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Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions

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Author Info
Huang, Roger D
Stoll, Hans R

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Abstract

To what extent are the empirical regularities implied by market microstructure theories useful in predicting the short-run behavior of stock returns A two-equation econometric model of quote revisions and transaction returns is developed and used to identify the relative importance of different microstructure theories and to make predictions. Microstructure variables and lagged stock index futures returns have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power based on data observed at five-minute intervals. The most striking microstructure implication of the model, confirmed by the empirical results, specifies that the expected quote return is positively related to the deviation between the transaction price and the quote midpoint while the expected transaction return is negatively related to the same variable. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/fcgi-bin/jstor/listjournal.fcg/08939454
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 7 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 179-213
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:7:y:1994:i:1:p:179-213

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  1. Shafiqur Rahman & Chandrasekhar Krishnamurti & Alice Lee, 2005. "The Dynamics of Security Trades, Quote Revisions, and Market Depths for Actively Traded Stocks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 91-124, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Roger Huang & H. Weingartner, 2000. "Do Market Makers Suffer from Splitting Headaches?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 105-126, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sugato Chakravarty, 2002. "Stealth-Trading: Which Traders' Trades Move Stock Prices?," Finance 0201003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Robert Engle & Andrew Patton, 2000. "Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2000-26, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David Abad & Antonio Rubia, 2005. "Modelos De Estimacion De La Probabilidad De Negociacion Informada: Una Comparacion Metodologica En El Mercado Español," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  6. Bartley R. Danielsen & David M. Harrison, 2000. "The Impact of Potential Private Information on REIT Liquidity," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 49-71. [Downloadable!]
  7. Simon H. Kwan & Mark J. Flannery & M. Nimalendran, 1999. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Tarun Chordia & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2000. "Order Imbalance and Individual Stock Returns," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1080, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Katarzyna Bien & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2007. "An Inflated Multivariate Integer Count Hurdle Model: An Application to Bid and Ask Quote Dynamics," CoFE Discussion Paper 07-04, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  10. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0012419, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  11. Katarzyna Bien & Ingmar Nolte & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2006. "A Multivariate Integer Count Hurdle Model: Theory and Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics," CoFE Discussion Paper 06-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bartolomé Pascual-Fuster & Francisco Climent & Roberto Pascual, 2003. "Cross-Listing, Price Discovery And The Informativeness Of The Trading Process," Working Papers. Serie EC 2003-21, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Wing Lon Ng, 2006. "Overreaction and Multiple Tail Dependence at the High-frequency Level — The Copula Rose," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-086, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. Fohlin, Caroline & Gehrig, Thomas, 2006. "Trading Costs in Early Securities Markets: The Case of the Berlin Stock Exchange, 1880-1910," CEPR Discussion Papers 5827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The Price Dynamics of Common Trading Strategies," Working Papers 00-12-069, Santa Fe Institute.
    Other versions:
  16. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  17. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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