Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ceron, Jose A.
  • Suarez, Javier

Abstract

This paper examines the experience of 14 developed countries for which there are about 30 years of quarterly inflation-adjusted housing price data. Price dynamics is modelled as a combination of a country-specific component and a cyclical component. The cyclical component is a two-state Markov switching process with parameters common to all countries. We find that the latent cyclical variable captures previously undocumented changes in the volatility of real housing price increases. These volatility phases are quite persistent (about six years, on average) and occur with about the same unconditional frequency over time. In line with previous studies, the mean of real housing price increases can be predicted to be larger when lagged values of those increases are large, real GDP growth is high, unemployment falls, and interest rates are low or have declined. Our findings have important implications for risk management in regard to residential property markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5411.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5411.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5411

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: cycles; housing prices; Markov switching; volatility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kai-Uwe Kühn & Matilde Machado, 2004. "Bilateral Market Power And Vertical Integration In The Spanish Electricity Spot Market," Working Papers wp2004_0414, CEMFI.
  2. Abel Elizalde & Rafael Repullo, 2004. "Economic And Regulatory Capital. What Is The Difference?," Working Papers wp2004_0422, CEMFI.
  3. Claudio Michelacci & David López-Salido, 2003. "Technology shocks and job flows," Banco de España Working Papers 0308, Banco de España.
  4. David A. Marshall & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2002. "State-contingent bank regulation with unobserved action and unobserved characteristics," Working Paper Series WP-02-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Stein, Jeremy C, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406, May.
  6. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2002. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-01, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  7. Javier Alvarez & Manuel Arellano, 2004. "Robust Likelihood Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers wp2004_0421, CEMFI.
  8. Almazan, Andres & Suarez, Javier & Titman, Sheridan, 2004. "Stakeholders, Transparency and Capital Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 4181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav, 2006. "Production Targets," NBER Working Papers 11958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Enrique Sentana & Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 2004. "Indirect Estimation Of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2004_0409, CEMFI.
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  12. Ángel León & Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "Parametric properties of semi-nonparametric distributions, with applications to option valuation," Banco de España Working Papers 0707, Banco de España.
  13. Thomas F Helbling, 2005. "Housing price bubbles - a tale based on housing price booms and busts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 30-41 Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Edward Simpson Prescott, 2004. "Auditing and bank capital regulation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 47-63.
  15. Claudio Michelacci & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2005. "Borrowing from Employees: Wage Dynamics with Financial Constraints," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 360-369, 04/05.
  16. Marta González & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2005. "The Flat Tax Reform: A General Equilibrium Evaluation For Spain," Working Papers wp2005_0505, CEMFI.
  17. Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and Testing of Dynamic Models with Generalised Hyperbolic Innovations," FMG Discussion Papers dp502, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Becker, Sascha O. & Bentolila, Samuel & Fernandes, Ana & Ichino, Andrea, 2004. "Job Insecurity and Children’s Emancipation," IZA Discussion Papers 1046, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices: Does 'Benign Neglect' Make Sense?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 139-64, Summer.
  20. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2008. "Spanning tests in return and stochastic discount factor mean-variance frontiers: A unifying approach," Economics Working Papers 1101, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
  22. Beatriz Domínguez & Juan José Ganuza & Gerard Llobet, 2005. "R&D in the pharmaceutical industry: A world of small innovations," Economics Working Papers 936, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  23. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ana Fernandes, 2005. "Knowledge, Technology Adoption and Financial Innovation," Diskussionsschriften dp0513, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  25. Claudio Michelacci & Olmo Silva, 2007. "Why So Many Local Entrepreneurs?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 615-633, November.
  26. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January.
  27. David S. Evans & A. Jorge Padilla, 2004. "Excessive Prices: Using Economics To Define Administrable Legal Rules," Working Papers wp2004_0416, CEMFI.
  28. Llobet, Gerard & Suarez, Javier, 2005. "Financing and the Protection of Innovators," CEPR Discussion Papers 4944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December.
  30. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2007. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(1), pages 1-53, 01.
  31. Bentolila, Samuel & Michelacci, Claudio & Suarez, Javier, 2004. "Social Contacts and Occupational Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 4308, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  34. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "Disecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1164, Econometric Society.
  35. Evans, David S & Padilla, Atilano Jorge, 2004. "Designing Antitrust Rules for Assessing Unilateral Practices: A Neo-Chicago Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 4625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Englund, P. & Ioannides, Y.M., 1996. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Papers 1996-01, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  37. Rafael Repullo, 2005. "Liquidity, Risk-Taking, And The Lender Of Last Resort," Working Papers wp2005_0504, CEMFI.
  38. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Pricing Real Assets with Costly Search," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 55-90.
  39. Manuel Arellano & Jinyong Hahn, 2005. "Understanding Bias In Nonlinear Panel Models: Some Recent Developments," Working Papers wp2005_0507, CEMFI.
  40. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March.
  41. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  42. Juan J. Dolado & Vanesa Llorens, 2004. "Gender Wage Gaps By Education In Spain: Glass Floors Vs. Glass Ceilings," Working Papers wp2004_03, CEMFI.
  43. Aleix Calveras & Juan-José Ganuza & Gerard Llobet, 2005. "Regulation And Opportunism: How Much Activism Do We Need?," Working Papers wp2005_0508, CEMFI.
  44. Rafael Repullo, 2004. "Policies For Banking Crises: A Theoretical Framework," Working Papers wp2004_0418, CEMFI.
  45. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav & Daniel Quint, 2004. "Multilateral Bargaining With Concession Costs," Working Papers wp2004_0415, CEMFI.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Shachmurove, Tomer & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2011. "String of defaults: Spanish financial crises through the years," MPRA Paper 36012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," CEPR Discussion Papers 6862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Javier Díaz-Giménez & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2006. "Flat Tax Reforms In The U.S.: A Boon For The Income Poor," Working Papers wp2006_0611, CEMFI.
  4. Rafael Repullo & David Martínez-Miera, 2008. "Does Competition Reduce The Risk Of Bank Failure?," Working Papers wp2008_0801, CEMFI.
  5. Luca Agnello & Ludger Schuknecht, 2009. "Booms and busts in housing markets - determinants and implications," Working Paper Series 1071, European Central Bank.
  6. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  7. Agustin Benetrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2011. "How Housing Slumps End," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp384, IIIS.
  8. Joan Llull, 2008. "The Impact Of Immigration On Productivity," Working Papers wp2008_0802, CEMFI.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Kelly, Robert & McQuinn, Kieran, 2013. "On the hook for impaired bank lending: Do sovereign-bank inter-linkages affect the fiscal multiplier?," Research Technical Papers 01/RT/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  11. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5411

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.