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Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Liu, Ruipeng

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent or transitory. We use two recently developed unit root tests, namely the Narayan and Popp (NP) [14] test and the Liu and Narayan (LN) [26] test. Both tests allow for two structural breaks in the data series. Using the NP test, we are able to reject the unit root null for iron ore and tin. Using the GARCH-based unit root test of LN, we are able to reject the unit root null for five commodity prices (iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin). Our findings, thus, suggest that only shocks to gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, and copper are persistent.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Applied Energy.

Volume (Year): 88 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 409-416

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Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:1:p:409-416

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Keywords: Commodity prices Unit root test GARCH Persistent Transitory Structural break;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2014. "Unit root properties of natural gas spot and futures prices: The relevance of heteroskedasticity in high frequency data," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 20-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  2. Westerlund, Joakim, 2013. "Simple unit root testing in generally trending data with an application to precious metal prices in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 12-27.
  3. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
  4. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2012. "Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 296-307.

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