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Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada

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Ce texte discute de la mesure, des causes et des conséquences de l'endettement public et revoit divers indicateurs d'endettement, de solvabilité et de prudence fiscale. Après avoir présenté une analyse descriptive et comparative de la situation de la dette publique des gouvernements au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde, nous évaluons la solvabilité des gouvernements au Canada. Finalement, nous construisons des indicateurs de prudence fiscale pour les gouvernements fédéral et québécois qui révèlent dans quelle mesure les politiques financières poursuivies ont été insoutenables. This paper discusses the measurement, the causes and the implication of public indebtedness. Several indicators of indebtedness, solvency and fiscal prudence are also reviewed. Having presented a descriptive and comparative analysis of public indebtedness of the various levels of government in Canada and elsewhere, we assess the solvency of governments in Canada. Finally, we construct indicators of fiscal prudence for the Federal and the Quebec governments that reveal to which extent the fiscal policies that were followed were unsustainable.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 59.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:59

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Keywords: Public debt; Fiscal prudence; Canada;

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References

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  1. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
  2. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
  3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
  4. Trostel, Philip A., 1993. "The nonequivalence between deficits and distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 207-227, April.
  5. James D. Hamilton & Marjorie A. Flavin, 1985. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," NBER Working Papers 1632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
  7. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Scholarly Articles 3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Willem H. Buiter & Urjit R. Patel, 1990. "Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finances of India," NBER Working Papers 3287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "Politiques économiques et intégration des marchés financiers: que pouvons-nous apprendre des différentiels de taux d'intérêt?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal 52, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  11. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
  12. S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "The optimal quantity of debt," Working Papers 538, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1992. "How little we know about deficit policy effects," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  15. Perron, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Does Gnp Have a Unit Root? a Reevaluation," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 8640, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  16. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  17. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bohn, Henning, 1995. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 257-71, February.
  19. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Carroll, Chris & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Why have private savings rates in the United States and Canada diverged?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-279, September.
  21. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1986. "Principles of fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-134, January.
  22. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
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