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Insights on the global macro-finance interface: Structural sources of risk factors fluctuations and the cross-section of expected stock returns

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  • Claudio Morana

Abstract

This study contributes to the investigation of the macro-finance interface by assessing the economic content and risk based interpretation of widely employed risk factors in the specification of empirical asset pricing models, i.e., Fama-French size and value, and Carhart momentum factors, as well as the more recent Pastor-Stambaugh liquidity and Adrian-Etula-Muir leverage factors. Strong support for their risk based interpretation, encompassing evidence on causes, persistence and direction of the size, value and momentum effects, and new insights on the specification of systematic risk, are provided.

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper264.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 264.

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Length: 74
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision: Dec 2013
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:264

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Keywords: macro-…nance interface; risk factors; size; value; momentum liquidity and leverage effects; factor vector autoregressive model;

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  1. Tarun Chordia & Lakshmanan Shivakumar, 2002. "Momentum, Business Cycle, and Time-varying Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 985-1019, 04.
  2. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
  3. Canova, Fabio & De Nicolo', Gianni, 1995. "Stock returns and real activity: A structural approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 981-1015, May.
  4. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  5. Ralitsa Petkova, 2006. "Do the Fama-French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 581-612, 04.
  6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
  7. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-93, Sept.-Oct.
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  9. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2004. "Breaks and Persistency: Macroeconomic Causes of Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 20, SEMEQ Department - Faculty of Economics - University of Eastern Piedmont.
  11. Michael J. Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez & Allaudeen Hameed, 2004. "Market States and Momentum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1345-1365, 06.
  12. Koijen, Ralph & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2012. "The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 9024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  14. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Amit Seru & Noah Stoffman, 2012. "Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 17769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Christopher Polk & Robert Turley, 2012. "An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 18411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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