IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/raaexx/v23y2016i1p112-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate uncertainty and FDI inflows: the case of Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Burçak Polat
  • Cem Payaslıoğlu

Abstract

In this paper, using monthly data for the period of 2004--2014, we employ a Markov switching model to examine the impact of the level and volatility of real exchange rate (RER) on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Turkey along with a set of control factors. Our estimation results do not support any effect of volatility or the RER. On the other hand, internal factors such as agglomeration effect, inflation, new incentive measures of 2009, and external factors such as Euro area policy interest rate and risk appetite turn out to be effective in driving FDI into the host country.

Suggested Citation

  • Burçak Polat & Cem Payaslıoğlu, 2016. "Exchange rate uncertainty and FDI inflows: the case of Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 112-129, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:raaexx:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:112-129
    DOI: 10.1080/16081625.2015.1032312
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/16081625.2015.1032312
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/16081625.2015.1032312?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.
    2. XING, Yuqing, 2006. "Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 198-209.
    3. Peiming Wang & Joseph Alba & Donghyun Park, 2013. "Determinants of Different Modes of FDI: Firm-Level Evidence from Japanese FDI into the US," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 425-446, July.
    4. Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-873, November.
    5. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    7. Glauco De Vita & Andrew Abbott, 2007. "Do exchange rates have any impact upon UK inward foreign direct investment?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2553-2564.
    8. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano d'Addona, 2013. "Nominal and real volatility as determinants of FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2603-2610, June.
    11. Lahiri, Sajal & Mesa, Fernando, 2006. "Local content requirement on foreign direct investment under exchange rate volatility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 346-363.
    12. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    13. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    14. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Niaz Morshed & Mohammad Razib Hossain, 2022. "Causality analysis of the determinants of FDI in Bangladesh: fresh evidence from VAR, VECM and Granger causality approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    2. Magdalene Williams & Ahmad Abu Alrub & Mehmet Aga, 2022. "Ecological Footprint, Economic Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment in South Africa: Evidence From Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balaban, Suzana & Živkov, Dejan & Milenković, Ivan, 2019. "Impact of an unexplained component of real exchange rate volatility on FDI: Evidence from transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    2. Matthias Busse & Carsten Hefeker & Signe Nelgen, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Regimes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 843-858.
    3. Arbeláez, Harvey & Ruiz, Isabel, 2013. "Macroeconomic antecedents to U.S. investment in Latin America," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 439-447.
    4. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Sookia, 2019. "Explaining Heterogeneity in the Effect of the Exchange Rate and Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta‐Analysis Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 31(3), pages 275-291, September.
    5. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano D'Addona, 2013. "Business cycle determinants of US foreign direct investments," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 966-970, July.
    6. Lord Mensah & Godfred Alufar Bokpin & Eric Dei Fosu-Hene, 2017. "Foreign exchange rate moments and FDI in Ghana," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 136-152, January.
    7. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    8. Jung Wan Lee & Tantatape Brahmasrene, 2020. "Exchange Rate Movements and Structural Break on China FDI Inflows," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    9. Osei-Fosu & Baba Insah Anthony & Ofori-Boateng Kenneth, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: The Ghanaian Experience," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(6), pages 336-344.
    10. S. Veeramani & Abha Shukla & Mariam Jamaleh, 2020. "Financial theories of foreign direct investment: a review of literature," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(2), pages 185-217, June.
    11. Qi, Jianhong & Liu, Hui & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2021. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the timing of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1193-1204.
    12. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Barry Scholnick, 2002. "Exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(1), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Yao, Shujie & Wang, Pan, 2014. "Has China displaced the outward investments of OECD countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 55-71.
    14. Sakli Hniya & Ahlem Boubker & Fatma Mrad & Sawssen Nafti, 2021. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Tunisia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 52-67.
    15. Manop Udomkerdmongkol & Oliver Morrissey & Holger Görg, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 754-764, November.
    16. Zainab Jehan & Azooba Hamid, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and capital inflows: role of financial development," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 16(3), pages 189-203, December.
    17. Marcin Humanicki & Robert Kelm & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2013. "Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Portfolio Investment in the contemporary globalized world: should they be still treated separately?," NBP Working Papers 167, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    18. Shi Li & Hironobu Nakagawa, 2022. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firm‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2902-2923, September.
    19. Ni, Shawn & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Heterogeneous parameter uncertainty and the timing of investment during crisis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-22.
    20. Takagi, Shinji & Shi, Zongying, 2011. "Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 265-272.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:raaexx:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:112-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/raae20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.