Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Barnett, William A.
  • Chauvet, Marcelle

Abstract

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased-systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk-taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-511C04W-2/2/8d300e873f991b9d9cbca48a261ab9ee
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 161 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 6-23

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:1:p:6-23

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Measurement error Monetary aggregation Divisia index Aggregation Monetary policy Index number theory Financial crisis Great moderation Federal Reserve;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A comparison of the real-time performance of business cycle dating methods," Working Papers 2005-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  3. William A. Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "On User Costs of Risky Monetary Assets," Macroeconomics 0406009, EconWPA.
  4. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
  5. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
  6. William Barnett & Philippe de Peretti, 2009. "Admissible Clustering of Aggregator Components: A Necessary and Sufficient Stochastic Semi-Nonparametric Test for Weak Separability," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200904, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
  7. William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200515, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005.
  8. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
  9. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Heather L. R. Tierney, 2007. "Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200706, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2008.
  10. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
  11. Diewert, W E, 1974. "Intertemporal Consumer Theory and the Demand for Durables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 497-516, May.
  12. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  13. Rayton, Bruce A. & Pavlyk, Khrystyna, 2010. "On the recent divergence between measures of the money supply in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 159-162, August.
  14. Van Hoa, Tran, 1985. "A divisia system approach to modelling monetary aggregates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 365-368.
  15. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-83, October.
  16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2010. "The Barnett Critique After Three Decades: A New Keynesian Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 736, Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "Facts and myths about the financial crisis of 2008," Working Papers 666, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Belongia, Michael T & Chrystal, K Alec, 1991. "An Admissible Monetary Aggregate for the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 497-503, August.
  19. Drake, Leigh, 1992. "The Substitutability of Financial Assets in the U.K. and the Implications for Monetary Aggregation," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(3), pages 221-48, September.
  20. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
  21. Diewert, W Erwin, 1978. "Superlative Index Numbers and Consistency in Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 883-900, July.
  22. William A. Barnett, 1996. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Macroeconomics 9611001, EconWPA.
  23. William Barnett, 2004. "Multilateral Aggregation-Theoretic Monetary Aggregation over Heterogeneous Countries," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200413, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2004.
  24. Jones, Barry E. & Dutkowsky, Donald H. & Elger, Thomas, 2005. "Sweep programs and optimal monetary aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 483-508, February.
  25. Piyu Yue & Robert Fluri, 1991. "Divisia monetary services indexes for Switzerland: are they useful for monetary targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 19-33.
  26. P.A.V.B. Swamy & P.A. Tinsley, 1976. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Special Studies Papers 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Barnett, William A & Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1992. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2086-2119, December.
  28. Barnett, William A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Weber, Warren E., 1986. "The regulatory wedge between the demand-side and supply-side aggregation-theoretic monetary aggregates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 165-185.
  29. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2006. "The Own-Price of Money and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 429-445, March.
  30. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, October.
  31. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "The Financial Firm: Production with Monetary and Nonmonetary Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 859-80, October.
  32. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, EconWPA.
  33. Chauvet, Marcelle, 1998. "An Econometric Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 969-96, November.
  34. Barnett, William A & Hahm, Jeong Ho, 1994. "Financial-Firm Production of Monetary Services: A Generalized Symmetric Barnett Variable-Profit-Function Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 33-46, January.
  35. Hancock, Diana, 1985. "Bank Profitability, Interest Rates, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 189-202, May.
  36. Barnett, William A. & Liu, Yi & Jensen, Mark, 1997. "Capm Risk Adjustment For Exact Aggregation Over Financial Assets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 485-512, June.
  37. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March.
  38. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. William A Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2011. "Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., volume 2, number 7580.
  40. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  41. Barnett, William A, 1982. "The Optimal Level of Monetary Aggregation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(4), pages 687-710, November.
  42. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:1:p:6-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.