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How Better Monetary Statistics Could Have Signaled the Financial Crisis

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  • William A. Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Marcelle Chauvet

    (University of California at Riverside)

Abstract

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 201005.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision: Aug 2010
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201005

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Keywords: Measurement error; monetary aggregation; Divisia index; aggregation; monetary policy; index number theory; financial crisis; great moderation; Federal Reserve.;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Alkhareif, Ryadh & Barnett, William A., 2012. "Divisia monetary aggregates for the GCC countries," MPRA Paper 39539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Paul, Sunil & Ramachandran, M., 2011. "Currency equivalent monetary aggregates as leading indicators of inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2041-2048, July.
  3. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Elvira Takli, 2013. "Comparison of simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates in GDP forecasting: a support vector machines approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1101-1115.
  4. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Kelly, Logan J. & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2011. "Rethinking the liquidity puzzle: Application of a new measure of the economic money stock," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 768-774, April.
  6. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2010. "The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 736, Boston College Department of Economics.
  7. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones, 2011. "A comprehensive revision of the U.S. monetary services (divisia) indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 325-360.
  8. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  9. William Barnett, 2010. "Audit the Federal Reserve?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201001, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2010.
  10. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. repec:clg:wpaper:2012-05 is not listed on IDEAS

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