy's fed watch on 2009-02-17 05:55:46
  4. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen: Perspectives on Monetary Policy
      by Guest Author in The Big Picture on 2012-06-07 11:05:32
    2. Full text: Janet Yellen – Perspectives on Monetary Policy
      by Guest Author in Credit Writedowns on 2012-06-07 13:10:28
    3. Quel est l’efficacité de l’assouplissement quantitatif ?
      by ? in D'un champ l'autre on 2014-05-01 12:19:00

Wikipedia mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Author Profile
    1. James D. Hamilton in Wikipedia (English)
    2. Benutzer:Ephraim33/Nobelpreisträgerprojekt in Wikipedia (German)

Working papers

  1. David Greenlaw & James D. Hamilton & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2013. "Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 19297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2013. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Working Paper Series 2013-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Soldatos, Gerasimos T., 2014. "A Fiscal-Monetary Policy Scheme Against Greek Indebtedness and Impoverishment," MPRA Paper 57080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yýlmaz Akyüz, 2014. "Crisis Mismanagement in The United States And Europe: Impact On Developing Countries And Longer-Term Consequences," Working Papers 2014/3, Turkish Economic Association.

  2. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2013. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2013. "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a "Carry Trade" Model of Commodity Prices," Working Paper Series rwp13-022, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2014. "How does bad and good volatility spill over across petroleum markets?," Papers 1405.2445, arXiv.org.

  3. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Barillas, Francisco & Nimark, Kristoffer P, 2013. "Speculation, Risk Premia and Expectations in the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 9755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    4. Mirko Abbritti & Luis Gil-Alana & Yuliya Lovcha & Antonio Moreno, 2012. "Term Structure Persistence," Faculty Working Papers 26/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Mirkov, Nikola & Sutter, Barbara, 2012. "Central Bank Reserves and the Yield Curve at the ZLB," Working Papers on Finance 1208, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2013. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Term premia and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Effects of Index-Fund Investing on Commodity Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.
    11. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Olena Chyruk & Luca Benzoni & Andrea Ajello, 2012. "Core and `Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 922, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  4. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    2. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.

  5. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," NBER Working Papers 16956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Refet S. G�rkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-67, June.
    2. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Testable implications of affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 231-242.
    4. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Estimating the macroeconomic effects of the Fed’s asset purchases," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan31.
    5. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steven B. Kamin & Ralph W. Tryon, 2011. "ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "How Persistent are Monetary Policy Effects at the Zero Lower Bound?," Working Papers 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Mark Carney, 2012. "Un marco de política monetaria para todas las estaciones," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 69-77, Abril-jun.
    8. Rogers, John H. & Scotti, Chiara & Wright, Jonathan H., 2014. "Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison," International Finance Discussion Papers 1101, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2012. "Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB," CEPS Papers 7160, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    10. Iryna Kaminska & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 14/66, International Monetary Fund.
    11. King, Thomas B., 2013. "A Portfolio-Balance Approach to the Nominal Term Structure," Working Paper Series WP-2013-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    12. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "What factors influence the yield curve?," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 9(1), pages 28-39, March.
    13. Heike Schenkelberg & Sebastian Watzka, 2011. "Real Effects of Quantitative Easing at the Zero-Lower Bound: Structural VAR-based Evidence from Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 3486, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S., 2013. "Long-Term Interest Rates : a speech at the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference: The Past and Future of Monetary Policy, sponsored by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, Califor," Speech 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F271-F288, November.
    16. Stefania D’Amico & William English & David López‐Salido & Edward Nelson, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's Large‐scale Asset Purchase Programmes: Rationale and Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F415-F446, November.
    17. Kapetanios, George & Mumtaz, Haroon & Stevens, Ibrahim & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Assessing the economy-wide effects of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 443, Bank of England.
    18. Michael D. Bauer & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2012-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Fawley, Brett W. & Neely, Christopher J., 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
    20. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities," NBER Working Papers 19253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Hess Chung & Jean-Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2011. "Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events?," Working Paper Series 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2012. "The ECB Unconventional Monetary Policies: Have They Lowered Market Borrowing Costs for Banks and Governments?," Working Papers 2012-36, CEPII research center.
    23. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
    24. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2011. "Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements During the Global Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
    27. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "Identification and Estimation of Gaussian Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 17772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    29. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    30. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Christian Grisser, 2012. "Iniciativas de política durante la recesión global. ¿Cuáles eran las expectativas de los analistas?," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 78-93, Abril-jun.
    31. Song, Zhaogang & Zhu, Haoxiang, 2014. "QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Jarrow, Robert A., 2013. "The zero-lower bound on interest rates: Myth or reality?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 151-156.
    33. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2013. "On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 1557, European Central Bank.
    34. Alfonso Palacio-Vera, 2011. "Quantitative Easing, Functional Finance, and the "Neutral" Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_685, Levy Economics Institute.
    35. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2013. "Risk Premia in Crude Oil Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 19056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Kaminska, Iryna & Vayanos, Dimitri & Zinna, Gabriele, 2011. "Preferred-habitat investors and the US term structure of real rates," Bank of England working papers 435, Bank of England.
    37. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2012. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on medium- and longer-term interest rates," Working Paper Series 2012-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. Andreas Kettemann & Signe Krogstrup, 2013. "Portfolio balance effects of the SNB's bond purchase program," Working Papers 2013-01, Swiss National Bank.
    39. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
    40. Yellen, Janet L., 2011. "Unconventional monetary policy and central bank communications : a speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York, February 25, 2011," Speech 604, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    41. Signe Krogstrup & Samuel Reynard & Barbara Sutter, 2012. "Liquidity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Papers 2012-02, Swiss National Bank.
    42. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "Short-rate expectations and term premia: experiences from Hungary and other emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 185-196 Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    44. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2011. "Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 289-352.
    45. Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, 2012. "Some Possible Consequences of a U.S. Government Default," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(1), pages 24-40, January.
    46. Matthew D. Raskin, 2013. "The effects of the Federal Reserve's date-based forward guidance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    47. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    48. Christoph Trebesch & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2014. "ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds," CESifo Working Paper Series 4731, CESifo Group Munich.
    49. Bernanke, Ben S., 2012. "Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis : a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 31, 2012," Speech 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    50. Huberto M. Ennis & Alexander L. Wolman, 2012. "Large excess reserves in the U.S.: a view from the cross-section of banks," Working Paper 12-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    51. Berge, Travis J. & Cao, Guangye, 2014. "Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 1-10.
    52. Michael T. Kiley, 2012. "The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    53. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2013. "The Simple Analytics of Monetary Policy: A Post-Crisis Approach," NBER Working Papers 18960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264 Bank for International Settlements.
    55. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
    56. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F447-F466, November.
    57. Yellen, Janet L., 2013. "Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy : a speech at the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2013," Speech 628, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    58. Ellis W. Tallman & Saeed Zaman, 2012. "Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    59. Apostolos Serletis & Khandokar Istiak & Periklis Gogas, 2013. "Interest Rates, Leverage, and Money," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 51-78, February.
    60. Kettemann, Andreas & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Portfolio balance effects of the Swiss National Bank’s bond purchase program," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 132-149.
    61. Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt & Qiao Zhang, 2013. "Large Scale Asset Purchases with segmented mortgage and corporate loan markets," Working Papers of BETA 2013-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    62. Foerster, Andrew & Cao, Guangye, 2013. "Expectations of large-scale asset purchases," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-29.
    63. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Christian Grisse, 2012. "Policy initiatives in the global recession: what did forecasters expect?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Feb).
    64. Annette Meinusch & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201426, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    65. Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2012. "Dos objetivos, dos instrumentos: políticas monetaria y cambiaria en economías de mercados emergentes," Boletín, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 94-114, Abril-jun.
    66. Burns, Andrew & Kida, Mizuho & Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Unconventional monetary policy normalization in high-income countries : implications for emerging market capital flows and crisis risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6830, The World Bank.
    67. Carol Bertaut & Laurie Pounder DeMarco & Steve Kamin & Ralph Tryon, 2011. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    68. Philip Turner, 2011. "Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate," FMG Special Papers sp199, Financial Markets Group.
    69. Jeff W. Huther & Jason S. Seligman, 2013. "Yield curve impacts of forward guidance and maturity extension programs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    70. Kühl, Michael, 2014. "Mitigating financial stress in a bank-financed economy: Equity injections into banks or purchases of assets?," Discussion Papers 19/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    71. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2014. "Swiss unconventional monetary policy: lessons for the transmission of quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    72. Doran, David & Dunne, Peter & Monks, Allen & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2013. "Was the Securities Markets Programme Effective in Stabilizing Irish Sovereign Yields?," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
    73. Jens Christensen & James Gillan, 2012. "Do Fed TIPS purchases affect market liquidity?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar5.
    74. Richard Wood, 2012. "Delivering economic stimulus, addressing rising public debt and avoiding inflation," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 4-24, April.
    75. Urszula Szcserbowicz, 2011. "Are unconventional monetary policies effective?," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    76. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    77. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    78. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2013. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on yields and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2013-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    79. Bertaut, Carol & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder & Kamin, Steven & Tryon, Ralph, 2012. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 219-234.
    80. Sofía Bauducco & Rodrigo Caputo, 2013. "Wicksell Versus Taylor: A Quest for Determinancy and the (IR) Relevance of the Taylor Principle," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 705, Central Bank of Chile.
    81. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.

  6. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nazir, Sidra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2014. "Impact of Oil Price and Shocks on Economic Growth of Pakistan: Multivariate Analysis," MPRA Paper 55929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    4. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    5. Aleksandar Zaklan & Jan Abrell & Anne Neumann, 2011. "Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1152, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    7. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," CAMA Working Papers 2014-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "Chinese monetary expansion and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 48050, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. PIERRET, Diane, 2013. "The systemic risk of energy markets," CORE Discussion Papers 2013018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    10. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Nusair, Salah A., 2013. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-353.
    11. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," Working Papers 15728, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 17 Dec 2012.
    12. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Paper 2012/11, Norges Bank.
    13. J.-B. Bernard & G. Cléaud, 2013. "Oil price: the nature of the shocks and the impact on the French economy," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    14. Sun, Rongrong, 2012. "Nominal Rigidity and Some New Evidence on the New Keynesian Theory of the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," MPRA Paper 45021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Why crude oil prices are high when global activity is weak?," Working Papers 2013-01, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 20 Mar 2013.
    16. Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
    17. Jamil, Faisal, 2012. "Impact of different public E&P policies on natural gas reserves and production in Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 368-374.
    18. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    19. Trevor Houser & Shashank Mohan, 2011. "America’s Energy Security Options," Policy Briefs PB11-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.

  7. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2011. "Testable Implications of Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 16931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
    2. Yun, Tack & Kim, Jinsook & Ko, Eunmi, 2012. "The Role of Bounded Rationality in Macro-Finance Affine Term-Structure Models," MPRA Paper 44212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Juneja, Januj, 2014. "Term structure estimation in the presence of autocorrelation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 119-129.

  8. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Nonlinearities and the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 16186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Syed Abul Basher & Alfred Haug & Perry Sadorsky, 2010. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets," Working Papers 1014, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
    2. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
    3. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    4. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    5. Madowitz, M. & Novan, K., 2013. "Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 663-673.
    6. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, 03.
    8. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    9. Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 468-473.
    10. Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Stock markets and energy prices," MPRA Paper 53863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    12. Knetsch, Thomas A. & Molzahn, Alexander, 2009. "Supply-side effects of strong energy price hikes in German industry and transportation," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    13. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2014. "Testing for asymmetric causality from U.S. equity returns to commodity futures returns," Working Papers 2014-545, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    14. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    15. Fraas, Arthur G. & Harrington, Winston & Morgenstern, Richard D., 2013. "Cheaper Fuels for the Light-Duty Fleet: Opportunities and Barriers," Discussion Papers dp-13-28, Resources For the Future.
    16. Francisco Craveiro Dias, 2013. "Oil price shocks and their effects on economic activity and prices: an application for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    19. Christopher L. Foote & Jane S. Little, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: a conference summary," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Brown, Stephen P.A. & Huntington, Hillard G., 2013. "Assessing the U.S. oil security premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 118-127.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan & Poon, Wai Ching & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 137-146.
    22. Paresh K. Narayan & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Has Oil Pirce Predicted Stock Returns for Over a Century?," Working Papers 201446, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    23. Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher, 2013. "Oil price uncertainty, monetary policy and the macroeconomy: The Canadian perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-259.

  9. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Linda S. Goldberg & Christian Grisse, 2013. "Time variation in asset price responses to macro announcements," Staff Reports 626, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Lapp, John S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 2012. "The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-379.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  10. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2010. "Sources of Variation in Holding Returns for Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 15736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sven Schreiber, 2014. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers - A comment," CDMA Working Paper Series 201404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    2. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.

  11. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
    2. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
    4. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2013. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," Working Papers 13 BAWP, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    5. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
    6. Pierre Guerin & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Markov-Switching MIDAS Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/03, European University Institute.
    7. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions," IMF Working Papers 11/235, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    9. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2014. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand's Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Shaun P Vahey & Elizabeth C Wakerly, 2013. "Moving towards probability forecasting," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation and inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 70, pages 3-8 Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    13. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points with (relatively large) linear systems in real time," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79709, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Wildi, Marc, 2010. "Real-Time Signal Extraction: a Shift of Perspective/Extracción de señal en tiempo real: un cambio de perspectiva," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 497-518, Diciembre.
    16. Schreiber, Sven, 2014. "Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Real-time Markov Switching and Leading Indicators in Times of the Financial Crisis," IMK Working Paper 98-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    18. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
    19. Österholm, Pär, 2012. "The limited usefulness of macroeconomic Bayesian VARs when estimating the probability of a US recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 76-86.
    20. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    21. Paul Viefers, 2011. "Bayesian Inference for the Mixed-Frequency VAR Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1172, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

  12. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered housing cycles," Working Papers 2013-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
      • Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T Owyang & Margarita Rubio, 2013. "Clustered Housing Cycles," Discussion Papers 2013/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    2. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," Working Papers 2011-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri & Alessandra Fogli, 2013. "The Geography of the Great Recession," 2013 Meeting Papers 1102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Maria Dolores Gadea & Ana Gomez Loscos & Antonio Montañes, 2011. "Cycles Inside Cycles. Spanish Regional Aggregation," WIFO Working Papers 390, WIFO.
    5. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," MPRA Paper 30757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Beck, Günter & Hubrich, Kirstin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "On the importance of sectoral and regional shocks for price-setting," CEPR Discussion Papers 8357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andra C. Ghent & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities," Working Papers 2009-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2012. "Forecasting national recessions using state-level data," MPRA Paper 39168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wall, Howard J., 2011. "The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities," MPRA Paper 29410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Francis, Neville & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2014.
    13. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Özge Savascin, 2012. "An endogenously clustered factor approach to international business cycles," Working Papers 2012-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    14. Kaufmann Sylvia, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Asako, Kazumi & Onodera, Takashi & Ueda, Atsuko, 2014. "An Analysis of Regional Business Cycles using Prefectural Composite Indexes in Japan," Discussion Paper Series 603, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

  13. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2012. "Do people undestand monetary policy?," Working Paper Series 2012-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2010. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 16412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    5. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michael D. Bauer, 2011. "Nominal interest rates and the news," Working Paper Series 2011-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Nikolay Markov & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Estimating Taylor Rules for Switzerland: Evidence from 2000 to 2012," Working Papers 2013-08, Swiss National Bank.

  14. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Speculation in the Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 9808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Susan S Sharma & Kannan Thuraisamy, 2012. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Asian Economies," Financial Econometics Series 2012_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    3. Gert Peersman & Christiane Baumeister, 2009. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," 2009 Meeting Papers 171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2013. "Does the Source of Oil Price Shocks Matter for South African Stock Returns? A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers 201318, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. Harsem, Øistein & Eide, Arne & Heen, Knut, 2011. "Factors influencing future oil and gas prospects in the Arctic," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8037-8045.
    6. Liu, Li & Chen, Ching-Cheng & Wan, Jieqiu, 2013. "Is world oil market “one great pool”?: An example from China's and international oil markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 364-373.
    7. Claudio Morana, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Working Papers 225, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2013.
    8. David I. Stern & Kerstin Enflo, 2013. "Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run," CAMA Working Papers 2013-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Christopher L. Foote & Jane S. Little, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: a conference summary," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Working Papers 89, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
    11. Jean-Marc Natal, 2010. "Monerary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 2010-15, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2014. "World oil production trend: Comparing Hubbert multi-cycle curves," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-71.
    13. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Sévi, Benoît & Le Pen, Yannick & Chevallier, Julien & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11692, Paris Dauphine University.
    15. Ratti, Ronald & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2012. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China’s influence over 1996-2011," Working Papers 15062, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 20 Sep 2012.
    16. Miffre, Joëlle & Brooks, Chris, 2013. "Do long-short speculators destabilize commodity futures markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 230-240.
    17. Markus Ludwig, . "The Visible Hand: National Oil Companies, Oil Supply and the Ermergence of the Hotelling Rent," Working papers 2012/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    18. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    19. William Gavin & Benjamin Keen & Finn Kydland, . "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Avalos, Fernando, 2014. "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-271.
    21. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Crude Oil Prices and Liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Working Papers 15727, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 17 Dec 2012.
    22. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2009. "US Industry-Level Returns and Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 15670, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Philippe Charlot & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Working Papers hal-00980125, HAL.
    24. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," MPRA Paper 49008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Luca Guerrieri & Martin Bodenstein, 2012. "Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: a Tale of Ups and Downs," 2012 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2012. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," Working Papers 0007, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    28. Berthold, Norbert & Gründler, Klaus, 2013. "The determinants of stagflation in a panel of countries," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge 117 [rev.], Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik.
    29. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    30. Nixon, Dan & Smith, Tom, 2012. "What can the oil futures curve tell us about the outlook for oil prices?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(1), pages 39-47.
    31. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2014. "Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," NBER Working Papers 20070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    33. Rashid, Abdul & Kocaaslan, Ozge Kandemir, 2013. "Does Energy Consumption Volatility Affect Real GDP Volatility? An Empirical Analysis for the UK," MPRA Paper 49580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian & Stern, David I., 2013. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," FCN Working Papers 11/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    35. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    36. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "Cross-Country Differences in the Effects of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3306, CESifo Group Munich.
    37. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Teresa Maria Rodrigues & Maria Joana Soares, 2012. "Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area," NIPE Working Papers 07/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    38. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    39. Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
    40. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    41. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    42. Bachmeier, Lance, 2013. "Identification in models of gasoline pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 71-73.
    43. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regimeswitching perspective," Working Papers 2014-080, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    44. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    46. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    47. Charfeddine Lanouar, 2014. "True or Spurious Long Memory in Volatility : Further Evidence on the Energy Futures Markets," Working Papers 2014-503, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    48. Jochen Güntner, 2013. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Economics working papers 2013-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    49. Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "How do OPEC news and structural breaks impact returns and volatility in crude oil markets? Further evidence from a long memory process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-354.
    51. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    52. Lambert, Jessica G. & Hall, Charles A.S. & Balogh, Stephen & Gupta, Ajay & Arnold, Michelle, 2014. "Energy, EROI and quality of life," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-167.
    53. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 11/194, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Li, Hong & Xiaowen Lin, Sharon, 2011. "Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4624-4630, August.
    55. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    56. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    57. Paul Cashin & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi & Maziar Raissi, 2012. "The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 12/253, International Monetary Fund.
    58. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    59. Jan Hošek & Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Price of Oil," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 22-46.
    60. Pierre L Siklos, 2010. "Relative Price Shocks, Inflation Expectations, and the Role of Monetary Policy," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
    61. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M. & Lindenberger, Dietmar & Warr, Benjamin, 2013. "The underestimated contribution of energy to economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-88.
    62. Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Nomikos, Nikos, 2014. "Performance replication of the Spot Energy Index with optimal equity portfolio selection: Evidence from the UK, US and Brazilian markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 571-582.
    63. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-38, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    64. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    65. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices, exchange rate, and stock market: A dynamic causality analysis on the European market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 199-202.
    66. Fantazzini, Dean & Hook, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," MPRA Paper 33825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    67. Moez Khalfallah & Bruno-Laurent Moschetto & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Evaluation of the profitability of companies financed by venture capital (CVC) listed on the French market," Working Papers 2014-085, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    68. Chiou-Wei, Song-Zan & Linn, Scott C. & Zhu, Zhen, 2014. "The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 156-173.
    69. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Tverberg, Gail E., 2013. "An analysis of China's coal supply and its impact on China's future economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 542-551.
    70. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    71. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010.
    72. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    73. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
    74. Peter Maniloff, 2013. "Ethanol and Energy Security," Working Papers 2013-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    75. Millard, Stephen & Shakir, Tamarah, 2013. "Oil shocks and the UK economy: the changing nature of shocks and impact over time," Bank of England working papers 476, Bank of England.
    76. Berthold, Norbert & Gründler, Klaus, 2012. "Stagflation in the world economy: A revival?," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Beiträge 117, Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg, Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbes. Wirtschaftsordnung und Sozialpolitik.
    77. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "Inflation Persistence or the Protracted Effects of Commodity Price Changes?," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.

  15. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Bretschger, Lucas & Kappel, Vivien & Werner, Therese, 2012. "Market concentration and the likelihood of financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3336-3345.
    2. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nunley, John & Zietz, Joachim, 2008. "The U.S. Divorce Rate: The 1960s Surge Versus Its Long-Run Determinants," MPRA Paper 16317, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2008.
    4. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Martin Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
    6. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-21, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    8. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2012. "Stock returns and inflation: Evidence from quantile regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 283-286.
    9. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk J., 2012. "The Role of Credit in Great Moderation: a Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 39813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dennis, Wesselbaum, 2012. "Stochastic Volatility in the U.S. Labor Market," MPRA Paper 43054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Barrera, Carlos, 2010. "¿Respuesta asimétrica de precios domésticos de combustibles ante choques en el WTI?," Working Papers 2010-016, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    12. Barrera, Carlos R., 2011. "Impacto amplificador del ajuste de inventarios ante choques de demanda según especificaciones flexibles," Working Papers 2011-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    13. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric, 2013. "The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 33-37.

  16. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    2. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Macroeconomics and ARCH," NBER Working Papers 14151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2014. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.

  17. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," NBER Working Papers 14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    2. McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185.
    3. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets - Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Kiel Working Papers 1706, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics," Ruhr Economic Papers 0167, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2012. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 12-2, Bank of Canada.
    6. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Ploeg, 2013. "Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 827-866, October.
    7. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    8. G. Lalanne & E. Pouliquen & O. Simon, 2009. "Oil price and potential output growth in the long run," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2009-09, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    9. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 75, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Stern, David & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality Between Energy and Output in the Long-Run," Lund Papers in Economic History 126, Department of Economic History, Lund University.
    11. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    12. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Habis, Essam & Juhabi, Eid, 2014. "Oil price risk exposure: The case of the U.S. Travel and Leisure Industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 117-124.
    13. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Hostland & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 13/256, International Monetary Fund.
    14. James L. Smith, 2008. "World Oil: Market or Mayhem?," Working Papers 0815, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    15. Patrick Criqui & Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino & Anil Markandaya & Silvana Mima, 2014. "Low climate stabilisation under diverse growth and convergence scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00872630, HAL.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Allessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 988, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    18. Jochen Güntner, 2013. "How do oil producers respond to oil demand shocks?," Economics working papers 2013-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone & Andrea Tesei, 2012. "Oil Price Shocks, Income, and Democracy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 389-399, May.
    20. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
    21. Jozef Barunik & Evzen Kocenda & Lukas Vacha, 2014. "How does bad and good volatility spill over across petroleum markets?," Papers 1405.2445, arXiv.org.
    22. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    23. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
    24. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Pereira, Rui M., 2014. "On the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of fossil fuel prices: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the Portuguese case," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 248-261.
    25. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Aggressive Oil Extraction and Precautionary Saving: Coping with Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3038, CESifo Group Munich.
    26. Martin Stuermer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse12_2013, University of Bonn, Germany.
    27. Chia-Hsing Huang & Liang-Chun Ho, 2011. "Do bio-fuel policies lead to speculative behavior?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 161-174, July.
    28. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    29. Barkoulas, John T. & Chakraborty, Atreya & Ouandlous, Arav, 2012. "A metric and topological analysis of determinism in the crude oil spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 584-591.
    30. Vipin Arora, 2011. "Arbitrage and the Price of Oil," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2011-535, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    31. Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
    32. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    33. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    34. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A Simple Model of an Oil Based Global Savings Glut: The "China Factor" and the OPEC Cartel," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 911, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    35. Jens H.E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "Extracting Deflation Probability Forecasts from Treasury Yields," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(4), pages 21-60, December.
    36. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    37. Marc Gronwald, 2011. "A Characterization of Oil Price Behavior - Evidence from Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3644, CESifo Group Munich.
    38. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.
    39. Martina, Esteban & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Escarela-Perez, Rafael & Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Multiscale entropy analysis of crude oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 936-947, September.
    40. Chen, Xiaoguang & Huang, Haixiao & Khanna, Madhu & Önal, Hayri, 2014. "Alternative transportation fuel standards: Welfare effects and climate benefits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 241-257.
    41. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
    42. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2014. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," Working Papers 2014-1, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    43. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J Venables, 2012. "Natural Resource Wealth: The challenge of managing a windfall," OxCarre Working Papers 075, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    44. Guesmi, Khaled & Fattoum, Salma, 2014. "Return and volatility transmission between oil prices and oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 305-310.
    45. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Working Papers 2013-019, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    46. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    47. Möbert, Jochen, 2009. "Unterschiedliche Markteinschätzungen von Spekulanten als Determinante des Rohölpreises," Research Notes 32, Deutsche Bank Research.
    48. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    49. Xu, Bing & Ouenniche, Jamal, 2012. "A data envelopment analysis-based framework for the relative performance evaluation of competing crude oil prices' volatility forecasting models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 576-583.
    50. Michał Falkowski, 2011. "Financialization of commodities," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 5(4), December.
    51. Martin Stürmer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2012. "Non-Renewable but Inexhaustible – Resources in an Endogenous Growth Model," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    52. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_23, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    53. Kirk Hamilton & Giles Atkinson, 2013. "Resource Discoveries, Learning and National Income Accounting," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 117, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    54. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo Group Munich.
    55. Markus Ludwig, . "The Visible Hand: National Oil Companies, Oil Supply and the Ermergence of the Hotelling Rent," Working papers 2012/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    56. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Zur empirischen Analyse des Ölpreises – ein Überblick über aktuelle Forschungsergebnisse," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(01), pages 16-19, 01.
    57. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
    58. Matteo Manera & Marcella Nicolini & Ilaria Vignati, 2013. "Futures price volatility in commodities markets: The role of short term vs long term speculation," DEM Working Papers Series 042, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    59. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    60. Acemoglu, Daron & Finkelstein, Amy & Notowidigdo, Matthew J., 2009. "Income and Health Spending: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    61. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    62. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(2), pages 664-694, February.
    63. Michael Ye & John Zyren & Joanne Shore & Thomas Lee, 2010. "Crude Oil Futures as an Indicator of Market Changes: A Graphical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 257-268, August.
    64. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
    65. Dobronogov, Anton & Gelb, Alan & Saldanha, Fernando Brant, 2014. "How should donors respond to resource windfalls in poor countries ? from aid to insurance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6952, The World Bank.
    66. Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Does the Oil Price Adjust Optimally to Oil Field Discoveries?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/169, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    67. Beatrix Gaitan & Terry Roe, 2012. "International Trade, Exhaustible-Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(1), pages 72-93, January.
    68. Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim & Shokoohi, Zainab, 2011. "Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1022-1025, February.
    69. HIGASHIDA Keisaku & MORITA Tamaki & MANAGI Shunsuke & TAKARADA Yasuhiro, 2013. "Does the Acquisition of Mines by Firms in Resource-importing Countries Decrease Resource Prices?," Discussion papers 13073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    70. Chang, Roberto & Hevia, Constantino & Loayza, Norman, 2009. "Privatization and nationalization cycles," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5029, The World Bank.
    71. Muneesh Kapur & Rakesh Mohan, 2014. "India’s Recent Macroeconomic Performance: An Assessment and Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 14/68, International Monetary Fund.
    72. Möbert, Jochen, 2009. "Do speculators drive crude oil prices? Dispersion in beliefs as a price determinant," Research Notes 32e, Deutsche Bank Research.
    73. Eisgruber, Lasse, 2013. "The resource curse: Analysis of the applicability to the large-scale export of electricity from renewable resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 429-440.
    74. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    75. Soren T. Anderson & Ryan Kellogg & James M. Sallee, 2011. "What Do Consumers Believe About Future Gasoline Prices?," NBER Working Papers 16974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Madowitz, M. & Novan, K., 2013. "Gasoline taxes and revenue volatility: An application to California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 663-673.
    77. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    78. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    79. Marc Gronwald & Johannes Mayr & Sultan Orazbayev, 2009. "Estimating the effects of oil price shockson the Kazakh economy," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper Nr. 81, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    80. Jeffrey Clemens, 2013. "An Analysis of Economic Warfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 523-27, May.
    81. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    82. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    83. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu, 2013. "Efficiency of Crude Oil Futures Markets: New Evidence from Multifractal Detrending Moving Average Analysis," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 393-414, December.
    84. Sunil Mohanty & Aigbe Akhigbe & Tawfeek Al-Khyal & Turki Bugshan, 2013. "Oil and stock market activity when prices go up and down: the case of the oil and gas industry," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 253-272, August.
    85. Hamilton, Kirk & Atkinson, Giles, 2013. "Resource discoveries, learning, and national income accounting," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6505, The World Bank.
    86. Drabik, Dušan & de Gorter, Harry, 2013. "Emissions from Indirect Land Use Change: Do they Matter with Fuel Market Leakages?," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra Provider-Homepage: http://www.roaae.org;Association of Agricultural Economists in Slovakia (APES), vol. 16(2).
    87. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li, 2010. "Is WTI crude oil market becoming weakly efficient over time?: New evidence from multiscale analysis based on detrended fluctuation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 987-992, September.
    88. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    89. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Joan Camilo Granados Castro & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009199, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    90. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    91. Dvir, Eyal & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2014. "Demand effects and speculation in oil markets: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 113-128.
    92. Hui Jun ZHANG & Jean-Marie DUFOUR & John W. GALBRAITH, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices : Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Cahiers de recherche 14-2013, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    93. Moya-Martínez, Pablo & Ferrer-Lapeña, Román & Escribano-Sotos, Francisco, 2014. "Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 280-290.
    94. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
    95. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    96. Carlos Caceres & Leandro Medina, 2012. "Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/260, International Monetary Fund.
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    98. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2013. "Are crude oil spot and futures prices cointegrated? Not always!," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 641-650.
    99. Khaled Guesmi & Salma Fattoum, 2014. "Measuring contagion effects between crude oil and OECD stock markets," Working Papers 2014-090, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    100. Demachi, Kazue, 2012. "The effect of crude oil price change and volatility on Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 41413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    101. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    102. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin & Rittler, Daniel, 2012. "On the Macroeconomic Determinants of the Long-Term Oil-Stock Correlation," Working Papers 0525, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    103. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    104. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    105. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    106. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2013. "Oil and political survival," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 89-106.
    107. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    108. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2014. "Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior," Working Paper Series WP14-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    109. Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    110. Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    111. Elliott, Robert J. & Lyle, Matthew R. & Miao, Hong, 2010. "A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 838-847, July.
    112. Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
    113. Brückner, Markus & Schwandt, Hannes, 2013. "Income and Population Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 7422, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    114. Carrosio, Giovanni, 2013. "Energy production from biogas in the Italian countryside: Policies and organizational models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 3-9.
    115. Heni Boubaker & Khaled Guesmi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Gauging the nonstationarity and asymmetries in the oil-stock price links: a multivariate analysis," Working Papers 2014-442, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    116. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    117. Azar, Jose, 2009. "Electric Cars and Oil Prices," MPRA Paper 15538, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    118. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 13/261, International Monetary Fund.
    119. Roberto Iacono, 2012. "Is it really worse with a Bird in Hand? A comparison of fiscal rules for resource-rich economies," Working Paper Series 12612, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
    120. Martin Stuermer, 2013. "Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse13_2013, University of Bonn, Germany.
    121. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    122. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    123. Tokic, Damir, 2010. "The 2008 oil bubble: Causes and consequences," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6009-6015, October.
    124. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "How do OPEC news and structural breaks impact returns and volatility in crude oil markets? Further evidence from a long memory process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 343-354.
    125. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    126. Algieri, Bernardina, 2012. "Price Volatility, Speculation and Excessive Speculation in Commodity Markets: sheep or shepherd behaviour?," Discussion Papers 124390, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    127. Claudio Dicembrino & Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, 2012. "The Fundamental and Speculative Components of the Oil Spot Price: A Real Option Value Approach," CEIS Research Paper 229, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    128. Brückner, Markus & Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2012. "Estimating the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner's law based on oil price shocks," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1025-1035.
    129. Clemens, Jeffrey, 2013. "Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade," MPRA Paper 57890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    130. Carlo Rosa, 2013. "The high-frequency response of energy prices to monetary policy: understanding the empirical evidence," Staff Reports 598, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    131. Khaled GUESMI & Salma FATTOUM, 2014. "The Relationship between Oil Price and OECD Stock Markets: A Multivariate Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 510-519.
    132. Jochen H. F. Güntner, 2011. "How do international stock markets respond to oil demand and supply shocks?," FEMM Working Papers 110028, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.

  18. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Assessing Monetary Policy Effects Using Daily Fed Funds Futures Contracts," NBER Working Papers 13569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  19. James D. Hamilton, 2007. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," NBER Working Papers 13112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. José Gonzalo Rangel, 2009. "Macroeconomic News, Announcements, and Stock Market Jump Intensity Dynamics," Working Papers 2009-15, Banco de México.
    2. Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.
    3. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
    4. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2013. "Bond returns and market expectations," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2014. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 9824, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "Geography or skills: what explains Fed Wachters' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Discussion Papers 2008/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Andrea Monticini & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def10, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    9. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Geography, skills or both: What explains Fed watchers' forecast accuracy of US monetary policy?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 420-437, September.
    11. Coffinet, J., 2008. "La prévision des taux d’intérêt à partir de contrats futures : l’apport de variables économiques et financières," Working papers 193, Banque de France.
    12. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2013. "Semiparametric estimates of monetary policy effects: string theory revisited," Working Paper Series 2013-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Ghent, Andra, 2007. "Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures," MPRA Paper 1708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.

  20. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's Real About the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 11161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on "what's real about the business cycle?"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 453-458.
    2. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," NIPE Working Papers 24/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    3. Éric Dubois, 2006. "Présentation générale," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 1-9.
    4. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    5. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    6. Julie L. Hotchkiss & John C. Robertson, 2006. "Asymmetric labor force participation decisions over the business cycle: evidence from U.S. microdata," Working Paper 2006-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, EconWPA.
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 49007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
    11. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stöber, Jakob & Czado, Claudia, 2014. "Regime switches in the dependence structure of multidimensional financial data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 672-686.
    13. Yetman, James, 2011. "Exporting recessions: International links and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 12-14, January.
    14. Thomas B. King, 2005. "Labor productivity and job-market flows: trends, cycles, and correlations," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-04, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  21. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 456/457, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
    3. Jörg Breitung & Sandra Eickmeier, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," CAMA Working Papers 2014-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2010. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 24721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
    7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2010. "Discordant city employment cycles," Working Papers 2010-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, 09.
    10. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2008. "Deutsche Konjunktur: leichte Rezession absehbar," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28638, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    11. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2010. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 34104, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
    12. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
    14. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
    15. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Frontiers of real-time data analysis," Working Papers 08-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Darné, Olivier & Ferrara, Laurent, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Diagne, Youssoupha S & Sène, Serigne Moustapha, 2009. "La profitabilité des secteurs de l’économie sénégalaise
      [Profitability of economic sectors in Senegal]
      ," MPRA Paper 54921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Papers 367, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
    20. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    21. Wh Boshoff, 2005. "The Properties Of Cycles In South African Financial Variables And Their Relation To The Business Cycle," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(4), pages 694-709, December.
    22. Brevik, Frode & d'Addona, Stefano, 2013. "Is Ignorance Bliss? The Cost Of Business-Cycle Uncertainty," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 728-746, June.
    23. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2011. "Forecasting recessions using stall speeds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Al-Anaswah, Nael & Wilfling, Bernd, 2011. "Identification of speculative bubbles using state-space models with Markov-switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1073-1086, May.
    25. Minakshy Iyer & Vibhuti Vora & Rohini Khuperkar, 2006. "An Index of Uncertainty for Business Cycle Leading Indicators," Working Papers id:751, eSocialSciences.
    26. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.
    29. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
    30. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
      [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]
      ," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
    32. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    33. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    34. Evangelia Papapetrou, 2013. "Oil prices and economic activity in Greece," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 385-397, November.
    35. Corradin, Stefano & Fontana, Alessandro, 2013. "House price cycles in Europe," Working Paper Series 1613, European Central Bank.
    36. Buss, Ginters, 2010. "A note on GDP now-/forecasting with dynamic versus static factor models along a business cycle," MPRA Paper 22147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," Cahiers de recherche 1341, CIRPEE.
    38. Troy Davig, 2008. "Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-33.
    39. Ernesto Pasten & Yang K. Lu, 2010. "Coordination of Expectations and the Informational Role of Policy," 2010 Meeting Papers 985, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola, 2008. "Multivariate Markov switching with weighted regime determination: giving France more weight than Finland," Working Papers 2008-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    41. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of recession in real time using GDP and GDI," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Heij, C., 2007. "Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

  22. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2004. "Normalization in econometrics," Working Paper 2004-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C.M. & Rombouts, J.V.K., 2007. "Multivariate mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3551-3566, April.
    2. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2010. "Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models," CREATES Research Papers 2010-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note," Working Paper 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 10764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 329-347, June.
    7. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/31, European University Institute.
    8. George Monokroussos, 2005. "Dynamic Limited Dependent Variable Modeling and US Monetary Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 460, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 69, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    12. Christopher A. Sims & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Working Paper 2006-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft, 2009. "Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models," Cahiers de recherche 0926, CIRPEE.
    14. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2012. "Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 17791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    16. Markku Lanne, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Macroeconomics 0405014, EconWPA.
    17. Liu, Xiaochun, 2013. "Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression," MPRA Paper 55800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Comparison of Alternative Asymptotic Frameworks to Analyze a Structural Change in a Linear Time Trend," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    19. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Peter M. Summers & Penelope A. Smith, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274.
    21. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F.Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference," Working Paper 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    22. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "An Alternative Trend-Cycle Decomposition using a State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-44, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    23. John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2008. "On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    24. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    25. B. D. McCullough & H. D. Vinod, 2004. "Verifying the Solution from a Nonlinear Solver: A Case Study: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 400-406, March.
    26. Penelope A. Smith & Peter M. Summers, 2004. "Identification and normalization in Markov switching models of "business cycles"," Research Working Paper RWP 04-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    27. Kaufmann Sylvia, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
    28. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

  23. Michael C. Davis & James D. Hamilton, 2003. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," NBER Working Papers 9741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Erwan Gautier, 2009. "Les ajustements microéconomiques des prix : une synthèse des modèles théoriques et résultats empiriques," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 0(3), pages 323-372.
    2. Carl R. Gwin & David D. Van Hoose, 2008. "Disaggregate Evidence On Price Stickiness And Implications For Macro Models," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 561-575, October.
    3. Carlsson, Mikael & Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2011. "Evaluating microfoundations for aggregate price rigidities: evidence from matched firm-level data on product prices and unit labor cost," Working Paper Series 2011:8, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. L. Bettendorf & S. A. van der Geest & G. H. Kuper, 2009. "Do daily retail gasoline prices adjust asymmetrically?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 385-397.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Matteo Manera & Margherita Grasso, 2005. "Asymmetric Error Correction Models for the Oil-Gasoline Price Relationship," Working Papers 2005.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Chen, Haipeng (Allan) & Levy, Daniel & Ray, Sourav & Bergen, Mark, 2008. "Asymmetric price adjustment in the small," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 728-737, May.
    8. Daniel Levy & Dongwon Lee & Haipeng (Allan) Chen & Robert J. Kauffman & Mark Bergen, 2011. "Price Points and Price Rigidity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1417-1431, November.
    9. Nuno Alves, 2004. "A Flexible View on Prices," Working Papers w200406, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2013. "Do petrol prices rise faster than they fall when the market shows significant disequilibria?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 66-80.
    11. Nakamura, Emi & Zerom, Dawit, 2008. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 14389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Emmanuel Dhyne & Catherine Fuss & M. Hashem Pesaran & Patrick Sevestre, 2007. "Lumpy Price Adjustments: A Microeconometric Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2010, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Takayuki Mizuno & Makoto Nirei & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2010. "Closely Competing Firms and Price Adjustment: Some Findings from an Online Marketplace," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 112(4), pages 673-696, December.
    14. Claire Loupias & Patrick Sevestre, 2010. "Cost, Demand and Producer Price Changes," Documents de recherche 10-06, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    15. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2012. "Testing for price response asymmetries in the Spanish fuel market. New evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2066-2071.
    16. Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2004. ""The Real Thing:" Nominal Price Rigidity of the Nickel Coke, 1886-1959," Working Papers 2004-2, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    17. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2005. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 11043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Alexander L. Wolman, 2000. "The frequency and costs of individual price adjustments," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-22.
    20. Jose de Gregorio & Oscar Landerretche & Christopher Neilson, 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    21. Christopher Douglas & Ana Mar�a Herrera, 2010. "Why are gasoline prices sticky? A test of alternative models of price adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 903-928.
    22. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.
    23. Li, Shanjun & Linn, Joshua & Muehlegger, Erich, 2012. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," Working Paper Series rwp12-006, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    24. Arto Kovanen, 2006. "Why Do Prices in Sierra Leone Change so often? A+L3180 Case Study Using Micro-Level Price Data," IMF Working Papers 06/53, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Erich J. Muehlegger, 2004. "Gasoline Price Spikes and Regional Gasoline Content Regulations - A Structural Approach," Working Papers 0421, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    26. Douglas D. Davis & Oleg Korenok, 2009. "Posted Offer Markets In Near-Continuous Time: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 449-466, 07.
    27. Michael C. Davis, 2007. "The dynamics of daily retail gasoline prices," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 713-722.
    28. Douglas, Christopher C. & Herrera, Ana María, 2014. "Dynamic pricing and asymmetries in retail gasoline markets: What can they tell us about price stickiness?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 247-252.
    29. Shanjun Li & Christopher Timmins & Roger H. von Haefen, 2009. "How Do Gasoline Prices Affect Fleet Fuel Economy?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 113-37, August.
    30. Jordi Perdiguero-García, 2010. "“Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A metaanalysis approach”," IREA Working Papers 201013, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    31. Andrew T. Young & Alexander K. Blue, 2007. "Retail prices during a change in monetary regimes: evidence from Sears, Roebuck catalogs, 1938-1951," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 763-775.
    32. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. James Yetman, 2007. "Explaining hump-shaped inflation responses to monetary policy shocks," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 605-617.
    34. Liu, Ming-Hua & Margaritis, Dimitris & Tourani-Rad, Alireza, 2010. "Is there an asymmetry in the response of diesel and petrol prices to crude oil price changes? Evidence from New Zealand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 926-932, July.
    35. Sara Ellison & Christopher M. Snyder, 2014. "An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High-Frequency Price Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 4655, CESifo Group Munich.
    36. Craigwell, Roland & Moore, Winston & Worrell, DeLisle, 2011. "Does Consumer Price Rigidity Exist in Barbados?," MPRA Paper 40928, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Gautier, E. & Le Saout, R., 2012. "The Dynamics of Gasoline Prices: Evidence from Daily French Micro Data," Working papers 375, Banque de France.
    38. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Bergland, Olvar, 2012. "Pass-through of wholesale price to the end user retail price in the Norwegian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2003-2012.
    39. Peneva, Ekaterina, 2011. "Some evidence on factor intensity and price rigidity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1652-1658, October.
    40. Li, Shanjun & Linn, joshua & Muehlegger, Erich J., 2012. "Gasoline Taxes and Consumer Behavior," Scholarly Articles 8506866, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    41. Ekaterina V. Peneva, 2009. "Factor intensity and price rigidity: evidence and theory," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 45-69, January-J.
    43. Grammig, Joachim & Kehrle, Kerstin, 2008. "A new marked point process model for the federal funds rate target: Methodology and forecast evaluation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2370-2396, July.

  24. Herrera, Ana Maria & Hamilton, James D., 2001. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4qp0p0v5, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey, 2002. "International Shocks and the Role of Domestic Policy in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(2), pages 143-163, June.
    2. Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane M. & Schmidt, Vincent A., 2012. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
    3. Virjinia Jeliazkova, 2010. "Effects of the Dynamics of the Oil Price – Theoretical and Empirical Bases," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 127-165.
    4. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, 03.
    5. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Casassus, Jaime & Ceballos, Diego & Higuera, Freddy, 2010. "Correlation structure between inflation and oil futures returns: An equilibrium approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 301-310, December.
    7. Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 35713, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
    8. Hernandez Martinez, Fernando, 2009. "Efectos del incremento del precio del petróleo en la economía española: Análisis de cointegración y de la política monetaria mediante reglas de Taylor
      [Oil price shocks and the spanish econom
      ," MPRA Paper 18056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    10. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009.
    11. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    13. Yang, Lucun, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/10, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    14. Mandal, Kumarjit & Bhattacharyya, Indranil & Bhoi, Binod B., 2012. "Is the oil price pass-through in India any different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 832-848.

  25. James D. Hamilton & Dong Heon Kim, 2000. "A Re-examination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," NBER Working Papers 7954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence 1875-1997," NBER Working Papers 10431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Dong Heon Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0528, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    9. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    10. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    11. Michael Feroli, 2004. "Monetary policy and the information content of the yield spread," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Smit, L.V., 2008. "Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0807, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    15. Edward E. Leamer, 2001. "The Life Cycle of US Economic Expansions," NBER Working Papers 8192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the curvature factor of the term structure of interest rates," MPRA Paper 11597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006. "An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," MPRA Paper 1072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "The predictive content of financial variables: Evidence from the euro area," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp178, IIIS.
    19. Zhou, Yinggang, 2014. "Modeling the joint dynamics of risk-neutral stock index and bond yield volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 216-228.
    20. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    21. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
    22. Nneji, Ogonna & Brooks, Chris & Ward, Charles W.R., 2013. "House price dynamics and their reaction to macroeconomic changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 172-178.
    23. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.
    24. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us about Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers 292010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    25. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2010. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers e07-19, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    26. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
    27. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
    28. Gogas, Periklis & Chionis, Dionisios & Pragkidis, Ioannis, 2009. "Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity," MPRA Paper 13911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Damián Romero & Luis Ceballos, 2014. "The Yield Curve Information Under Unconventional Monetary Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 732, Central Bank of Chile.
    30. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, . "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    31. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
    32. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    33. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    34. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska & Ulf Soderstrom, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and a Structural Interpretation," Working Papers 280, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    36. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
    37. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    38. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund.
    39. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    40. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    41. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
    43. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA.
    44. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    45. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2013. "Bond Spreads and Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 2013/09, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    46. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
    47. Leo Krippner, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Foundation for the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Research Paper Series 226, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    48. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    49. Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
    50. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    51. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
    52. Won-Gi Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2012. "Leading Behavior of Interest Rate Term Spreads and Credit Risk Spreads in Korea," Working Papers 1203, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    53. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    54. Rolando Pelàez, 2007. "Ex ante forecasts of business-cycle turning points," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 239-246, April.
    55. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    56. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, Joao, 2006. "Credit in the euro area: An empirical investigation using aggregate data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 211-226, May.
    57. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
    58. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    59. Abbassi, Puriya & Linzert, Tobias, 2012. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 945-954.
    60. Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    61. Calza, Alessandro, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and global output gaps: Evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 0890, European Central Bank.
    62. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
    63. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
    64. Laurent Clerc & Françoise Drumetz & François Haas, 2002. "The influence of structural changes on market functioning and its implications for monetary policy: a focus on the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 43-64 Bank for International Settlements.
    65. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    66. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
    67. Leo Krippner, 2005. "A New Framework for Yield Curve, Output and Inflation Relationships," Working Papers in Economics 05/07, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
    68. Michael T. Kiley, 2012. "The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    69. Malik, Farooq & Nasereddin, Mahdi, 2006. "Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 168-180.
    70. Rodrigo Alfaro & Damián Romero, 2013. "A Note on Yield Spread and Output Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 700, Central Bank of Chile.
    71. Zaghini, Andrea & Bencivelli, Lorenzo, 2012. "Financial innovation, macroeconomic volatility and the great moderation," MPRA Paper 41263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    72. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
    73. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
    74. Ralf Becker & Adam Clements, 2007. "Forecasting stock market volatility conditional on macroeconomic conditions," NCER Working Paper Series 18, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    75. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    76. Rendu de Lint, Christel & Stolin, David, 2003. "The predictive power of the yield curve: a theoretical assessment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1603-1622, October.
    77. Abdullah Al-Hassan, 2009. "A Coincident Indicator of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 09/73, International Monetary Fund.

  26. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Maniloff, 2013. "Ethanol and Energy Security," Working Papers 2013-10, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
    3. Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    5. Tao Wu & Michele Cavallo, 2012. "Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information," IMF Working Papers 12/19, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 595-614, October.
    8. Skriner, Edith, 2007. "Forecasting Global Flows," Economics Series 214, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Benoît Mojon, 2008. "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission?," NBER Working Papers 14190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2009. "Do Oil Prices Matter? The Case of a Small Open Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 65-87, May.
    11. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    12. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    13. Emami, Karim & Adibpour, Mehdi, 2012. "Oil income shocks and economic growth in Iran," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1774-1779.
    14. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    15. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "What explains the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," NIPE Working Papers 04/2014, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
    17. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011," MPRA Paper 48900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Elyasiani, Elyas & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2011. "Oil price shocks and industry stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 966-974, September.
    19. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    20. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Mood-misattribution effect on energy markets: a biorhythm approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-24, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    21. Alomar, Ibrahim, 2006. "النمو الاقتصادي العالمي وأثره في اقتصاديات النفط خلال الفترة 1980-2005
      [World Economic Growth and its Effect on Economic of Energy during 1980-20
      ," MPRA Paper 18979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Gazi Salah Uddin & Ilhan Ozturk & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "The time scale behavior of oil-stock relationships: what we learn from the ASEAN-5 countries," Working Papers 2014-441, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    23. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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    1. D. Bond & M.J. Harrision & E.J. O, Brien, 2005. "Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Estimation of Hamilton’s Random Field Regression Model," Trinity Economics Papers 200054, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    2. Lu, Xun & White, Halbert, 2014. "Robustness checks and robustness tests in applied economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 194-206.
    3. D. Bond & M. Harrison & E.J. O'Brien, 2003. "Investigating Nonlinearity: A Note on the Implementation of Hamilton's Methodology," Trinity Economics Papers 200312, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    4. Burcu Kıran, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Fractional Integration in the US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(3), pages 325-334, June.
    5. Benjamin N. Dennis & Talan Iscan, 2007. "Agricultural Distortions, Structural Change, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive distort35, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
    6. Gary Koop & Simon Potter, 2010. "A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear and time varying time series models," Post-Print peer-00732535, HAL.
    7. Dong Heon Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 440, Econometric Society.
    8. Bond, Derek & Harrison, Michael J & O’Brien, Edward J., 2006. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    10. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    11. Jie He & Patrick Richard, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada," Cahiers de recherche 09-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke.
    12. Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
    13. Derek Bond & Michael Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward O'Brien, 2010. "Nonlinearity as an explanation of the forward exchange rate anomaly," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1237-1239.
    14. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity: The Irish Experience Re-visited," Trinity Economics Papers tep200615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    15. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Testing The Opportunistic Approach To Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(2), pages 110-125, 03.
    17. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua & Xie, Zixiong, 2008. "Evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of the four little dragons," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 363-376.
    18. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy of Nigeria: A Non-linear Approach," MPRA Paper 18726, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2009.
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    23. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Asymmetric Dependence in US Financial Risk Factors?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/2, University of Stavanger.
    24. Abbassi, Abdessalem & Tamini, Lota D. & Gervais, Jean-Philippe, 2011. "Do inventories have an impact on price transmission? Evidence from the Canadian chicken industry," MPRA Paper 30868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Yoon-Jin Lee & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Specification Testing for Multivariate Time Series Volatility Models," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 696, Econometric Society.
    26. Ruthira Naraidoo & Kasai Ndahiriwe, 2010. "Financial asset prices, linear and nonlinear policy rules. An In-sample assessment of the reaction function of the South African Reserve Bank," Working Papers 201006, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    27. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2007. "Demand for Money: A Study in Testing Time Series for Long Memory and Nonlinearity," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 1-24.
    28. Somayeh Mardaneh, 2012. "How Do Oil Shocks A¤ect the Structural Stability of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Discussion Papers in Economics 12/20, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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    31. Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue & Olivier Bonroy, 2004. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Trade," International Trade 0407004, EconWPA.
    32. Derek Bond & Kenneth Dyson, 2008. "Long memory and nonlinearity in stock markets," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 45-48.
    33. Oscar Jorda, 2003. "Model-Free Impulse Responses," Working Papers 38, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    34. René Lalonde & Nicolas Parent, 2006. "The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States," Working Papers 06-11, Bank of Canada.
    35. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
    36. Huang, Ho-Chuan, 2005. "Diverging evidence of convergence hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 233-255, June.
    37. Douglas James Hodgson, 2009. "A Test for the Presence of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market With an Application to the Bank of Canada," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-14, CIRANO.
    38. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen & Chih-Chiang Hsu, 2004. "Structural Break or Asymmetry? An Empirical Study of the Stock Wealth Effect on Consumption," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 690, Econometric Society.
    39. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
    40. Malik, Farooq & Nasereddin, Mahdi, 2006. "Forecasting output using oil prices: A cascaded artificial neural network approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 168-180.
    41. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    42. Nikolay Markov & Carlos de Porres, 2011. "Is the Taylor Rule Nonlinear? Empirical Evidence from a Semi-Parametric Modeling Approach," Research Papers by the Institute of Economics and Econometrics, Geneva School of Economics and Management, University of Geneva 11052, Institut d'Economie et Econométrie, Université de Genève.
    43. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
    44. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    45. Chihwa Kao & Yongmiao Hong, 2004. "Detecting Neglected Nonlinearity in Dynamic Panel Data with Time-Varying Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 753, Econometric Society.
    46. Olivier Bonroy & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Bruno Larue, 2005. "Investigating Non-Linearities in the Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Finance 0501003, EconWPA.
    47. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    48. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Niall Hession & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Some Empirical Observations on the Forward Exchange Rate Anomaly," Trinity Economics Papers tep2006, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    49. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2013. "The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 271-282.
    50. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    51. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July.
    52. Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2148-2156.
    53. Dong Kim, 2012. "What is an oil shock? Panel data evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 121-143, August.
    54. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-Chiang Lee & Shyh-Wei Chen & Zixiong Xie, 2011. "Roles played by financial development in economic growth: application of the flexible regression model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 103-125, August.
    55. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
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    60. McPherson, Matthew Q. & Palardy, Joseph, 2007. "Are international stock returns predictable?: An examination of linear and non-linear predictability using generalized spectral tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 452-464, December.
    61. O'Brien, Edward J., 2008. "A note on spurious nonlinear regression," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 366-368, September.
    62. Huang, Ho-Chuan River, 2004. "A flexible nonlinear inference to the Kuznets hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 289-296, August.
    63. Hayat, Aziz & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Federal reserve monetary policy and the non-linearity of the Taylor rule," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1292-1301, September.
    64. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2009. "Exploring Long Memory and Nonlinearity in Irish Real Exchange Rates using Tests based on Semiparametric Estimation," Working Papers 200901, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.

  28. James D. Hamilton, 1996. "Measuring the liquidity effect," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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    1. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2009. "Money and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0906, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Fumio Hayashi, 2000. "Is There a Liquidity Effect in the Japanese Market?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1898, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Cooley, Thomas F. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 1999. "A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 165-193, October.
    4. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, . "Optimal Allotment Policy in Central Bank Open Market Operations," IEW - Working Papers 201, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Daniel L. Thornton, 2000. "The relationship between the federal funds rate and the Fed's federal funds rate target: is it open market or open mouth operations?," Working Papers 1999-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Selva Demiralp & Oscar Jorda, . "The Announcement Effect: Evidence from Open Market Desk Data," Department of Economics 01-04, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    7. Chen, Show-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2004. "A revisit to liquidity effects--evidence from a non-linear approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 501-517, September.
    8. Ariff, Mohamed & Chung, Tin-fah & M., Shamsher, 2012. "Money supply, interest rate, liquidity and share prices: A test of their linkage," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 202-220.
    9. William Barnett & Logan Kelly & John Keating, 2010. "Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201002, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    10. Elder, John, 2001. "Can the Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate Explain the Time-Varying Risk Premium in Treasury Bill Returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 73-97, January.
    11. Leao, Emanuel R. & Leao, Pedro R., 2007. "Modelling the central bank repo rate in a dynamic general equilibrium framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 571-610, July.
    12. Daniel L. Thornton, 1998. "The Federal Reserve's operating procedure, nonborrowed reserves, borrowed reserves and the liquidity effect," Working Papers 1998-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Assessing money supply rules," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 15, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    14. Herve Alexandre & Benoist Antonin De, 2010. "Oil prices and government bond risk premiums," Working Papers halshs-00642191, HAL.
    15. Instefjord, Norvald, 1999. "A simple model of market liquidity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 329-337, September.
    16. William Whitesell, 2006. "Monetary policy implementation without averaging or rate corridors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Ewerhart, Christian & Cassola, Nuno & Ejerskov, Steen & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Optimal allotment policy in the Eurosystem's main refinancing operations," Working Paper Series 0295, European Central Bank.
    18. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Open Market Operations," MPRA Paper 704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Nenovsky, Nikolay & Hristov, Kalin, 2002. "The new currency boards and discretion: empirical evidence from Bulgaria," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-72, April.
    20. Leonardo Bartolini & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy execution and money market rates' volatility," Staff Reports 175, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Palombini, Edgardo, 2003. "Volatility and liquidity in the Italian money market," MPRA Paper 42699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ewerhart, Christian, 2002. "A model of the Eurosystem's operational framework for monetary policy implementation," Working Paper Series 0197, European Central Bank.
    23. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
    24. Daniel L. Thornton, 2008. "Monetary policy: why money matters and interest rates don't," Working Papers 2008-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    25. Livio Stracca & Clara Martin Moss & Livio Stracca, 2004. "Demand and supply in the ECB's main refinancing operations," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 94, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    26. Daniel L. Thornton, 2006. "The daily liquidity effect," Working Papers 2006-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    27. Stracca, Livio & Ejerskov, Steen & Martin Moss, Clara, 2003. "How does the ECB allot liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look at the empirical evidence," Working Paper Series 0244, European Central Bank.
    28. Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Operational outages and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2386-2402, October.
    29. Daniel L. Thornton, 2003. "Forecasting the Treasury's balance at the Fed," Working Papers 2001-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    30. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 996, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    31. Seth Carpenter & Selva Demiralp, 2004. "The liquidity effect in the federal funds market: evidence from daily open market operations," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-61, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Vladimir Kotomin & Drew Winters, 2006. "Quarter-End Effects in Banks: Preferred Habitat or Window Dressing?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 61-82, February.
    33. Kopchak, Seth J., 2011. "The liquidity effect for open market operations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3292-3299.
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  31. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, . "A model for the federal funds rate target," Department of Economics 99-07, California Davis - Department of Economics.

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    26. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0229, Banco de Espa�a.
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    33. Eichler Michael & Grothe Oliver & Tuerk Dennis & Manner Hans, 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
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    35. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in the US Federal Funds Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1255, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    36. Marlene Amstad & Andreas Fischer, 2005. "Shock Identification of Macroeconomic Forecasts based on Daily Panels," Working Papers 05.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    37. Oscar Jorda & Kevin Salyer, . "The Response of Term Rates to Monetary Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics 01-06, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    38. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
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    40. Liao, Yin, 2013. "The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction: Evidence from Chinese mainland stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 25-48.
    41. Oscar Jorda & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "The Pavlovian Response of Term Rates to Fed Announcements," Working Papers 996, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    42. "Belderbos, Rene & Ikeuchi, Kenta & Fukao, Kyoji & Kim, Young Gak & Kwon, Hyeog Ug, 2013. "Plant Productivity Dynamics and Private and Public R&D Spillovers: Technological, Geographic and Relational Proximity," CEI Working Paper Series 2013-05, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    44. Demiralp, Selva & Kara, Hakan & Özlü, Pınar, 2012. "Monetary policy communication in Turkey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 540-556.
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    46. Ellen E. Meade, 2005. "The FOMC: preferences, voting, and consensus," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 93-101.
    47. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee & Santosh Mishra, 2008. "Jumps in cross-sectional rank and expected returns: a mixture model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 585-606.
    48. Nautz, Dieter & Schmidt, Sandra, 2008. "Monetary Policy Implementation and the Federal Funds Rate," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-025, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    49. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    50. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Xin Huang, 2007. "A Reduced Form Framework for Modeling Volatility of Speculative Prices based on Realized Variation Measures," CREATES Research Papers 2007-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    51. Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Estimating the Policy Rule from Money Market Rates when Target Rate Changes Are Lumpy," Working Papers 12-41, Bank of Canada.
    52. Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2013. "New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1924, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    54. Liu, Chun & Maheu, John M., 2012. "Intraday dynamics of volatility and duration: Evidence from Chinese stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 329-348.
    55. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Completion time structures of stock price movements," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 293-326, 08.
    56. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
    57. Lacker, Jeffrey M., 2004. "Payment system disruptions and the federal reserve following September 11, 2001," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 935-965, July.
    58. Douglas, Christopher C. & Kolar, Marek, 2009. "Capturing the time dynamics of central bank intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 950-968, December.
    59. Dolado, Juan J & Maria-Dolores, Ramon, 2002. " Evaluating Changes in the Bank of Spain's Interest Rate Target: An Alternative Approach Using Marked Point Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 159-82, May.
    60. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    61. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2011. "The reaction of stock returns to unexpected increases in the federal funds rate target," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 121-138, March.
    62. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "The Euro bloc, the Dollar bloc and the Yen bloc: how much monetary policy independence can exchange rate flexibility buy in an interdependent world?," Working Paper Series 0154, European Central Bank.
    63. Aric Shafran, 2011. "Self-protection against repeated low probability risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 263-285, June.
    64. Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," Working Papers 0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    65. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
    66. Michael J. Dueker & Robert H. Rasche, 2004. "Discrete policy changes and empirical models of the federal funds rate," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 61-72.
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Articles

  1. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Import Prices and Inflation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 271-279, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," Working Papers 13-52, Bank of Canada.

  2. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 3-46, 02.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott Borger, 2011. "Estimating the Market-Perceived Monetary Policy Rule," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Daily Changes in Fed Funds Futures Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 567-582, 06.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 9768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
    3. Ghent, Andra C. & Owyang, Michael T., 2010. "Is housing the business cycle? Evidence from US cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 336-351, May.
    4. Di Maggio, Marco, 2010. "The Political Economy of the Yield Curve," MPRA Paper 20697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
    6. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    7. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2014. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. James D. Hamilton & Seth Pruitt & Scott C. Borger, 2009. "The market-perceived monetary policy rule," International Finance Discussion Papers 982, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  10. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 377-394.

    Cited by:

    1. Hamilton, James D., 2008. "Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1171-1190, October.
    2. Lapp, John S. & Pearce, Douglas K., 2012. "The impact of economic news on expected changes in monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-379.

  11. James D. Hamilton & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Normalization in Econometrics," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 221-252.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's real about the business cycle?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 435-452.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Hamilton James D., 2005. "Comment on "Investigating Nonlinearity"," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Peter Winker & Dietmar Maringer, 2009. "The convergence of estimators based on heuristics: theory and application to a GARCH model," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 533-550, August.

  14. Davis, Michael C & Hamilton, James D, 2004. "Why Are Prices Sticky? The Dynamics of Wholesale Gasoline Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 17-37, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    2. Peng-fei Wang & Yi Wen, 2005. "Another look at sticky prices and output persistence," Working Papers 2005-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Johann Scharler, 2006. "Do Bank-Based Financial Systems Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility by Smoothing Interest Rates?," Working Papers 117, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Jean Pierre Allegret & Mohamed Tahar Benkhodja, 2011. "External Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-39, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
    6. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2011. "Energy consumption at business cycle horizons: The case of the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 161-167, March.
    9. Arora, Vipin & Tanner, Matthew, 2013. "Do oil prices respond to real interest rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 546-555.
    10. Noureddine Krichene, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/133, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2002-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Assessing the impact of oil prices on firms of different sizes: Its tough being in the middle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3854-3861, October.
    13. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    14. Munechika Katayama, . "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    15. Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "Monetary policy response to oil price shocks," Working Paper Series 2009-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 13467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Alom, Fardous, 2011. "Economic Effects of Oil and Food Price Shocks in Asia and Pacific Countries: An Application of SVAR Model," 2011 Conference, August 25-26, 2011, Nelson, New Zealand 115346, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjoernland, 2013. "What drives oil prices? Emerging versus developed economies," CAMA Working Papers 2013-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    20. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," MPRA Paper 49007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2012. "Speculation in the oil market," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    22. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2010. "The asymmetric effects of oil price and monetary policy shocks: A nonlinear VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1460-1466, November.
    23. Rentschler, Jun E., 2013. "Oil price volatility, economic growth and the hedging role of renewable energy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6603, The World Bank.
    24. Österholm, Pär, 2006. "Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts," Working Paper Series 2006:30, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    25. Volker Clausen & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Cyclical Dynamics in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Ruhr Economic Papers 0247, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    26. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    27. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    28. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.
    29. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2006. "Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1945-1958, October.
    30. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    31. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    32. Benjamin Wong, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and The Role of Oil Shocks: How Different Were the 1970s?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    33. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
    34. Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2006. "Energy and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Consumer Durables," 2006 Meeting Papers 719, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2014. "Wavelet-based evidence of the impact of oil prices on stock returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 145-176.
    36. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil Futures Returns and Oil Company Stocks Return," CARF F-Series CARF-F-157, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    37. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2012. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 12-2, Bank of Canada.
    38. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0731, Banco de Espa�a.
    39. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions," NBER Working Papers 9063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Hsu, Kai-Wei, 2012. "Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?," MPRA Paper 36182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    42. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    43. Fan, Qinbin & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R., 2012. "U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 112-128.
    44. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    45. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," Working Papers 478, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    46. Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2011. "Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8062-8069.
    47. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2008. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Working Papers 14563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    48. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    49. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation premium and oil price volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19750, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    50. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
    51. Matthias Gubler & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2011. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the U.S," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-03, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    52. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
    53. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    54. Jin, Hyun Joung & Miljkovic, Dragan, 2005. "Analysis of Multiple Structural Breaks in Relative Farm Prices in the United States, 1913-2003," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19118, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    55. Nicoletta Batini & Eugen Tereanu, 2009. "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?," IMF Working Papers 09/101, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Peng, Hsiao-Ping, 2005. "The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: An application of the multivariate threshold model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-476, May.
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    61. Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Onorante, Luca, 2010. "Food price pass-through in the euro area The role of asymmetries and non-linearities," Working Paper Series 1168, European Central Bank.
    62. Rigoberto Ariel Yépez-Garcia & Julie Dana, 2012. "Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices : Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 9341, February.
    63. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rateson the Economy," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Bhattacharya, Jyotirmoy, 2008. "Oil Shocks: How Destabilizing are they?," MPRA Paper 12116, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    65. Roengchai Tansuchat & Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns," Working Papers in Economics 10/04, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    66. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
    67. Lippi, Francesco & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    68. Pedro Silos & Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2008. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," 2008 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    69. Awerbuch, Shimon & Sauter, Raphael, 2006. "Exploiting the oil-GDP effect to support renewables deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2805-2819, November.
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    72. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "The role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 834.10, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
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    97. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2010. "The impact of monetary policy on oil process parameters and market expectations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 186-200.
    98. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith, 2004. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 781-808, May.
    99. Ratti, Ronald A. & Seol, Youn & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2011. "Relative energy price and investment by European firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 721-731, September.
    100. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Balli, Faruk & Osman, Mohamed, 2010. "On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors," MPRA Paper 38056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    101. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    102. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2002. "Oil Price Shock: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-32, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    103. Jürgen Janger & Karin Wagner, 2004. "Sectoral Specialization in Austria and in the EU-15," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 37–54.
    104. L'OEILLET, Guillaume & LICHERON, Julien, 2010. "The asymmetric relationship between oil prices and activity in the EMU: Does the ECB monetary policy play a role?," MPRA Paper 26203, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    105. Winkler, Roland C. & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006,19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    106. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
    107. L’œillet, Guillaume & Licheron, Julien, 2012. "How does the European Central Bank react to oil prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 445-447.
    108. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
    109. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Rong & Li, Sufang, 2014. "Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and Asia-Pacific stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 208-223.
    110. Bhanumurthy, N. R. & Das, Surajit & Bose, Sukanya, 2012. "Oil Price Shock, Pass-through Policy and its Impact on India," Working Papers 12/99, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    111. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    112. Bachmeier, Lance, 2008. "Monetary policy and the transmission of oil shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1738-1755, December.
    113. Francesca Rondina, 2010. "Policy Evaluation and Uncertainty About the Effects of Oil Prices on Economic Activity," Working Papers 522, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    114. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    115. Mary C. Daly & John G. Fernald & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2013. "Okun’s macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment," Working Paper Series 2013-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    116. Jochen H. F. Güntner, 2011. "How do international stock markets respond to oil demand and supply shocks?," FEMM Working Papers 110028, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    117. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
    118. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    119. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005. "Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    120. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
    121. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Thompson, Mark A., 2010. "Re-examining the dynamic causal oil-macroeconomy relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 298-305, September.
    122. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.
    123. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2009. "Identifying the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5417-5426, December.
    124. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund.
    125. Maravalle, Alessandro, 2010. "The role of the terms of trade in the trade channel of transmission of oil price shocks," DFAEII Working Papers 2010-12, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    126. Shekar Shetty & Zahid Iqbal & Mansour Alshamali, 2013. "Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Texas Cities," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 371-383, December.
    127. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
    128. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    129. Filippo Lechthaler & Lisa Leinert, 2012. "Moody Oil - What is Driving the Crude Oil Price?," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/168, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    130. Du, Limin & Yanan, He & Wei, Chu, 2010. "The relationship between oil price shocks and China's macro-economy: An empirical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4142-4151, August.
    131. Jamie Emerson, 2010. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: A Brief Update," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1411-1424.

  16. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "Comment on "A comparison of two business cycle dating methods"," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1691-1693, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
    2. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," Faculty Working Papers 08/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    4. Francis W. Ahking, 2013. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities," Working papers 2013-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & International Monetary Fund & Marco E. Terrones & International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Recessions and Financial Disruptions in Emerging Markets: A Bird’s Eye View," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 4, pages 059-104 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
    7. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    8. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2013. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-016-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    10. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.

  17. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  19. Hamilton, James D., 2002. "On the interpretation of cointegration in the linear-quadratic inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(12), pages 2037-2049, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    2. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2013. "Inventory Behavior with Permanent Sales Shocks," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2013-03, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    3. Hualde, Javier, 2014. "Estimation of long-run parameters in unbalanced cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 761-778.
    4. Liu, Wen-Hsien & Chung, Ching-Fan & Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2013. "Inventory change, capacity utilization and the semiconductor industry cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-127.

  20. James D. Hamilton & Baldev Raj, 2002. "New directions in business cycle research and financial analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 149-162.

    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Altavilla & Luigi Luini & Patrizia Sbriglia, 2005. "Social Learning in Market Games," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 003, University of Siena.
    2. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & and Andre Lucas, 2014. "Time Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "What do we know about real exchange rate nonlinearities?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 457-474, October.
    4. Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
    5. Yukalov, V.I. & Sornette, D. & Yukalova, E.P., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamical model of regime switching between conventions and business cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 206-230, May.
    6. Beate Schirwitz, 2009. "A comprehensive German business cycle chronology," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 287-301, October.
    7. Chao-Chun Chen & Wen-Jen Tsay, 2007. "Estimating Markov-Switching ARMA Models with Extended Algorithms of Hamilton," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    8. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2008. "Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models in Price Transmission Analysis: Threshold Models vs. Markov-Switching Models," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44198, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2003. "Modelling Economic Time Series in the Presence of Variance Non-Stationarity: A Practical Approach," Working Papers 07, Bank of Greece.
    10. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    12. Chen, Chao-Chun & Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of Markov-switching processes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-89, April.
    13. Torsten Schmidt & Torge Middendorf, 2004. "Characterizing Movements of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," RWI Discussion Papers 0024, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.

  21. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  22. Hamilton, James D, 2001. "A Parametric Approach to Flexible Nonlinear Inference," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 537-73, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  23. James Hamilton, 2000. "Book review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 135-137.

    Cited by:

    1. David M. Brasington, . "School Choice and the Flight to Private Schools: To What Extent Are Public and Private Schools Substitutes?," Departmental Working Papers 2006-04, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.

  24. Hamilton, James D. & Monteagudo, Josefina, 1998. "The augmented Solow model and the productivity slowdown," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 495-509, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Ville Kaitila, 2005. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Economics Working Papers 031, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    2. Jean-Louis ARCAND & Béatrice D'HOMBRES, 2002. "Explaining the Negative Coefficient Associated with Human Capital in Augmented Solow Growth Regressions," Working Papers 200227, CERDI.
    3. smruti, Smruti Ranjan Behera, 2012. "Technology Spillover and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: An Analysis of Indian Manufacturing Industries," MPRA Paper 42178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    5. Smruti Ranjan Behera & Pami Dua & Bishwanath Goldar, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment And Technology Spillover---Evidence Across Indian Manufacturing Industries," Working papers 207, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. de la Fuente, Angel & Doménech, Rafael, 2000. "Human Capital In Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. ?gel de la Fuente, . "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    8. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi, 2006. "Nonlinear Growth and the Productivity Slowdown," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_012, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    9. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Javier Alonso Meseguer, . "Estimación de una función de producción MRW para la Economía Española, 1910-1995," Studies on the Spanish Economy 197, FEDEA.
    10. de la Fuente, Angel & Doménech, Rafael, 2002. "Human Capital in Growth Regressions: How Much Difference Does Data Quality Make? An Update and Further Results," CEPR Discussion Papers 3587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Dr. (elect.) Julia Korosteleva & Dr. Colin Lawson, . "The Belarusian Case of Transition: Whither Financial Repression?," Working Papers 2006_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "Externalities of investment and endogenous growth: theory and time series evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 295-310, September.
    13. Greiner, Alfred & Semmler, Willi, 2002. "Externalities of investment, education and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 709-724, November.
    14. Francisco Nadal-De Simone & Luc Everaert, 2003. "Capital Operating Time and total Factor Productivity Growth in France," IMF Working Papers 03/128, International Monetary Fund.
    15. C�cile Denis & Daniel Grenouilleau & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2006. "Calculating potential growth rates and output gaps - A revised production function approach," European Economy - Economic Papers 247, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Capolupo, Rosa, 2008. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-27, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    17. Mason, Geoff & O'Leary, Brigid & Vecchi, Michela, 2012. "Certified and uncertified skills and productivity growth performance: Cross-country evidence at industry level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 351-360.
    18. Neri, F., 2001. "Schooling Quality and Economic Growth," Economics Working Papers wp01-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Shiau, Allen & Kilpatrick, James & Matthews, Miriam, 2002. "Seven percent growth for Mexico?: A quantitative assessment of Mexico's investment requirements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 781-798, November.
    20. Adele Bergin & Ide Kearney, 2004. "Human Capital, The Labour Market and Productivity Growth in Ireland," Papers WP158, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Noh-Sun Kwark & Yong-Sang Shyn, 2006. "International R&D spillovers revisited: Human capital as an absorptive capacity for foreign technology," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 179-196.
    22. Rosa Capolupo, 2005. "THE NEW GROWTH THEORIES AND THEIR EMPIRICS, Discussion Paper in Economics, University of Glasgow, N. 2005-04 (http://www.gla.ac.uk/Acad/Economics," GE, Growth, Math methods 0506003, EconWPA.
    23. C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 176, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    24. K. Renuka Ganegodage & Kiyoshi Taniguchi & Xiaojun Wang, 2003. "Learning by Eating: A case study on the cost of hunger in Sri Lanka," Working Papers 03-05, Agricultural and Development Economics Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO - ESA).
    25. Rosa Capolupo, . "The New Growth Theoris and their Empirics," Working Papers 2005_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    26. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Roeger, 2001. "Potential Output: Measurement Methods, "New" Economy Influences and Scenarios for 2001-2010 - A comparison of the EU-15 and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 150, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    27. Kaitila, Ville, 2006. "Productivity, Hours Worked, and Tax/Benefit Systems in Europe and Beyond," Discussion Papers 1015, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

  25. Hamilton, James D., 1998. "The supply and demand for Federal Reserve deposits," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-44, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: Evidence from high frequency data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 513-528.
    2. Lucio Sarno & Daniel Thornton & Yi Wen, 2002. "What's Unique About the Federal Funds Rate? Evidence from a Spectral Perspective," Working Papers wpn02-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    3. Uesugi, Iichiro, 2002. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect: The Case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 289-316, September.
    4. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "A study of U.S. monetary policy implementation: demand for reserves on a period average basis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Bindseil, Ulrich & Seitz, Franz, 2001. "The supply and demand for Eurosystem deposits - The first 18 months," Working Paper Series 0044, European Central Bank.
    6. Judson, Ruth A. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2010. "Whither the liquidity effect: The impact of Federal Reserve open market operations in recent years," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 713-731, September.
    7. Judson, Ruth A. & Klee, Elizabeth, 2011. "Big bank, small bank: Monetary policy implementation and banks' reserve management strategies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 306-328, July.
    8. Ruth Judson & Elizabeth Klee, 2009. "Whither the liquidity effect: the impact of Federal Reserve Open Market Operations in recent years," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  26. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Comment on "U.S. Oil Consumption, Oil Prices, and the Macroeconomy."," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-56.

    Cited by:

    1. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.

  27. Hamilton, James D, 1997. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 80-97, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Angelo Baglioni, 2009. "Liquidity crunch in the interbank market: is it credit or liquidity risk, or both?," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia e Finanza ief0091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Ricardo Lagos & Gara Afonson, 2011. "Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds," 2011 Meeting Papers 314, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Furfine, Craig, 2002. "The interbank market during a crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 809-820, May.
    4. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    5. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2012. "Nonlinear liquidity adjustments in the euro area overnight money market," Working Paper Series 1500, European Central Bank.
    6. Juan Ayuso & Rafael Repullo, 2001. "Why Did the Banks Overbid? An Empirical Model of the Fixed Rate Tenders of the European Central Bank," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0105, Banco de Espa�a.
    7. Andreas M. Fischer, 2000. "Do Interventions Smooth Interest Rates?," Working Papers 00.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    8. Silvia Gabrieli, 2010. "The functioning of the European interbank market during the 2007-08 financial crisis," CEIS Research Paper 158, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 28 May 2010.
    9. Carpenter, Seth & Demiralp, Selva, 2006. "The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 901-920, June.
    10. Uesugi, Iichiro, 2002. "Measuring the Liquidity Effect: The Case of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 289-316, September.
    11. Craig Furfine, 1998. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Emilio Barucci & Claudio Impenna & Roberto Reno, 2003. "The Italian Overnight Market: Microstructure Effects, the Martingale Hypothesis and the Payment System," CEIS Research Paper 24, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    13. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2009. "Asymmetric Standing Facilities: An Unexploited Monetary Policy Tool," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 795.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    14. Bindseil, Ulrich & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2004. "Bidding and Performance in Repo Auctions: Evidence from ECB Open Market Operations," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9878h0kn, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    15. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lee, Young-Sook, 2003. "The Federal funds market and the overnight Eurodollar market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 749-771, April.
    17. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2003. "The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: What Has Changed with the EMU?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 559.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    18. Manna, Michele, 2002. "Using money market rates to assess the alternatives of fixed vs. variable rate tenders: the lesson from 1989-1998 data for Germany," Working Paper Series 0186, European Central Bank.
    19. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The Microstructure of the Euro Money Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Furfine, Craig H., 2000. "Interbank payments and the daily federal funds rate," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 535-553, October.
    21. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2008. "Volatility transmission in the European money market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 23-39, March.
    22. Fecht, Falko & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Rocholl, Jörg, 2008. "The price of liquidity: bank characteristics and market conditions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,30, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    23. Bluhm, Marcel & Faia, Ester & Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2014. "Monetary policy implementation in an interbank network: Effects on systemic risk," SAFE Working Paper Series 46, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    24. Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Public disclosures and calendar-related movements in risk premiums: evidence from interbank lending," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 97-116, January.
    25. Thornton, Daniel L., 2004. "The Fed and short-term rates: Is it open market operations, open mouth operations or interest rate smoothing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 475-498, March.
    26. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    27. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2008. "The topology of the federal funds market," Working Paper Series 0986, European Central Bank.
    28. Ken B. Cyree & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2003. "On the pervasive effects of Federal Reserve settlement regulations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 27-46.
    29. Elizabeth Klee, 2007. "Operational problems and aggregate uncertainty in the federal funds market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Simpson, Paul W & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2001. "Forecasting UK Industrial Production over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(6), pages 405-24, September.
    2. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1998. "Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 4-20.
    3. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-154/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Nov 2011.
    4. Valentina Corradi & Andres Fernandez & Norman Swanson, 2008. "Information in the revision process of real-time datasets," Working Papers 08-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Paap, Richard & Segers, Rene & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Do Leading Indicators Lead Peaks More Than Troughs?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 528-543.
    6. Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 125-145, January-J.
    8. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," NBER Working Papers 9839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-63, October.
    11. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
    12. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    13. Annabelle Mourougane & Moreno Roma, 2003. "Can confidence indicators be useful to predict short term real GDP growth?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 519-522.
    14. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "This Is What The Leading Indicators Lead," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 132, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Koskinen, Lasse & Öller, Lars-Erik, 2001. "A Classifying Procedure for Signaling Turning Points," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 427, Stockholm School of Economics.
    16. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    17. Granger, Clive W. J. & Jeon, Yongil, 2003. "A time-distance criterion for evaluating forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 199-215.
    18. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2004. "A Reduced Rank Regression Approach to Coincident and Leading Indexes Building," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp04022, University of Molise, Dept. EGSeI.
    19. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1997. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Research Paper 9735, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 0052, European Central Bank.
    21. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20307, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    22. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: A multicountry regime-switching analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    23. Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Zied Ftiti, 2013. "Sudden Changes in Volatility in European Stock Markets," Working Papers 2013-032, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    24. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, 04.
    25. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481.
    26. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
    27. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
    28. Li, Yushu & Reese, Simon, 2014. "Wavelet improvement in turning point detection using a Hidden Markov Model," Discussion Papers 2014/10, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
    29. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
    30. Andres Fernandez & Norman R. Swanson, 2009. "Real-time datasets really do make a difference: definitional change, data release, and forecasting," Working Papers 09-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    31. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "A New Approach to Infer Changes in the Synchronization of Business Cycle Phases," MPRA Paper 54452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
    33. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
    34. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
    35. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
    36. Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2002. "GDP growth and the composite leading index: a nonlinear causality analysis for eleven countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 93-99, September.
    37. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
    38. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
    39. Giampiero M. Gallo & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Ex Post and Ex Ante Analysis of Provisional Data," Working Papers 141, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    40. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA.
    41. Heij, C., 2007. "Improved forecasting with leading indicators: the principal covariate index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    42. Layton, Allan P., 1998. "A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business cycle phase shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-70, March.

  31. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.

    Cited by:

    1. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Working Paper Series 0058, European Central Bank.
    2. Baele, Lieven, 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets: Evidence from a Regime Switching Model," EIFC - Technology and Finance Working Papers 33, United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies.
    3. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
    4. Bohl, Martin T. & Essid, Badye & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Do short selling restrictions destabilize stock markets? Lessons from Taiwan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 198-206.
    5. Renatas Kizys & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and International Financial Integration," Kiel Working Papers 1197, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    6. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Stock Returns and Expected Business Conditions: Half a Century of Direct Evidence," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 16 Sep 2005.
    8. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H-M., 1999. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisationand Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregression," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 522, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    9. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1999, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
    11. Beltratti, A. & Morana, C., 2006. "Breaks and persistency: macroeconomic causes of stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 151-177.
    12. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Teng, Kee Tuan, 2013. "Integration of world leaders and emerging powers into the Malaysian stock market: A DCC-MGARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 333-342.
    13. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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