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Are trading imbalances indicative of private information?

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  • Kim, Sukwon Thomas
  • Stoll, Hans R.

Abstract

Trading imbalances are often interpreted to be the result of informed trading. Yet imbalances may simply reflect random shocks or the results of liquidity trading. If trading imbalances reflect informed trading, they should anticipate major news events. Using announcements of earnings, acquisition targets, and seasoned equity offerings as our information events, we examine whether prior trading imbalances are related to the subsequent news. We conclude that imbalances do not well reflect the information held by informed traders. Trading imbalances do have price effects, but they are contemporaneous and are not significantly correlated with the forthcoming announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Sukwon Thomas & Stoll, Hans R., 2014. "Are trading imbalances indicative of private information?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 151-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:20:y:2014:i:c:p:151-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2014.03.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Abhinava Tripathi, 2021. "The Arrival of Information and Price Adjustment Across Extreme Quantiles: Global Evidence," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(1), pages 7-19, January.
    3. Jan Hanousek & Hoje Jo & Christos Pantzalis & Jung Chul Park, 2023. "A Dilemma of Self-interest vs. Ethical Responsibilities in Political Insider Trading," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 187(1), pages 137-167, September.
    4. Chung, Y. Peter & Hong, Hyun A. & Kim, S. Thomas, 2019. "What causes the asymmetric correlation in stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 190-212.
    5. Jeffrey R. Black & Pankaj K. Jain & Wei Sun, 2023. "Trade-time clustering," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1209-1242, April.
    6. Hoang, Lai T. & Baur, Dirk G., 2022. "Loaded for bear: Bitcoin private wallets, exchange reserves and prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Yang, Yung Chiang & Zhang, Bohui & Zhang, Chu, 2020. "Is information risk priced? Evidence from abnormal idiosyncratic volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 528-554.
    8. Abad, David & Massot, Magdalena & Pascual, Roberto, 2018. "Evaluating VPIN as a trigger for single-stock circuit breakers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 21-36.
    9. Laurence Lescourret, 2017. "Cold Case File? Inventory Risk and Information Sharing during the pre†1997 NASDAQ," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 761-806, September.
    10. Zhang, Sijia & Gregoriou, Andros, 2021. "The impact of order flow on event study returns: New evidence from zero-leverage firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 627-634.
    11. Ting Zhang & George J. Jiang & Wei‐Xing Zhou, 2021. "Order imbalance and stock returns: New evidence from the Chinese stock market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 2809-2836, June.
    12. Justin Cox, 2021. "ISO order imbalances and individual stock returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 5-23, April.
    13. Acheson, Graeme G. & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2018. "Prices and informed trading: Evidence from an early stock market," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2018-05, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    14. Kim, Thomas, 2015. "Does individual-stock skewness/coskewness reflect portfolio risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 167-174.
    15. Duarte, Jefferson & Hu, Edwin & Young, Lance, 2020. "A comparison of some structural models of private information arrival," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 795-815.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trading imbalance; Order imbalance; Informed trading; Private information; Earnings announcements; Mergers and acquisitions; Seasoned equity offerings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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