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The Discounted Economic Stock of Money with VAR Forecasting

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Author Info

  • William Barnett

    (University of Kansas)

  • Unja Chae

    (University of Kansas)

  • John Keating

    (University of Kansas)

Abstract

We measure the United States capital stock of money implied by the Divisia monetary aggregate service flow, in a manner consistent with the present-value model of economic capital stock. We permit non-martingale expectations and time varying discount rates. Based on Barnett’s (1991) definition of the economic stock of money, we compute the U.S. economic stock of money by discounting to present value the flow of expected expenditure on the services of monetary assets, where expenditure on monetary services is evaluated at the user costs of the monetary components. As a theoretically consistent measure of money stock, our economic stock of money nests Rotemberg, Driscoll, and Poterba’s (1995) currency equivalent index as a special case, under the assumption of martingale expectations. To compute the economic stock of money without imposing martingale expectations, we use forecasts based on the asymmetric vector autoregressive model and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model. We find the resulting capital-stock growth-rate index to be surprisingly robust to the modeling of expectations.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0508/0508021.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0508021.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 21 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0508021

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 39. A revised version of this paper will appear in the Annals of Finance
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: monetary aggregation; econommic stock of money; aggregation theory; index number theory; VAR forecasting; wealth effect; Pigou effect; real balance effect; measurement;

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References

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  1. William Barnett & Shu Wu, 2004. "On user costs of risy monetary assets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200404, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2004.
  2. William Barnett & Apostolos Serletis & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "The Theory of Monetary Aggregation (book front matter)," Macroeconomics 0511008, EconWPA.
  3. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  4. Rotemberg, Julio J & Driscoll, John C & Poterba, James M, 1995. "Money, Output, and Prices: Evidence from a New Monetary Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 67-83, January.
  5. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
  6. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  8. William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200516, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005.
  9. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  10. Schunk, Donald L, 2001. "The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 272-83, May.
  11. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
  12. Keating, John W., 2000. "Macroeconomic Modeling with Asymmetric Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-28, January.
  13. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. William Barnett, 2006. "Supply of Money," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200607, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  2. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Currency Equivalent Index and the Current Stock of Money," MPRA Paper 7176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kelly, Logan & Barnett, William A. & Keating, John W., 2010. "Rethinking the Liquidity Puzzle: Application of a New Measure of the Economic Money Stock," MPRA Paper 22085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet, 2009. "International Financial Aggregation and Index Number Theory: A Chronological Half-century Empirical Overview," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-37, February.
  5. William Barnett & John Keating & Logan Kelly, 2007. "Toward a Bias Corrected Currency Equivalent Index," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200707, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2007.
  6. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2010. "How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis," MPRA Paper 24721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen & Logan J. Kelly, 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  8. William Barnett & Unja Chae & John Keating, 2005. "Forecast Design in Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200516, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2005.
  9. Kelly, Logan J, 2008. "The Stock of Money and Why You Should Care," MPRA Paper 11455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle, 2008. "The End of the Great Moderation: “We told you so.”," MPRA Paper 11642, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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