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Production Targets

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  • Guillermo Caruana
  • Liran Einav

Abstract

We present a dynamic quantity setting game, where players may continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. These costs allow players to use quantity targets as a partial commitment device. We show that the equilibrium path of such a game is hump-shaped and that the final equilibrium outcome is more competitive than its static analog. We then test the theory using monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers during 1965-1995 and show that the hump-shaped dynamic pattern is present in the data. Initially, production targets steadily increase until they peak about 2-3 months before production. Then, they gradually decline to eventual production levels. This qualitative pattern is fairly robust across a range of similar exercises. We conclude that strategic considerations play a role in the planning phase in the auto industry, and that static models may therefore under-estimate the industry's competitiveness.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11958.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Publication status: published as Caruana, Guillermo and Liran Einav. “Production Targets.” Rand Journal of Economics 39, 4 (Winter 2008): 990-1017.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11958

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  1. Adam Copeland & Wendy Dunn & George Hall, 2005. "Prices, Production and Inventories over the Automotive Model Year," NBER Working Papers 11257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Saloner, Garth, 1987. "Cournot duopoly with two production periods," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 183-187, June.
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  17. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, M H, 1970. "Multiperiod Decision Models with Alternating Choice as a Solution to the Duopoly Problem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 410-29, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
  2. Javier Díaz-Giménez & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2006. "Flat Tax Reforms In The U.S.: A Boon For The Income Poor," Working Papers wp2006_0611, CEMFI.
  3. Liran Einav & S. Ravid, 2009. "Stock market response to changes in movies’ opening dates," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 311-319, November.
  4. Kao, Tina & Menezes, Flavio & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Meeting the Competition: Commitment and Competitive Behavior," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151205, University of Queensland, School of Economics.

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