Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply
AbstractThe Federal Reserve’s 2009 program to purchase $300 billion of US Treasury securities represented an unprecedented intervention in the Treasury market and provides a natural experiment with the potential to shed light on the price elasticities of Treasuries and theories of supply effects in the term structure. Using security-level data on Treasury prices and quantities during the course of this program, we document a ‘local supply’ effect in the yield curve—yields within a particular maturity sector responded more to changes in the amounts outstanding in that sector than to similar changes in other sectors. We find that this phenomenon was responsible for a persistent downward shift in yields averaging about 30 basis points over the course of the program (the “stock effect”). In addition, except at very long maturities, purchase operations caused an average decline in yields in the sector purchased of 3.5 basis points on the days when those operations occurred (the “flow effect”). The sensitivity of our results to security characteristics generally supports a view of segmentation or imperfect substitution within the Treasury market during this time.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 108 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576
Yield curve; Quantitative easing; LSAP; Preferred habitat; Limits of arbitrage;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
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- Falagiarda, Matteo, 2013. "Evaluating Quantitative Easing: A DSGE Approach," MPRA Paper 49457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Price effects of sovereign debt auctions in the Euro-zone: the role of the crisis," Working Paper Series 1595, European Central Bank.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2013. "Price Effects of Sovereign Debt Auctions in the Euro-zone: The Role of the Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-150/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
- Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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