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Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models

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  • Maximo Camacho

    ()

  • Jaime Martinez-Martin

    ()

Abstract

We show that the single-index dynamic factor model developed by Aruoba and Diebold (Am Econ Rev, 100:20–24, 2010 ) to construct an index of the US business cycle conditions is also very useful to forecast US GDP growth in real time. In addition, we adapt the model to include survey data and financial indicators. We find that our extension is unequivocally the preferred alternative to compute backcasts. In nowcasting and forecasting, our model is able to forecast growth as well as AD and better than several baseline alternatives. Finally, we show that our extension could also be used to infer the US business cycles very precisely. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 47 (2014)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 347-364

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:47:y:2014:i:1:p:347-364

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Keywords: Real-time forecasting; Economic indicators; Business cycles; E32; C22; E27;

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References

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  1. Angel De la Fuente & Jose Emilio Bosca, 2011. "Gasto educativo por regiones y niveles en 2005," Working Papers 1119, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
  3. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2003. "Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?," NBER Working Papers 9829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
  5. Javier Alonso & David Tuesta & Jasmina Bjeletic & Carlos Herrera & Soledad Hormazabal & Ivonne Ordonez & Carolina Romero, 2009. "Un balance de la inversion de los fondos de pensiones en infraestructura: la experiencia en Latinoamerica," Working Papers 0920, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  6. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
  7. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  8. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  13. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
  14. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," MPRA Paper 53699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Marcos Dal Bianco & Jaime Martinez-Martín & Maximo Camacho, 2013. "Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine GDP Growth," Working Papers 1314, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.

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