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Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada

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Ce texte discute de la mesure, des causes et des conséquences de l'endettement public et revoit divers indicateurs d'endettement, de solvabilité et de prudence fiscale. Après avoir présenté une analyse descriptive et comparative de la situation de la dette publique des gouvernements au Canada et ailleurs dans le monde, nous évaluons la solvabilité des gouvernements au Canada. Finalement, nous construisons des indicateurs de prudence fiscale pour les gouvernements fédéral et québécois qui révèlent dans quelle mesure les politiques financières poursuivies ont été insoutenables. This paper discusses the measurement, the causes and the implication of public indebtedness. Several indicators of indebtedness, solvency and fiscal prudence are also reviewed. Having presented a descriptive and comparative analysis of public indebtedness of the various levels of government in Canada and elsewhere, we assess the solvency of governments in Canada. Finally, we construct indicators of fiscal prudence for the Federal and the Quebec governments that reveal to which extent the fiscal policies that were followed were unsustainable.

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File URL: http://www.unites.uqam.ca/eco/CREFE/cahiers/cah59.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal in its series Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers with number 59.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:59

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Keywords: Public debt; Fiscal prudence; Canada;

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1986. "Principles of fiscal and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 117-134, January.
  2. Chris Carroll & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Why Have Private Saving Rates in the United States and Canada Diverged?," NBER Working Papers 2319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "Politiques économiques et intégration des marchés financiers: que pouvons-nous apprendre des différentiels de taux d'intérêt?," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 52, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  4. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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  7. Perron, P. & Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Does Gnp Have a Unit Root? a Reevaluation," Cahiers de recherche 8640, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Buiter, Willem H & Patel, U, 1990. "Debt, Deficits and Inflation: An Application to the Public Finance of India," CEPR Discussion Papers 408, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Government Solvency: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 3658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
  12. Preston J. Miller & William Roberds, 1992. "How little we know about deficit policy effects," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
  13. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
  15. S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "The optimum quantity of debt," Staff Report 203, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
  17. Trostel, Philip A., 1993. "The nonequivalence between deficits and distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 207-227, April.
  18. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  19. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Optimal Debt Management," NBER Working Papers 5327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Government financing decisions and asset returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 325-352.
  21. Paul Fenton & Alain Paquet, 1997. "International Interest Rate Differentials: The Interaction with Fiscal and Monetary Variables, and the Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 56, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jan 1998.
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