Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • William Barnett

    (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas)

  • Marcelle Chauvet

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Riverside)

  • Heather L. R. Tierney

    (School of Business and Economics, College of Charleston)

Abstract

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the inferences’ policy relevance, which is particularly dramatic at the broadest (M3) level of aggregation. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, “measurement matters.”

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2007Papers/200706.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Kansas, Department of Economics in its series WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS with number 200706.

as in new window
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Aug 2008
Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200706

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 415 Snow Hall, Lawrence, KS 66045
Phone: (785) 864-3501
Fax: (785) 864-5270
Email:
Web page: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Measurement Error; Divisia Index; Aggregation; State Space; Markov Switching; Monetary Policy;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005.
  2. Barnett, William A., 2007. "Multilateral aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregation over heterogeneous countries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 457-482, February.
  3. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
  4. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2006. "The Own-Price of Money and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 429-445, March.
  5. Barnett, William A. & Ronald Gallant, A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1995. "Robustness of nonlinearity and chaos tests to measurement error, inference method, and sample size," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 301-320, July.
  6. William A. Barnett & Melvin J. Hinich & Piyu Yue, . "The Exact Theoretical Rational Expectations Monetary Aggregate," Macroeconomics 0003004, EconWPA.
  7. William Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "On user costs of risy monetary assets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200404, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2004.
  8. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, EconWPA.
  9. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
  11. Barnett, William A, 1982. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 687-710, November.
  12. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Yi & Jensen, Mark, 1997. "Capm Risk Adjustment For Exact Aggregation Over Financial Assets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 485-512, June.
  13. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:197-221 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  15. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
  16. William A. Barnett & Melvin Hinich & Piyu Yue, 1989. "Monitoring monetary aggregates under risk aversion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 189-245.
  17. Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 517-33, December.
  18. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  19. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  20. Jones, Barry E. & Dutkowsky, Donald H. & Elger, Thomas, 2005. "Sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 483-508, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Barnett, William A. & Diewert, W. Erwin & Zellner, Arnold, 2009. "Introduction To Measurement With Theory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S2), pages 151-168, September.
  2. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2010. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 24721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2008. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-Century Empirical Overview," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200804, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  4. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Chin-Hong, Puah & Lee-Chea, Hiew, 2010. "Financial Liberalization, Weighted Monetary Aggregates and Money Demand in Indonesia," MPRA Paper 31731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Consumption and Wealth in the US, the UK and the Euro Area:A Nonlinear Investigation," NIPE Working Papers 24/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:200706

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ronald Caldwell).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.