IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/iimkoz/v10y2021i1p7-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Abhinava Tripathi

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of information arrival on prices for 21 major global market indices for the period 1998–2018, employing quantile regression methodology. The results show that there is a contemporaneous and causal effect of volume on returns. This return-volume relation is a manifestation of systematic market-wide information that is released in an autocorrelated manner to market participants. This information is absorbed by the market participants over short horizons, within a day. This leads to uniform expectations and, in turn, lower volatility levels. The effect of volume on return is heterogeneous across the conditional quantiles, reflecting the contrasting patterns in the transmission of positive and negative news. This evidence is more pronounced when the intensity of information arrival is high (the tails of return distribution), which is consistent with the mixture of distribution hypothesis and information asymmetry hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:iimkoz:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:7-19
    DOI: 10.1177/2277975220937994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2277975220937994
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/2277975220937994?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Bellemare, Charles & Krause, Michaela & Kroger, Sabine & Zhang, Chendi, 2005. "Myopic loss aversion: Information feedback vs. investment flexibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 319-324, June.
    3. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    5. Bohl, Martin T. & Klein, Arne C. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2014. "Short-selling bans and institutional investors' herding behaviour: Evidence from the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 262-269.
    6. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Jung, Robert C., 2012. "Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 254-265.
    7. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
    8. Richard H. Thaler & Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman & Alan Schwartz, 1997. "The Effect of Myopia and Loss Aversion on Risk Taking: An Experimental Test," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 647-661.
    9. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
    10. Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
    11. Baker, Malcolm & Stein, Jeremy C., 2004. "Market liquidity as a sentiment indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 271-299, June.
    12. Epps, Thomas W & Epps, Mary Lee, 1976. "The Stochastic Dependence of Security Price Changes and Transaction Volumes: Implications for the Mixture-of-Distributions Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(2), pages 305-321, March.
    13. Alessandro Beber & Marco Pagano, 2013. "Short-Selling Bans Around the World: Evidence from the 2007–09 Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 343-381, February.
    14. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    16. Bohl, Martin T. & Essid, Badye & Siklos, Pierre L., 2012. "Do short selling restrictions destabilize stock markets? Lessons from Taiwan," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 198-206.
    17. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    18. Koenker, Roger, 2004. "Quantile regression for longitudinal data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 74-89, October.
    19. Dimmock, Stephen G. & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2010. "Loss-aversion and household portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 441-459, June.
    20. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    21. Malinova, Katya & Park, Andreas, 2010. "Trading Volume in Dealer Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 1447-1484, December.
    22. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    23. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. "Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-1469, December.
    24. Frank J. Fabozzi & Chun-Yip Fung & Kin Lam & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Market overreaction and underreaction: tests of the directional and magnitude effects," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1469-1482, September.
    25. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    26. repec:dgr:kubcen:200432 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Jennings, Robert H & Starks, Laura T & Fellingham, John C, 1981. "An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 143-161, March.
    28. Clements, A.E. & Hurn, A.S. & Volkov, V.V., 2015. "Volatility transmission in global financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 3-18.
    29. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    30. Suominen, Matti, 2001. "Trading Volume and Information Revelation in Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(4), pages 545-565, December.
    31. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    32. Kim, Sukwon Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 2014. "Are trading imbalances indicative of private information?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 151-174.
    33. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    34. Eric C. Chang & Joseph W. Cheng & Yinghui Yu, 2007. "Short‐Sales Constraints and Price Discovery: Evidence from the Hong Kong Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2097-2121, October.
    35. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Evidence on the speed of convergence to market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 271-292, May.
    36. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    37. Jinliang Li & Chunchi Wu, 2006. "Daily Return Volatility, Bid-Ask Spreads, and Information Flow: Analyzing the Information Content of Volume," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2697-2740, September.
    38. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2000. "Commonality in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 3-28, April.
    39. Ihsan Ullah Badshah, 2013. "Quantile Regression Analysis of the Asymmetric Return‐Volatility Relation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 235-265, March.
    40. BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2019. "Good and bad volatility spillovers: An asymmetric connectedness," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 78-95.
    41. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
    42. Darrat, Ali F. & Rahman, Shafiqur & Zhong, Maosen, 2003. "Intraday trading volume and return volatility of the DJIA stocks: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 2035-2043, October.
    43. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1994. "Endogenous Trading Volume and Momentum in Stock-Return Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-260, April.
    44. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    45. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    46. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M, 2001. "The Dynamic Relation between Stock Returns, Trading Volume, and Volatility," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 153-173, August.
    47. Lee, Soonhee, 2017. "Does short sale restriction lower price efficiency when substitutes exist? Evidence from the Korean market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 77-79.
    48. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    49. Ahmet E. Kocagil & Yochanan Shachmurove, 1998. "Return‐volume dynamics in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 399-426, June.
    50. Copeland, Thomas E, 1976. "A Model of Asset Trading under the Assumption of Sequential Information Arrival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1149-1168, September.
    51. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    52. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
    53. Robert Bloomfield & Maureen O'Hara & Gideon Saar, 2015. "Hidden Liquidity: Some New Light on Dark Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2227-2274, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Mungai, Ann Nduati, 2022. "Stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: The case of African stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "Return–volume nexus in financial markets: A survey of research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    5. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    6. Gurleen Sahota & Balwinder Singh, 2016. "The Empirical Investigation of Causal Relationship between Intraday Return and Volume in Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 20(3), pages 199-210, September.
    7. Henryk Gurgul & Roland Mestel & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2007. "Distribution of volume on the American stock market," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 1, pages 143-163.
    8. Kao, Yu-Sheng & Zhao, Kai & Chuang, Hwei-Lin & Ku, Yu-Cheng, 2024. "The asymmetric relationships between the Bitcoin futures’ return, volatility, and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 524-542.
    9. Chuang, Wen-I & Liu, Hsiang-Hsi & Susmel, Rauli, 2012. "The bivariate GARCH approach to investigating the relation between stock returns, trading volume, and return volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15.
    10. Lee, Jaeram & Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Difference in the intraday return-volume relationships of spots and futures: A quantile regression approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-68, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Kao, Yu-Sheng & Chuang, Hwei-Lin & Ku, Yu-Cheng, 2020. "The empirical linkages among market returns, return volatility, and trading volume: Evidence from the S&P 500 VIX Futures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Gebka, Bartosz & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Causality between trading volume and returns: Evidence from quantile regressions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 144-159.
    13. Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Quiterie de Rorthays, 2009. "More on the volatility-trading volume relationship in emerging markets: The Chinese stock market," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 779-799.
    14. Farag, Hisham & Cressy, Robert, 2011. "Do regulatory policies affect the flow of information in emerging markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 238-254, September.
    15. Cathy W.S. Chen & Mike K.P. So & Thomas C. Chiang, 2016. "Evidence of Stock Returns and Abnormal Trading Volume: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 96-124, March.
    16. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    17. Bartosz Gębka, 2012. "The Dynamic Relation Between Returns, Trading Volume, And Volatility: Lessons From Spillovers Between Asia And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 65-90, January.
    18. Behrendt, Simon & Schmidt, Alexander, 2021. "Nonlinearity matters: The stock price – trading volume relation revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 371-385.
    19. Razvan Stefanescu & Ramona Dumitriu, 2016. "Contrarian and Momentum Profits during Periods of High Trading Volume preceded by Stock Prices Shocks," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 378-384.
    20. Panpan Wang & Tsungwu Ho & Yishi Li, 2020. "The Price-Volume Relationship of the Shanghai Stock Index: Structural Change and the Threshold Effect of Volatility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-17, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:iimkoz:v:10:y:2021:i:1:p:7-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.