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Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?

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  • Jammazi, Rania
  • Ferrer, Román
  • Jareño, Francisco
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain

Abstract

This paper investigates the presence of time-varying causal linkages in mean and variance between oil price changes and stock returns for six major oil-importing countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US) in a multiscale framework that combines wavelet analysis and a modified version of the dynamic causality test of Lu, Hong, Wang, Lai, and Liu (2014). The results show significant bidirectional causal relations between oil and stock markets at the different time horizons for all countries. The causal links tend to be stronger at coarser scales and in periods of financial turmoil, mainly during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. This evidence provides useful insights to participants in oil and stock markets and to policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jammazi, Rania & Ferrer, Román & Jareño, Francisco & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2017. "Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 453-483.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:453-483
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2017.03.007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C22; E44; G15; Q43; Oil price; Stock returns; Wavelet analysis; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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