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How does the down-payment constraint affect the UK housing market?

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Andrew Benito
Abstract

A house purchase typically requires a deposit (or down-payment) and so a significant amount of cash. This paper considers the empirical implications of this borrowing constraint for the housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate level, models of the housing market that incorporate the constraint are consistent with the following stylised facts: i) a positive correlation between house price inflation and transactions; ii) greater volatility of former owner-occupiers' house price inflation than for first-time buyers; iii) the presence of first-time buyers in the market falls with the rate of change of house prices; and iv) house prices are more sensitive to the incomes of the young. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets in the rate of change in house prices and considers how leverage affects the response of the rate of change of house prices to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993-2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high levels of leverage (loan to value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model of the housing market.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 294.

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  1. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Boheim, Rene & Ermisch, John, 2001. " Partnership Dissolution in the UK--The Role of Economic Circumstances," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Todd Sinai & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2003. "Owner-Occupied Housing as a Hedge Against Rent Risk," NBER Working Papers 9462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Andrew Benito, 2006. "Does job insecurity affect household consumption?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 157-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-71, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 287-303, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behaviour: Evidence from the Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 2813, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mark Andrew & Geoffrey Meen, 2003. "Housing Transactions and the Changing Decisions of Young Households in Britain: The Microeconomic Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(1), pages 117-138, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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