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Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America: Living and Dying by Commodities?

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  • Maximo Camacho
  • Gabriel Perez-Quiros

Abstract

We analyze the dynamic interactions between commodity prices and output growth of the seven biggest Latin American exporters: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Using a novel definition of Markov-switching impulse response functions, we find that the response of each country's output growth to commodity price shocks is time dependent, size dependent, and sign dependent. The major evidence of asymmetries in output growth responses occurs when commodity price shocks lead to regime shifts. Thus, we conclude that the design of optimal countercyclical stabilization policies should consider that the reactions of economic activity vary considerably across business cycle regimes.

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  • Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2014. "Commodity Prices and the Business Cycle in Latin America: Living and Dying by Commodities?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 110-137, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:50:y:2014:i:2:p:110-137
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    3. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193, Central Bank of Chile.
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    5. Werner Kristjanpoller & Josephine E. Olson & Rodolfo I. Salazar, 2016. "Does the commodities boom support the export led growth hypothesis? Evidence from Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Ercio Muñoz S. & Mariel C. Siravegna, 2013. "¿Tiene un Impacto el Precio de las Materias Primas Sobre las Bolsas de América Latina?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(3), pages 102-118, December.
    7. Karamé, F., 2012. "An algorithm for generalized impulse-response functions in Markov-switching structural VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 230-234.
    8. Karamé, Frédéric, 2015. "Asymmetries and Markov-switching structural VAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 85-102.
    9. Aviral K. Tiwari & Claudiu T. Albulescu & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Time-frequency relationship between US output with commodity and asset prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 227-242, January.
    10. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Khalifa, Ahmed & Caporin, Massimiliano & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Spillovers between energy and FX markets: The importance of asymmetry, uncertainty and business cycle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 72-82.
    12. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & María de la Cruz Del Río-Rama & José Álvarez-García, 2022. "Using Markov-Switching Models in US Stocks Optimal Portfolio Selection in a Black–Litterman Context (Part 1)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, April.
    13. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Dora Aguilasocho-Montoya & María de la Cruz del Río-Rama, 2020. "A Two-Regime Markov-Switching GARCH Active Trading Algorithm for Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar Futures," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-19, June.
    14. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2019. "A Test of Using Markov-Switching GARCH Models in Oil and Natural Gas Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
    15. Ftiti, Zied & Kablan, Sandrine & Guesmi, Khaled, 2016. "What can we learn about commodity and credit cycles? Evidence from African commodity-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-324.
    16. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    17. Alarcon Gambarte, Samuel, 2019. "Shocks de precios internacionales bajo incertidumbre estocástica [International Prices Shocks under Stochastic Uncertainty]," MPRA Paper 97116, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; commodity prices; output growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • Y - Miscellaneous Categories
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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