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Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula

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Author Info
Chollete, Lorán () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
Heinen, Andréas () (Dept. of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
Valdesogo, Alfonso () (Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), Université Catholique de Louvain)

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Abstract

In order to capture observed asymmetric dependence in international financial returns, we construct a multivariate regime-switching model of copulas. We model dependence with one Gaussian and one canonical vine copula regime. Canonical vines are constructed from bivariate conditional copulas and provide a very flexible way of characterizing dependence in multivariate settings. We apply the model to returns from the G5 and Latin American regions, and document two main findings. First, we discover that models with canonical vines generally dominate alternative dependence structures. Second, the choice of copula is important for risk management, because it modifies the Value at Risk (VaR) of international portfolio returns.

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Paper provided by Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration in its series Discussion Papers with number 2008/3.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 12 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2008_003

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Related research
Keywords: Asymmetric dependence; Canonical vine copula; International returns; Regime-Switching; Risk Management; Value-at-Risk;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
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  8. Berkowitz, Jeremy, 2001. "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 465-74, October.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger. [Downloadable!]
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