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Production Targets

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  • Guillermo Caruana
  • Liran Einav

    ()
    (Economics Stanford University)

Abstract

We present a dynamic quantity setting game, where players may continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. These costs allow players to use quantity targets as a partial commitment device. We show that the equilibrium path of such a game is hump-shaped and that the final equilibrium outcome is more competitive than its static analog. We then test the theory using monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers during 1965-1995 and show that the hump-shaped dynamic pattern is present in the data. Initially, production targets steadily increase until they peak about 2-3 months before production. Then, they gradually decline to eventual production levels. This qualitative pattern is fairly robust across a range of similar exercises. We conclude that strategic considerations play a role in the planning phase in the auto industry, and that static models may therefore under-estimate the industry's competitiveness.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 16.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:16

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Keywords: Differential games; adjustment costs; Cournot; quantity competition; dynamic oligopoly games;

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  1. Maura P. Doyle & Christopher M. Snyder, 1997. "Information sharing and competition in the motor vehicle industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  10. Guillermo Caruana & Liran Einav, 2008. "A Theory of Endogenous Commitment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 99-116.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Liran Einav & S. Ravid, 2009. "Stock market response to changes in movies’ opening dates," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 311-319, November.
  2. Kao, Tina & Menezes, Flavio & Quiggin, John, 2012. "Meeting the Competition: Commitment and Competitive Behavior," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151205, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  3. Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
  4. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2006. "Flat Tax Reforms in the U.S.: a Boon for the Income Poor," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 400, Society for Computational Economics.

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