Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations
AbstractThis paper investigates the causal relations between stock return and volume based on quantile regressions. We first define Granger non-causality in all quantiles and propose testing non-causality by a sup-Wald test. Such a test is consistent against any deviation from non-causality in distribution, as opposed to the existing tests that check only non-causality in certain moment. This test is readily extended to test non-causality in different quantile ranges. In the empirical studies of three major stock market indices, we find that the causal effects of volume on return are usually heterogeneous across quantiles and those of return on volume are more stable. In particular, the quantile causal effects of volume on return exhibit a spectrum of (symmetric) V-shape relations so that the dispersion of return distribution increases with lagged volume. This is an alternative evidence that volume has a positive effect on return volatility. Moreover, the inclusion of the squares of lagged returns in the model may weaken the quantile causal effects of volume on return but does not affect the causality per se.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.
Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
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Granger non-causality Quantile causal effect Quantile regression Return-volume relation Sup-Wald test;
Other versions of this item:
- Chia-Chang Chuang & Chung-Ming Kuan & Hsin-yi Lin, 2007. "Causality in Quantiles and Dynamic Stock Return-Volume Relations," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A006, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
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