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Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty

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Author Info
Linda S. Goldberg
Charles D. Kolstad

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Abstract

Variable real exchange rates influence the country choice for location of production facilities by a multinational enterprise. With risk averse investors and fixed productive factors, a parent company should not be indifferent to the choice of production capacity location, even when the expected costs of production are identical across countries. If a non-negative correlation exists between real export demand shocks and real exchange rate shocks, the multinational will optimally locate some of its productive capacity abroad. The share of production capacity optimally located abroad increases as exchange rate volatility rises and as export demand shocks become more correlated. These theoretical results are confirmed by empirical analysis of quarterly United States bilateral foreign-direct- investment flows with Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4815.

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Date of creation: Aug 1994
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Publication status: published as International Economic Review (Nov 1995) vol 36, no.4, pp.855-873.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4815

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  1. Baldwin, Richard & Krugman, Paul, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  4. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1986. "The Multinational Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 805-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. de Meza, David & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Production Flexibility as a Motive for Multinationality," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 343-51, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Craine, Roger, 1989. "Risky business : The allocation of capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 201-218, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "Credibility, Debt and Unemployment: Ireland's Failed Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Joshua Aizenman, 1992. "Exchange Rate Flexibility, Volatility and the Patterns of Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment," IMF Working Papers 92/20, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Klein, Michael W. & Rosengren, Eric, 1994. "The real exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the United States : Relative wealth vs. relative wage effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 373-389, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Goldberg, Linda S. & Kolstad, Charles D., 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," Working Papers 94-23, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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