This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
William Barnett (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)
Unja Chae (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)
John Keating (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We measure the United States capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with the present-value model of economic capital stock and asset pricing theory. The resulting measures differ substantially from the usual simple sum accounting monetary aggregates. We permit non-martingale expectations and time varying discount rates. Based on Barnett¡¯s (1991) definition of the economic stock of money, we compute the U.S. economic stock of money by discounting to present value the flow of expected expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. As a theoretically consistent measure of money stock, our economic stock of money nests Rotemberg, Driscoll, and Poterba¡¯s (1995) currency equivalent index as a special case, under the assumption of martingale expectations. To compute the economic stock of money without imposing martingale expectations, we use forecasts based on the asymmetric vector autoregressive model and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We find the resulting capital-stock growth-rate index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations. Accurate measurement of the economic capital stock of money is relevant to understanding the wealth effects and transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ku.edu/~bgju/2005Papers/200515.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 200515.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision: Aug 2005
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200515

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 415 Snow Hall, Lawrence, KS 66045
Phone: (785) 864-3501
Fax: (785) 864-5270
Email:
Web page: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ronald Caldwell).

Related research
Keywords: Monetary aggregation; Divisia money aggregate; economic stock of money; user cost of money; currency equivalent index; Bayesian vector autoregression; asymmetric vector; autoregression.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200516, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
  6. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
    Other versions:
  7. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2005. "On user costs of risky monetary assets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 35-50, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Currency Equivalent Index and the Current Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 7176, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. William Barnett, 2006. "Supply of Money," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200607, University of Kansas, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2008. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200804, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200516, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation?," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Stock of Money and Why You Should Care," MPRA Paper 11455, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W. & Kelly, Logan, 2007. "Toward a Bias Corrected Currency Equivalent Index," MPRA Paper 6008, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 2700 working paper series are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-4.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.