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Are Shocks To Energy Consumption Permanent Or Temporary? Evidence From 182 Countries

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Author Info
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Russell Smyth

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Abstract

This paper applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979-2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption. The univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 29 per cent of the countries at the 10 per cent level or better without a trend and 37 per cent of the countries at the 10 per cent level or better with a trend. However, it is often argued that unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution. When we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary. We discuss the implications of these findings for econometric modeling and policy formulation.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 2005-06.

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Length: 18 pages
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Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2005-06

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Keywords: Energy consumption; Unit roots; Panel data;

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  1. Engsted, T & Bentzen, J, 1997. "Dynamic Modelling of Energy Demand : A Guided Tour Through the Jungle of Unit Roots and Cointegration," Papers 97-6, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
  2. Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Tests and Purchasing Power Parity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(0), pages 42-56, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Roed, Knut, 1997. " Hysteresis in Unemployment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(4), pages 389-418, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Roger Perman & David I. Stern, 1999. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: Implications of Non-Stationarity," Working Papers in Ecological Economics 9901, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program. [Downloadable!]
  6. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2004. "The Evaluation of Standard of Living and the Role of Household Electricity Consumption - A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Research Papers 0410, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Karlsson, Sune & Lothgren, Mickael, 2000. "On the power and interpretation of panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 249-255, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  10. Russell Smyth, 2003. "Unemployment Hysteresis in Australian States and Territories: Evidence from Panel Data Unit Root Tests," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(2), pages 181-192. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  14. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Theodoros Zachariadis & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2006. "An Empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 4-2006, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Non-Linear Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Production," Monash Economics Working Papers 39/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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