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Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)

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Author Info
Ortalo-Magné, François
Rady, Sven

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Abstract

We propose a life-cycle model of the housing market with a property ladder and a credit constraint. We focus on equilibria which replicate the facts that credit constraints delay some households' first home purchase and force other households to buy a home smaller than they would like. The model helps us identify a powerful driver of the housing market: the ability of young households to afford the down payment on a starter home, and in particular their income. The model also highlights a channel whereby changes in income may yield housing price overshooting, with prices of trade-up homes displaying the most volatility, and a positive correlation between housing prices and transactions. This channel relies on the capital gains or losses on starter homes incurred by credit-constrained owners. We provide empirical support for our arguments with evidence from both the U.K. and the U.S.

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Paper provided by University of Munich, Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 494.

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Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenec:494

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Related research
Keywords: Housing Demand ; Income Fluctuations ; Overlapping Generations ; Collateral Constraint;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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    Other versions:
  4. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2002. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Some Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," Centro de Alti­simos Estudios Ri­os Pe©rez(CAERP) 7, Centro de Altisimos Estudios Rios Perez (CAERP). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2003. "Financial market imperfections and home ownership: A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(5), pages 857-875, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Green, Richard & Hendershott, Patric H., 1996. "Age, housing demand, and real house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 465-480, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2001. "Aging and Housing Equity: Another Look," NBER Working Papers 8608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 1615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Barton A. Smith & William P. Tesarek, 1991. "House Prices and Regional Real Estate Cycles: Market Adjustments in Houston," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(3), pages 396-416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Donald R. Haurin & Susan M. Wachter & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Wealth Accumulation and Housing Choices of Young Households: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andrew Caplin & Sewin Chan & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1997. "Housing Partnerships: A New Approach to a Market at a Crossroads," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032430.
  15. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 1999. "Boom in, bust out: Young households and the housing price cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 755-766, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1990. "But They Don't Want to Reduce Housing Equity," NBER Working Papers 2859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. William C. Wheaton, 1999. "Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 209-230. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Ortalo-Magne, Francois & Rady, Sven, 2004. "Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 287-303, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2002. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 9382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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