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'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

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  • Russell Smyth
  • Ingrid Nielsen
  • Vinod Mishra

Abstract

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 1367-1378

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:11:p:1367-1378

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Cited by:
  1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
  2. Duha Altindag, 2014. "Crime and International Tourism," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 1-14, March.
  3. Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Asian Financial Crisis, Avian Flu And Terrorist Threats: Are Shocks To Malaysian Tourist Arrivals Permanent Or Transitory?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 11/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Duha T. Altindag, 2014. "Crime and International Tourism," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  5. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Narayan, Seema & Popp, Stephan, 2010. "Energy consumption at the state level: The unit root null hypothesis from Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1953-1962, June.

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