The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting
AbstractWe measure the United States capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with the present-value model of economic capital stock. We permit non-martingale expectations and time varying discount rates. Based on Barnett’s (1991) definition of the economic stock of money, we compute the U.S. economic stock of money by discounting to present value the flow of expected expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. As a theoretically consistent measure of money stock, our economic stock of money nests Rotemberg, Driscoll, and Poterba’s (1995) currency equivalent index as a special case, under the assumption of martingale expectations. To compute the economic stock of money without imposing martingale expectations, we use forecasts based on the asymmetric vector autoregressive model and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We find the resulting capital-stock growth-rate index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0508021.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 21 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39. A revised version of this paper will appear in the Annals of Finance
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monetary aggregation; econommic stock of money; aggregation theory; index number theory; VAR forecasting; wealth effect; Pigou effect; real balance effect; measurement;
Other versions of this item:
- William Barnett & John Keating & Unja Chae, 2006. "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 229-258, July.
- William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200515, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005.
- William A. Barnett & Unja Chae & John W. Keating, 2006. "The discounted economic stock of money with VAR forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 51, Society for Computational Economics.
- E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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