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Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework

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  • Hong, Yanran
  • Wang, Lu
  • Liang, Chao
  • Umar, Muhammad

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic impact of financial stress on crude oil volatility by employing a time-varying transition probabilities Markov regime-switching GARCH model (TVTP-MS-GARCH). Different from the existing work, we mainly consider the possible nonlinearity and regime changes among crude oil volatility and financial stress. First, the in-sample results strongly support the existence of the potential regime switches among the two financial fundamentals. Second, compared with the symmetric TVTP-MS-GARCH model, the model based on an asymmetric framework shows a better predictive performance in the out-of-sample findings. It implies that the dynamic impact of financial stress on crude oil exhibits an asymmetric feature. Finally, our findings are robust to several alternative checks, including other lags of financial stress and estimated window size. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the dynamic changes of financial stress for accurately predicting crude oil volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Impact of financial instability on international crude oil volatility: New sight from a regime-switching framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s0301420722001155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102667
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    Keywords

    Crude oil volatility; Financial stress; Time-varying transition probability; Markov-switching GARCH; Forecasting efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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