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Year-end seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives

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Author Info
Christopher J. Neely
Drew B. Winters

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Abstract

We examine the markets for one-month LIBOR futures contracts and options on those futures for a year-end price effect consistent with the previously identified year-end rate increase in one-month LIBOR. The cash market rate increase appears in forward rates and derivative prices, which allows the derivatives to properly hedge year-end interest rate risk. However, while the year-end effect appears in the derivative contract, these derivative contracts provide biased forecasts of both future interest rates and their volatility. The bias appears to be different at year's end for the LIBOR futures contract, but not for the options contract. The information in the derivatives almost always subsumes simple benchmark forecasts. ; Earlier title: Seasonality in one-month LIBOR derivatives

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-040.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Derivatives, Spring 2006, 13(3), pp. 47-65
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-040

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Keywords: Econometrics ; Monetary policy ; Finance;

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  10. Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?," Working Papers 2003-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bruce Mizrach & Christopher J. Neely, 2007. "The microstructure of the U.S. treasury market," Working Papers 2007-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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